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Subject: Re: OOC schedules for 2017


Author:
voy vey
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Date Posted: 12:33:24 01/26/17 Thu
In reply to: Go Green 's message, "OOC schedules for 2017" on 08:12:43 01/25/17 Wed

Using Sagarin ratings for 2016, analysis below. Apologies in advance for the lousy formatting of text on this board.
Schools sorted by strength of average OoC opponent (includes home field adjustments).
First number = avg OoC opponent (including HFA)
Second number = Sagarin rating of own team
Third number = average spread fav/dog vs. OoC

Keep in mind that one team can skew a three-team average -- like Lehigh or SD on the high side, or Stetson on the low side. In other words, in this table, two weak opponents plus Lehigh would look tougher than it really is; two solid opponents plus Stetson would look easier than reality.

Yale,,,,,,46.08,,,,,,32.12,,,,,,-13.96
Cornell,,,,,,42.25,,,,,,31.14,,,,,,-11.11
Penn,,,,,,36.62,,,,,,46.64,,,,,,10.02
Princeton,,,,,,35.91,,,,,,54.26,,,,,,18.35
Dartmouth,,,,,,30.54,,,,,,35.57,,,,,,5.03
Columbia,,,,,,30.33,,,,,,32.38,,,,,,2.05
Harvard,,,,,,30.1,,,,,,39.39,,,,,,9.29
Brown,,,,,,29.96,,,,,,28.47,,,,,,-1.49

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Replies:
[> [> Subject: Re: OOC schedules for 2017


Author:
Son of Eli
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Date Posted: 20:46:52 01/26/17 Thu

Thanks for the interesting analysis Voy Vey.

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[> [> [> Subject: Re: OOC schedules for 2017


Author:
voy vey
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Date Posted: 15:49:35 01/30/17 Mon

Other trivia.

school.....rating of avg OoC opponent......projected record in OoC games (based on YE 2016 Sagarin w/ home-field for game site)

Yale,,,,,,,,,46.08,,,,,,1-2
Cornell,,,,,,42.25,,,,,,0-3
Penn,,,,,,,,,36.62,,,,,,2-1
Princeton,,,,,,35.91,,,,,,3-0
Dartmouth,,,,,,30.54,,,,,,2-1
Columbia,,,,,,30.33,,,,,,2-1
Harvard,,,,,,30.10,,,,,,3-0
Brown,,,,,,,,29.96,,,,,,1-2

Yale is the only team playing 3 Patriot League schools.
Brown is the only team playing NO Patriot League schools.

Ivies will play:
12 games against the Patriot League
5 games against the Pioneer League
4 games against the Northeast Conference
2 games against the Colonial Athletic Assn.

12 OoC games at Ivy sites, 12 OoC games on the road.

Average Ivy team rating: 37.50
Average OoC opponent rating: 36.76
Average weighted OoC opponent rating (adjusted for # of times played): 35.22

Georgetown plays 3 Ivies.
Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, Stetson and URI play 2 Ivies.
From the Patriot League- Bucknell, Colgate and Fordham only play 1 Ivy.

Biggest "stretch" game: Yale @ Lehigh (23.85 pt spread)
Biggest "cupcake" game: Georgetown @ Princeton (30.78 pt spread)
"Best" game: San Diego (54.08) @ Princeton (54.26)
Honorable mention: Penn (46.64) @ Lehigh (53.84)
Biggest "can-miss" game: Brown (28.47) @ Stetson (19.50)

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[> [> [> [> Subject: I would assume


Author:
holtsledge
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Date Posted: 16:02:38 01/30/17 Mon

that Dartmouth @ Stetson is a "can miss" as well

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[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: OOC schedules for 2017


Author:
Calvin
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Date Posted: 16:46:09 01/30/17 Mon

Wouldn't "biggest cupcake" be same as biggest "can't miss"?

What makes one tastier (sorry) than the other?

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: OOC schedules for 2017


Author:
voy vey
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Date Posted: 17:09:50 01/30/17 Mon

"Cupcake" = biggest differential between the two teams. E.G., biggest blowout.

"Can Miss" = two teams of low-ranking in the same game.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: OOC schedules for 2017


Author:
voy vey
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Date Posted: 17:15:50 01/30/17 Mon

"Best game" = the game with the highest combined power rating for the two teams.
"Can Miss" = the game w/ the lowest combined power rating.

"Cupcake" = biggest predicted margin of victory for the Ivy school.
"Stretch" = biggest predicted margin of defeat for the Ivy school.

One correction" Ivies play 3 games vs. CAA (not 2).

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Got it


Author:
Calvin
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Date Posted: 18:14:38 01/30/17 Mon

Misread "can"

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Ok


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 21:53:11 01/30/17 Mon


"Can Miss" means lowest rated, not biggest blowout.

Because, you know, Stetson beat Brown last fall.

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