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Subject: Re: Interesting, but I don't think that will pacify EB fans

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Date Posted: 09:51:46 03/21/17 Tue
In reply to: mrjames 's message, "Re: Interesting, but I don't think that will pacify EB fans" on 08:59:18 03/21/17 Tue

It must be said though: without counting stats, there are no ratio/analytical stats. You can't do advanced analytics on the eye test.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Interesting, but I don't think that will pacify EB fans

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Date Posted: 11:06:42 03/21/17 Tue

Not so much anymore. It indeed used to be that advanced stats were merely contextualized box score stats, adjusted for rates and pace. Now, however, there are a bevy analytical metrics that are based on play-by-play crunching that would never appear in a box score and with the advent of player tracking cameras, many metrics based on things that don't even appear in the play-by-play. Coaches have assistants that are charting many of these same metrics in the absence of those player tracking cameras. The explosion of metrics has specifically grown on the defensive end.

Things have gotten a lot more sophisticated than linear weights being applied to box score stats to determine player output via regression analysis. While coaches vary in their level of sophistication and use of such metrics (and how they combine them with their film study), folks on their staff are certainly aware of them and they're prevalent enough that players aren't as known anymore just by their counting stat numbers.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Interesting, but I don't think that will pacify EB fans

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Date Posted: 11:38:33 03/21/17 Tue

Charting = Counting.

Counting stats are still important.

At the end of the day, you win by scoring more points, not by getting more deck burns or actualizing help rotations.

Not arguing that gross points are the only metric that counts for player evaluation, but to deny their importance is just as asinine as to suggest that "athleticism" is more important than "skill".

It all matters.

Would Boudreaux rack up 20-10 for Princeton? No. Would he be a good player in their system? Who knows. Is he a lesser player because he didn't have Amir Bell, Devin Cannady, Myles Stephens and Stephen Weisz on his side of the ball as opposed to being on the other team - absolutely not.

Nothing exists in a vacuum. Cook and Weisz shouldn't be evaluated as superior because their teammates on aggregate were more talented; Boudreaux shouldn't be penalized because he was clearly the best player on a bad team.

Obviously, Dan Marino is a worse quarterback than Jim Plunkett. And Patrick Ewing was a much worse basketball player than Robert Horry. etc. etc. etc.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Interesting, but I don't think that will pacify EB fans

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Date Posted: 14:31:12 03/21/17 Tue

Funny you should mention Rob Johnson, because I lived in Jacksonville at that time, and I remember Jacksonville deciding whether to sign or trade Rob. They ultimately traded him, since they realized they'd stick with Brunell.

I do a ton of work on advanced metrics on my own - enough to demonstrate that he's not a first teamer, but you're right that I don't know exactly what each staff is looking at.

What's also weird about this whole argument is that I think that we're missing the context on what it means to be a Top 10 player in this league. Devin Cannady and Matt Howard would be first teamers a decade ago, and they were honorable mention this year. A decade ago, the season Evan put together is probably unanimous first team. The league is just WAY better, and the talent level is ridiculously high. Being a Top 10 player as a freshman and sophomore is pretty incredible. And I fully expect him to be a first team player next year.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Mr. James' Metrics and Rob Johnson

Diogenes (mrjames)
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Date Posted: 11:54:42 03/21/17 Tue

Your posts are always well reasoned and much appreciated.

Except as you've described them, I'm not familiar with many of the metrics which you say favor others and disfavor Boudreaux. Accordingly, not knowing the actual comparative results of those metrics, I can't comment on them and will have to take your word for it.

On the other hand, I have the feeling that you don't know the exact results of those comparative metrics and, instead, are simply assuming that the metrics disfavor Boudreaux because some coach, or coaches, did not favor him with a First Team vote. Is that a fair assumption?

Many today have forgotten Rob Johnson and his metrics. He was a QB from USC who signed with the Bills for $25,000,000 after he blew up the NFL Combine with his "metrics".

Johnson ran faster, jumped higher, jumped further, did the cones and other drills better, was more accurate and had better velocity than any other QB. He was articulate, poised, intelligent and handsome. He had no bad habits and all the girls loved him. There was only one thing wrong with Johnson: he wasn't a very good NFL football player. Although he could take a hit and didn't flinch from contact, he couldn't play the game and see the field at NFL speed. Great metrics, great guy, no football. Bye, bye $25,000,000. Bye, bye metrics.

Boudreaux has pre-eminent traditional stats. What doesn't show up in those stats is that, unlike many stars, he is a fine teammate and plays within the designed offenses and defenses. That counts for a lot and, so far as I know, is not measured by any metric.

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