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Conquest But No Success
Charley Reese
President Bush's objectives in Iraq are plain: 1. Invade and conquer. 2. Set up an interim government. 3. End the sanctions. 4. Assign contracts for rebuilding and developing oil resources. 5. Obtain long-term military access to bases.
I figure he'll get two out of five. The first one is already a fait accompli. We did invade, and we did conquer. He's already assigned a contract to Bechtel to do the rebuilding. That's his two. They're still diddling around on the interim government, and my bet is that the Iraqi people won't accept it. Nor, I'll bet, will a genuine Iraqi government grant the United States long-term access to military bases. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld denies we even want permanent access, but I'm sorry, his credibility is not good. He likes to play word games. Do I believe him? No.
As for lifting the sanctions in order to let the oil flow to pay Bechtel (a multinational corporation that is embedded in the U.S. government), never let it be said that the Russians don't have a sense of humor. Only the United Nations Security Council, the same one President Bush treated with contempt, can lift the sanctions. For more than a decade, the United States has insisted on sanctions on the grounds that Iraq has banned weapons of mass destruction. Now, despite not having found any, Bush wants the sanctions lifted anyway.
Nyet, said the Russians, not until the U.N. arms inspectors certify that Iraq is free of weapons of mass destruction will we agree to lift the sanctions. I don't see how they kept a straight face. They might relent after a little backroom bargaining. The French say they are willing to suspend, but not lift, the sanctions. It's got to make the Bush administration uncomfortable to have to bargain with the Security Council — the administration was so contemptuous of the U.N. arms inspectors.
Now, with the whole country laid open to them like a shucked oyster, the Bushies can't find so much as one drop of nerve gas or one vial of anthrax, both of which were supposed to exist in the tons, according to the Bush people. Bush is going to learn the hard way to be careful whom you insult, because you might need them later on. He should also learn that U.S. intelligence on the whole still lacks credibility.
And please, don't let the Bush administration con you into blaming Saddam Hussein for the suffering caused by the sanctions. From Day One, people opposed to the sanctions, including me, pointed out that economic sanctions only hurt the common people, never the government. The government always gets the first bite of any apple available, plus, of course, it will control and profit from all the smuggling. So of course Saddam and his cronies lived in luxury. Every administration in Washington has always known that. One can only conclude that the administrations wanted the people of Iraq to suffer. Well, they did.
And they know whom to blame. When you have more than 100,000 people marching down the street, one week after liberation, saying no to Saddam, no to the United States and no to Israel, it shows that the Iraqi people are pretty sophisticated. They know the score. Every day that passes, Americans will be less welcomed in Iraq, and I wouldn't take lightly the warning of an Iraqi cleric who said, "You should leave before we force you out."
An army that won't fight is one thing. Twenty million people willing to stab you in the back, cut your throat or toss a grenade in your soup are quite another. Our Army is trained and equipped to fight set battles against other armies. It is not trained to cope with a hostile civilian population. It will not do well, and if we insist on staying, the Iraqis will force us out, just as the Lebanese forced the Israeli army out.
And remember, life isn't a TV show. The plot won't unfold rapidly. Slowly and gradually our victory over Saddam will turn to dust, and all those snazzy plans of the arrogant neoconservatives for a new, enlightened Middle East will turn to ashes. The Middle East is full of the ruins of superpowers.