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Subject: Fairness dicates...


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 13:59:43 06/20/17 Tue
In reply to: mrjames 's message, "Re: btw" on 12:01:44 06/20/17 Tue


If you're going to knock Dartmouth for "lucky" wins, fairness dictates that you acknowledge that three of our league losses were by five (twice) and four points.

Had a couple of shots fallen differently, we could have been 7-7.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Two excellent forwards will help Boudreaux, plus an international point guard


Author:
Diogenes
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Date Posted: 15:15:49 06/20/17 Tue

Dartmouth recruited well at point guard and forward. A couple of rising sophomores made big strides last year. Dartmouth beat Penn twice in 2017. As long as Boudreaux stays healthy, the Big Green will be tough next year.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dicates...


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 17:02:53 06/20/17 Tue

Dartmouth lost six Ivy games by double-digits and avoided its seventh by scoring the final 9 points of the game to lose by 9.

They had seven games decided by 5 or fewer points and went 4-3 in those games. For a team that was an underdog in 12-of-14 Ivy games (a favorite by 1.5 twice and never a dog by fewer than 4.5 in the other 12), going 4-3 in close games is a fortunate outcome. Positing that they could have gone 7-0 as being more fair is ridiculous.

Dartmouth had the worst Adjusted Efficiency Margin of any Ivy for the season (-12.89, next worse was -9.84) and the worst EM in Ivy play, as mentioned previously. The most confident thing I can say about the Big Green is that it was very consistently the worst team in the league last year.

If your argument is that they will be really bad again, but insane amounts of luck in close games could keep them somewhat close to fourth, that's a completely fair take. But they are very, very, very, very far from being the fourth best team in the Ivy in terms of objective measures of quality.

A decade or so ago, Ivies ranked in the Bottom 100 nationally could post above-.500 records in league play (one even cracked 10 wins). But this decade, ZERO teams from outside the Top 200 nationally have posted an above-.500 record in Ivy play. None. More Top 200 teams have finished outside the top 4 (5: Cornell 2011, Columbia 2012, Columbia 2013, Brown 2014, Columbia 2015) than non-Top 200 teams finishing inside the Top 4 (2: Yale 2010, Brown 2013).

Dartmouth finished in the 300s this season. How is it supposed to be competitive in that caliber of league?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dicates...


Author:
Diogenes (Mr. James)
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Date Posted: 19:42:32 06/20/17 Tue

Thank you for those stats. They are undoubtedly correct and illuminating. The question is the relevancy of those stats to the race for fourth place in a weak eight team league.

HYP are, by a wide margin, the class of the league in basketball. That being said, HYP are lower tier D-1 teams when compared to the teams in the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big 12, PAC-10 and even the A-10. That HYP, on a given day, can give top teams a good game and occasionally beat one of them, doesn't mean that HYP are on a level with the top teams.

The bottom five Ivy teams have more in common with each other than they do with HYP. Accordingly, how any of the bottom five fares against HYP is much less pertinent than how the bottom five compete with each other.

Last year, Dartmouth beat Penn twice. Penn was the fourth place team. Dartmouth split with Columbia and Brown. Cornell beat Dartmouth twice. That tells me that, notwithstanding the dreadful statistics you cite, Dartmouth was as competitive as any of the other bottom five in the race for the championship of the bottom five, otherwise known as fourth place.

Dartmouth showed great improvement last season, has the best player in the League, two much improved sophomores, two outstanding incoming forwards and an incoming international point guard.

There is every reason to believe that Dartmouth will be quite competitive in the bottom five and perhaps, with some luck, get one or more wins against HYP.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dicates...


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 10:15:10 06/21/17 Wed

Penn is miles better than Dartmouth. What happened in two games shouldn't overshadow the fact that Penn was about 12 pts per 100 poss better than Dartmouth for the season. That's a significant difference. And, assuming Williams is healthy, Penn's incoming class is much better than Dartmouth's (though I do like a couple of Dartmouth's pieces, especially Chris Knight).

As for the HYP comment relative to power conference leagues, I guess it depends on what you mean. The average Ivy champion this decade would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack in those power conferences, and sometimes the Ivy has had a second team that compares favorably to middle-pack power conference teams. There really hasn't been an Ivy that could challenge the best teams from a power conference, but we've had more champions than not with KenPom ratings in the 30s/40s/50s, which would make them very competitive amongst the middle of those conferences. The Ivy League is 4-4 in R64 NCAA games this decade with three of the four losses at the buzzer. Harvard is 8-1 in MTEs this decade, including a win over a Top 75 team in each. Again, I agree that no Ivy team has played at a Top 25 level for a season - if that's what you mean. But there is a LONG way between Top 25 and lower tier D-I. Power conferences are full of Top 80 teams (many in that range post above-.500 records in power confs each year) and we've had 10 such teams over the past 8 seasons.

Of course, never have all three been on that level all at once in the same season (though this year barring injuries...), but we've had years with two, which deserves much more credit than "lower tier D-I."

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (mrjames)
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Date Posted: 16:50:44 06/21/17 Wed


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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 07:53:41 06/22/17 Thu

If you choose to ignore the litany of empirical evidence that demonstrates that two head-to-head results are far more random than a full season's worth of performance, then there's nothing more to say here.

I'm always a little surprised at how triumphantly Ivy grads thumb their nose at empirical work, though.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (mrjames)
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Date Posted: 11:52:57 06/22/17 Thu

Dartmouth is the only Ivy to have reached the final game of the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Actually, Dartmouth made two final games, losing the first to Stanford and the second to Utah.

Dartmouth made 7 NCAA tournaments.

Dartmouth is the only Ivy with a winning record in the NCAA Basketball Tournament (10-7).

Those statistics tell us that Dartmouth had excellent teams when they played in the NCAA tournament. What they do not tell us is that Dartmouth Basketball fell off a cliff when Rudy LaRusso graduated in 1959. Dartmouth has never returned to the NCAA Tournament since 1959.

In 2017, Penn was statistically superior to Dartmouth but was 0-2 against Dartmouth in the actual games played.

I'll assume you understand the point I am making.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
mrjames
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Date Posted: 13:04:31 06/22/17 Thu

Your point is that you haven't done the work to empirically determine which statistics demonstrate useful descriptive and predictive ability and those that don't. Not all numbers/ stats are useful, and using the obviously trivial amongst them to argue that none are useful is as absurd as arguing from one useful relationship that all numbers/stats are thusly useful.

I have no issue with the fact that Dartmouth beat Penn twice last season. That is indeed a fact. I have issue with you using it as a basis from which to argue that Dartmouth was as good or better than Penn last season (it wasn't) and thus it has a great shot at being as good or better this season (it doesn't). Your fact from two games is orders of magnitude less predictive than the facts from the other 25 or so games those two teams played last season.

If Penn had met Dartmouth for a third time this past season, the Quakers would have been ~8.5pt favorite on a neutral floor. That's not my opinion, that's what the general model Vegas uses to post lines would say.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Eastern Sports Fan
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Date Posted: 10:15:11 06/23/17 Fri

The only meaningful statistic is a W. The Ivy League basketball team that has the most W's after playing a 14-game schedule is the best. If two teams are tied in W's after 14 games, they play one more time to settle the argument. Or, at least that was the case until this year when the bingo parlor was opened.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (Eastern Sports Fan)
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Date Posted: 14:59:01 06/23/17 Fri

Agree with you. The old format added meaning to each regular season game. New format depreciates the regular season.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
observer
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Date Posted: 19:20:32 06/23/17 Fri

The old format wasn't necessarily the best way to determine "the best team" either. A double round-robin of 14 games isn't exactly the same sample size as an 82-game NBA or 162-game MLB season.

We have all seen instances across all sports when the best team doesn't win a single game. In a relatively short season, that will happen at a higher percentage of the time than over the long haul.

That's why tournament play is appropriate for college basketball. The relatively short schedules and the number of teams demands that the "regular season" not determine a true champion.

In the absence of a statistically valid method of proving out the "best" team, both tournaments and "round-robin" formats can provide a valid champion.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 12:55:15 06/22/17 Thu


You've claimed (in some form or another) that 2016-17 Dartmouth was one of the worst teams in Ivy history, notwithstanding that we finished tied with two other teams in the standings, and notwithstanding that there is no shortage of teams that recorded fewer than 4 league wins in the history books.

So excuse us for preferring real-world results over your data.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
John Harvard
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Date Posted: 11:02:28 06/23/17 Fri

Mr. James is correctly focused on the entire body of work.

Princeton beat Harvard twice, although trailing until last second shots. Harvard could have won both games. Regardless, the season performance and all ratings correctly show that Princeton had a much better season than Harvard did. Nevertheless, the matchups made this rivalry fun to watch.

Yes, Dartmouth beat Penn twice. However, over the course of the season, Penn was rated much higher and won more games. Against common Ivy opponents, Penn was 6-6 while Dartmouth was 2-10.

Was Yale football better than Harvard last year? On one day Yale prevailed (sadly), but over the season Harvard football was better than Yale.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
Diogenes
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Date Posted: 11:37:50 06/23/17 Fri

All of which proves that, mirabile dictu, when going head to head Yale was better than Harvard, Princeton was better than Harvard and Dartmouth was better than Penn.

Too many angels dancing on the heads of too many pins.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: I was going to say that


Author:
holtsledge
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Date Posted: 21:51:53 06/21/17 Wed

Dartmouth B Ball has been lower tier forever but if you beat a team twice in a season you are the better team regardless of stats computer rankings etc

I was there circa 1970? when Harvard's James Brown (yes the NFL guy)played against Dartmouth's JB. Both were good H's was just a bit better

bring back Rudy Larusso and Paul Erland (meanest drunk you had the displeasure of encountering)

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: I would LOVE to see...


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 22:40:27 06/21/17 Wed


A mrjames analysis on football stats!

How much better was Dartmouth last season than Yale, Columbia, Harvard, and Brown???? Sure, we lost to all of them. But hey--the games were close and we had some DYNAMITE out-of-conference stats!!!!!

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