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Subject: Re: Dartmouth loses good one


Author:
Jerrylh
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Date Posted: 12:34:07 06/19/17 Mon
In reply to: holtsledge 's message, "Dartmouth loses good one" on 09:39:28 06/19/17 Mon

I know that I am being hard on him, but where is his brain??
Yes North Carolina is a perfectly good school. But it isn't Dartmouth. Yes, his brother played there and yes I understand the connection In 4 years he will be walking out with a North Carolina degree and not a Dartmouth degree.
In my humble opinion, this young man is making a huge mistake.

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[> Subject: Re: Dartmouth loses good one


Author:
Sprint66
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Date Posted: 21:55:45 06/19/17 Mon

Walker Miller may be a good high school player, but he better start hitting the weight room whether he plays basketball in the Ivy or ACC conferences. Looking at his photo he may be tall, but Division I will eat you alive if you don't have some muscle on your frame.

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[> [> Subject: Re: Dartmouth loses good one


Author:
holtsledge
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Date Posted: 09:39:52 06/20/17 Tue

he acknowledges that in the article. I just don't get it though these kids chasing big time dream ( Collins from Penn) and they will probably never see the court/field giving up on Ivy education although both schools are fine institutions. We sure could have used him to take pressure off of Evan B

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[> [> [> Subject: btw


Author:
holtsledge
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Date Posted: 09:41:39 06/20/17 Tue

do they red shirt in B Ball? if so kid could always transfer down back to Dartmouth if he sees his dream slipping away

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[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: btw


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 10:14:35 06/20/17 Tue


That's what I was thinking. Presumably, he will figure out pretty quickly that he's out of his league at Carolina and if he wants to actually play D-I games, he's probably better off at Dartmouth.

The free tickets he will get to Carolina games at the Dean Dome are nice, but ultimately won't be worth it...

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: what about redshirt


Author:
holtsledge
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Date Posted: 10:48:20 06/20/17 Tue

yes or no

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Yes


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 10:56:06 06/20/17 Tue


Pretty sure the NCAA allows redshirting in all sports-- five years to compete in four seasons.

Whether or not your particular league limits it is the issue.

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[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: btw


Author:
Calvin
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Date Posted: 10:39:19 06/20/17 Tue

Will it be worth it if he gets his NC trophy? From watching the TV, it doesn't seem like being a reserve bothers too many players who storm the court after winning the big one.

Plus, and not that they are equal, it seems like he has a better chance of getting that trophy than an Ivy championship.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Not according to some people...


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 10:53:53 06/20/17 Tue


All we have to do is take fourth, qualify for the Ivy tournament, and then its complete random chance from there.

:)

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Based on past performances


Author:
Calvin
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Date Posted: 11:07:54 06/20/17 Tue

Fourth place hardly seems likely.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Yep


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 11:21:44 06/20/17 Tue


It wasn't like we were still alive for the tournament on the last day of the regular season or that we're bringing everyone of significance back for 2017-18.

No, sir.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Yep


Author:
Calvin
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Date Posted: 12:21:16 06/20/17 Tue

UNC winning the NC seems more likely to me than DC getting 4th in the ivies next year.

I suspect few people would agree with you that DC will be improved versus the top 4 from last year. If you didn't notice, #4 Penn got a lot better as the season went on and they have solid recruits coming in; their trajectory looks good. Columbia has a solid recruiting class, some claim it as the League's best. If I were you (oh Lord, the humanity), I'd be worried about Cornell passing DC in the near future. You seem to ignore that "everyone of significance" produced a 4-10 record, after all.

Ultimately the question isn't what you or I think, it's what the player thinks. "Hmmmm, possibly sneaking in a 4th place in the ivies with a losing record and then a long shot at the ivy championship, versus a very good shot at the National Championship. How to decide?" Not a hard calculus from the basketball perspective that seems to be motivating him.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Yep


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 12:41:13 06/20/17 Tue

Gotta go with Calvin on this one.

North Carolina played in the last two national championships game. It took a Kris Jenkins buzzer beater to lose the first one. The Tar Heels are not too far from being the two-time defending national champion as we speak.

Sure, a national championship sounds like more of a reach than a mere Ivy title. But programs like the Tar Heels can realistically think that way more than Dartmouth can realistically think of an Ivy trophy, or even playing at The Palestra next March.

Alabama football will win its next national championship before Dartmouth football wins its next Ivy title. You can book it.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: You brought it up, not me


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 12:49:45 06/20/17 Tue


I'll take Dartmouth achieving fourth over any single team winning the NC next season.

Penn should indeed be improved next season. Maybe even good enough to earn a split against Dartmouth.

Should also add that if you want to ask someone whether its more fun to be scrub for a NC or join probably-not-ready-for-prime-time Dartmouth, we can always go ask an expert:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crawford_Palmer

And this is a guy who actually did see playing time--albeit not much--for the reigning ACC power.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: You brought it up, not me


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 12:52:48 06/20/17 Tue

I think that the right expert to consult on this question is Andrew Hatch.

"Andrew, which option would you be more willing to forego? Telling prospective employers about your Harvard degree or recounting to attractive young women stories of your winning the national championship at LSU?"

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Extrapolation for $100, Alex


Author:
Clavin
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Date Posted: 15:40:39 06/20/17 Tue

I never cease to be amazed how, with an apparent straight face, you construct arguments based on what someone else says or did, ergo it must be true for everyone else, too. Law school, even in western PA, must provide some powerful antidote to common sense.

Crawford Palmer is (was, 30 years ago) his own case. Walker Miller is his own case. Young Mr. Miller has made his decision, right or wrong (I think basketball is the wrong standard, but I'm neither 18 nor Mr. Miller). He has decided the chance of sneaking into that ivy tournament does not equal his chance of being on a NC team. I doubt a phone call from Palmer would change his mind.

Here's an offer for you, if you are truly serious (versus merely being argumentative because you love arguing). If Dartmouth finishes 4th or higher in the League next year, I will cease posting for 3 months. If they don't, you will cease for 3 months. Deal?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: How about this?


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 15:56:19 06/20/17 Tue


Pick any college basketball team you want. Duke, UNC, Gonzaga, whoever.

If they finish closer to winning the NC than Dartmouth does finishing fourth in the Ivy, I will stop posting for three months. If Dartmouth is closer, then you stop for three months.

And if your team wins the NC and Dartmouth finishes fourth or better, then its a draw.

Deal?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Mutual suicide pacts don't work well for either party


Author:
Diogenes
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Date Posted: 16:17:10 06/20/17 Tue


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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: I've got my popcorn


Author:
sparman
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Date Posted: 20:24:14 06/20/17 Tue

I thought Dartmouth guys liked a good food fight? Are you telling me Animal House was inaccurate?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: My offer was simple and clear


Author:
Calvin
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Date Posted: 17:32:02 06/20/17 Tue

How could anyone ever determine how a team finishes "closer"? Why try to complicate matters or leave a lawyer's "out"?

If you are so certain, then say yes to my very simple and unambiguous offer. If you don't accept, it's clear you don't truly believe what you have claimed.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: You mean this?


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 18:35:16 06/20/17 Tue


"I'll take Dartmouth achieving fourth over any single team winning the NC next season."

Which of course was in response to your claim that "UNC winning the NC seems more likely to me than DC getting 4th in the ivies next year."

Even AO thinks you should take the bet.

As for "closer," what exactly was your definition when you made your claim that UNC was more likely to win the NC than Dartmouth was to take fourth?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Based on past performances


Author:
Diogenes
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Date Posted: 11:35:43 06/20/17 Tue

Dartmouth showed excellent improvement last year. If that leads to continued progress, fourth place is well within reach.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: UNC is a mecca for athletes


Author:
al's wingman
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Date Posted: 14:53:52 06/20/17 Tue

...at least it used to be before the football grades scandal. UNC has historically lavished student athletes with lots of perks. It is a great place for a mid level bball player to sit on a plush bench and live very well.

I'm no fan though I don't begrudge them for taking advantage of every nook and cranny of legal and borderline "legal" stretch of the imagination possible to be competitive in as many sports as they can - since the 70s.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: UNC is a mecca for athletes


Author:
Drew2411
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Date Posted: 17:35:04 06/20/17 Tue

Football grades scandal? The African American Independent Studies scam was developed by and for UNC men's basketball full stop. Every key player on 05 and 09 took advantage of scam.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: UNC is a mecca for athletes


Author:
al's wingman
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Date Posted: 19:02:56 06/20/17 Tue

the fake classes covered a few sports. for an allegedly prestigious university they had a passion for winning at any cost.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: UNC is a mecca for athletes


Author:
Drew2411
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Date Posted: 19:21:29 06/21/17 Wed

True...once it was put in place, women's soccer, basketball, football and baseball took advantage but it was created for men's hoop

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: UNC is a mecca for athletes


Author:
Al's Wingman
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Date Posted: 23:05:20 06/21/17 Wed

woah, women's soccer? seriously? I have a history in the sport having been a coach and financier of amateur teams. I know head coach (since the 70s) Anson Dorrance and 100% certain he would never allow that with any of his players. On the average, women's soccer players are good students and don't need fraud to get by. They welcome a full scholarship of course but they earn it.

UNC used to completely dominate women's DI soccer. The rest of the pack has caught up. West Virginia beat them in the tournament this year. There was a time the very thought of that would be laughed at.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: UNC is a mecca for athletes


Author:
Drew2411
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Date Posted: 18:11:44 06/23/17 Fri

Read the Weinstein Report...Anson personally has emails pushing for these faux independent classes. Some will say the reason for the fall off in UNC soccer is tied to the crack down on these classes.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: UNC is a mecca for athletes


Author:
Al's Wingman
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Date Posted: 21:27:33 06/24/17 Sat

I didn't deep dive into that report but I'm not seeing anything glaring or definitive. Any way it is looked at it is a largely bogus claim to include women's soccer in that scandal. That program has absolutely at no time ever needed to rely on anything fraudulent to recruit and retain top talent. Perhaps most telling is the fake classes were set up specifically in the afro-american dept. Not to be insensitive but that diminishes the pool of possible women's soccer students involved. It just doesn't add up. The process is a student athlete gets admitted to the program the same as any student. There's just no scenario that would put a student athlete in a situation that is different from her peers in the soccer program.

I know Anson Dorrance has his detractors but he's far from dumb. He wouldn't risk his career on anything like that. What's in it for any coach to do that unless they needed the talent enrolled at any cost?

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[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: btw


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 12:01:44 06/20/17 Tue

Since hitting the high-water mark in the Pomeroy era in 14-15 (No. 168 nationally), Dartmouth has dropped ~70 spots a season to No. 305 last year.

I'm on board with Dartmouth improving in 17-18, but the Big Green is miles away from where the top four will be. That they went 4-10 with a -12.5 EM in Ivy play took some pretty good luck in close games, but shouldn't obscure the fact that they were 3 or 4 pts per 100 poss worse in Ivy play than the other two teams with which they finished tied for last.

The target to be a team favored to finish in the Top 4 this year is going to be somewhere around No. 150 and probably needs to be at least in the No. 200 range to have a decent shot. That means Dartmouth has to improve by over 100 spots year-over-year. That is a tall task, especially with a recruiting class that will provide a little help, but not a ton.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Fairness dicates...


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 13:59:43 06/20/17 Tue


If you're going to knock Dartmouth for "lucky" wins, fairness dictates that you acknowledge that three of our league losses were by five (twice) and four points.

Had a couple of shots fallen differently, we could have been 7-7.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Two excellent forwards will help Boudreaux, plus an international point guard


Author:
Diogenes
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Date Posted: 15:15:49 06/20/17 Tue

Dartmouth recruited well at point guard and forward. A couple of rising sophomores made big strides last year. Dartmouth beat Penn twice in 2017. As long as Boudreaux stays healthy, the Big Green will be tough next year.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dicates...


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 17:02:53 06/20/17 Tue

Dartmouth lost six Ivy games by double-digits and avoided its seventh by scoring the final 9 points of the game to lose by 9.

They had seven games decided by 5 or fewer points and went 4-3 in those games. For a team that was an underdog in 12-of-14 Ivy games (a favorite by 1.5 twice and never a dog by fewer than 4.5 in the other 12), going 4-3 in close games is a fortunate outcome. Positing that they could have gone 7-0 as being more fair is ridiculous.

Dartmouth had the worst Adjusted Efficiency Margin of any Ivy for the season (-12.89, next worse was -9.84) and the worst EM in Ivy play, as mentioned previously. The most confident thing I can say about the Big Green is that it was very consistently the worst team in the league last year.

If your argument is that they will be really bad again, but insane amounts of luck in close games could keep them somewhat close to fourth, that's a completely fair take. But they are very, very, very, very far from being the fourth best team in the Ivy in terms of objective measures of quality.

A decade or so ago, Ivies ranked in the Bottom 100 nationally could post above-.500 records in league play (one even cracked 10 wins). But this decade, ZERO teams from outside the Top 200 nationally have posted an above-.500 record in Ivy play. None. More Top 200 teams have finished outside the top 4 (5: Cornell 2011, Columbia 2012, Columbia 2013, Brown 2014, Columbia 2015) than non-Top 200 teams finishing inside the Top 4 (2: Yale 2010, Brown 2013).

Dartmouth finished in the 300s this season. How is it supposed to be competitive in that caliber of league?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dicates...


Author:
Diogenes (Mr. James)
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Date Posted: 19:42:32 06/20/17 Tue

Thank you for those stats. They are undoubtedly correct and illuminating. The question is the relevancy of those stats to the race for fourth place in a weak eight team league.

HYP are, by a wide margin, the class of the league in basketball. That being said, HYP are lower tier D-1 teams when compared to the teams in the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big 12, PAC-10 and even the A-10. That HYP, on a given day, can give top teams a good game and occasionally beat one of them, doesn't mean that HYP are on a level with the top teams.

The bottom five Ivy teams have more in common with each other than they do with HYP. Accordingly, how any of the bottom five fares against HYP is much less pertinent than how the bottom five compete with each other.

Last year, Dartmouth beat Penn twice. Penn was the fourth place team. Dartmouth split with Columbia and Brown. Cornell beat Dartmouth twice. That tells me that, notwithstanding the dreadful statistics you cite, Dartmouth was as competitive as any of the other bottom five in the race for the championship of the bottom five, otherwise known as fourth place.

Dartmouth showed great improvement last season, has the best player in the League, two much improved sophomores, two outstanding incoming forwards and an incoming international point guard.

There is every reason to believe that Dartmouth will be quite competitive in the bottom five and perhaps, with some luck, get one or more wins against HYP.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dicates...


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 10:15:10 06/21/17 Wed

Penn is miles better than Dartmouth. What happened in two games shouldn't overshadow the fact that Penn was about 12 pts per 100 poss better than Dartmouth for the season. That's a significant difference. And, assuming Williams is healthy, Penn's incoming class is much better than Dartmouth's (though I do like a couple of Dartmouth's pieces, especially Chris Knight).

As for the HYP comment relative to power conference leagues, I guess it depends on what you mean. The average Ivy champion this decade would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack in those power conferences, and sometimes the Ivy has had a second team that compares favorably to middle-pack power conference teams. There really hasn't been an Ivy that could challenge the best teams from a power conference, but we've had more champions than not with KenPom ratings in the 30s/40s/50s, which would make them very competitive amongst the middle of those conferences. The Ivy League is 4-4 in R64 NCAA games this decade with three of the four losses at the buzzer. Harvard is 8-1 in MTEs this decade, including a win over a Top 75 team in each. Again, I agree that no Ivy team has played at a Top 25 level for a season - if that's what you mean. But there is a LONG way between Top 25 and lower tier D-I. Power conferences are full of Top 80 teams (many in that range post above-.500 records in power confs each year) and we've had 10 such teams over the past 8 seasons.

Of course, never have all three been on that level all at once in the same season (though this year barring injuries...), but we've had years with two, which deserves much more credit than "lower tier D-I."

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (mrjames)
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Date Posted: 16:50:44 06/21/17 Wed


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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 07:53:41 06/22/17 Thu

If you choose to ignore the litany of empirical evidence that demonstrates that two head-to-head results are far more random than a full season's worth of performance, then there's nothing more to say here.

I'm always a little surprised at how triumphantly Ivy grads thumb their nose at empirical work, though.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (mrjames)
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Date Posted: 11:52:57 06/22/17 Thu

Dartmouth is the only Ivy to have reached the final game of the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Actually, Dartmouth made two final games, losing the first to Stanford and the second to Utah.

Dartmouth made 7 NCAA tournaments.

Dartmouth is the only Ivy with a winning record in the NCAA Basketball Tournament (10-7).

Those statistics tell us that Dartmouth had excellent teams when they played in the NCAA tournament. What they do not tell us is that Dartmouth Basketball fell off a cliff when Rudy LaRusso graduated in 1959. Dartmouth has never returned to the NCAA Tournament since 1959.

In 2017, Penn was statistically superior to Dartmouth but was 0-2 against Dartmouth in the actual games played.

I'll assume you understand the point I am making.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 13:04:31 06/22/17 Thu

Your point is that you haven't done the work to empirically determine which statistics demonstrate useful descriptive and predictive ability and those that don't. Not all numbers/ stats are useful, and using the obviously trivial amongst them to argue that none are useful is as absurd as arguing from one useful relationship that all numbers/stats are thusly useful.

I have no issue with the fact that Dartmouth beat Penn twice last season. That is indeed a fact. I have issue with you using it as a basis from which to argue that Dartmouth was as good or better than Penn last season (it wasn't) and thus it has a great shot at being as good or better this season (it doesn't). Your fact from two games is orders of magnitude less predictive than the facts from the other 25 or so games those two teams played last season.

If Penn had met Dartmouth for a third time this past season, the Quakers would have been ~8.5pt favorite on a neutral floor. That's not my opinion, that's what the general model Vegas uses to post lines would say.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Eastern Sports Fan
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Date Posted: 10:15:11 06/23/17 Fri

The only meaningful statistic is a W. The Ivy League basketball team that has the most W's after playing a 14-game schedule is the best. If two teams are tied in W's after 14 games, they play one more time to settle the argument. Or, at least that was the case until this year when the bingo parlor was opened.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (Eastern Sports Fan)
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Date Posted: 14:59:01 06/23/17 Fri

Agree with you. The old format added meaning to each regular season game. New format depreciates the regular season.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
observer
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Date Posted: 19:20:32 06/23/17 Fri

The old format wasn't necessarily the best way to determine "the best team" either. A double round-robin of 14 games isn't exactly the same sample size as an 82-game NBA or 162-game MLB season.

We have all seen instances across all sports when the best team doesn't win a single game. In a relatively short season, that will happen at a higher percentage of the time than over the long haul.

That's why tournament play is appropriate for college basketball. The relatively short schedules and the number of teams demands that the "regular season" not determine a true champion.

In the absence of a statistically valid method of proving out the "best" team, both tournaments and "round-robin" formats can provide a valid champion.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 12:55:15 06/22/17 Thu


You've claimed (in some form or another) that 2016-17 Dartmouth was one of the worst teams in Ivy history, notwithstanding that we finished tied with two other teams in the standings, and notwithstanding that there is no shortage of teams that recorded fewer than 4 league wins in the history books.

So excuse us for preferring real-world results over your data.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
John Harvard
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Date Posted: 11:02:28 06/23/17 Fri

Mr. James is correctly focused on the entire body of work.

Princeton beat Harvard twice, although trailing until last second shots. Harvard could have won both games. Regardless, the season performance and all ratings correctly show that Princeton had a much better season than Harvard did. Nevertheless, the matchups made this rivalry fun to watch.

Yes, Dartmouth beat Penn twice. However, over the course of the season, Penn was rated much higher and won more games. Against common Ivy opponents, Penn was 6-6 while Dartmouth was 2-10.

Was Yale football better than Harvard last year? On one day Yale prevailed (sadly), but over the season Harvard football was better than Yale.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
Diogenes
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Date Posted: 11:37:50 06/23/17 Fri

All of which proves that, mirabile dictu, when going head to head Yale was better than Harvard, Princeton was better than Harvard and Dartmouth was better than Penn.

Too many angels dancing on the heads of too many pins.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: I was going to say that


Author:
holtsledge
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Date Posted: 21:51:53 06/21/17 Wed

Dartmouth B Ball has been lower tier forever but if you beat a team twice in a season you are the better team regardless of stats computer rankings etc

I was there circa 1970? when Harvard's James Brown (yes the NFL guy)played against Dartmouth's JB. Both were good H's was just a bit better

bring back Rudy Larusso and Paul Erland (meanest drunk you had the displeasure of encountering)

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: I would LOVE to see...


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 22:40:27 06/21/17 Wed


A mrjames analysis on football stats!

How much better was Dartmouth last season than Yale, Columbia, Harvard, and Brown???? Sure, we lost to all of them. But hey--the games were close and we had some DYNAMITE out-of-conference stats!!!!!

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