VoyForums

VoyUser Login optional ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 12345678910 ]
Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
mrjames
[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]
Date Posted: 07:53:41 06/22/17 Thu
In reply to: Diogenes 's message, "Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team" on 16:50:44 06/21/17 Wed

If you choose to ignore the litany of empirical evidence that demonstrates that two head-to-head results are far more random than a full season's worth of performance, then there's nothing more to say here.

I'm always a little surprised at how triumphantly Ivy grads thumb their nose at empirical work, though.

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Replies:
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (mrjames)
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 11:52:57 06/22/17 Thu

Dartmouth is the only Ivy to have reached the final game of the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Actually, Dartmouth made two final games, losing the first to Stanford and the second to Utah.

Dartmouth made 7 NCAA tournaments.

Dartmouth is the only Ivy with a winning record in the NCAA Basketball Tournament (10-7).

Those statistics tell us that Dartmouth had excellent teams when they played in the NCAA tournament. What they do not tell us is that Dartmouth Basketball fell off a cliff when Rudy LaRusso graduated in 1959. Dartmouth has never returned to the NCAA Tournament since 1959.

In 2017, Penn was statistically superior to Dartmouth but was 0-2 against Dartmouth in the actual games played.

I'll assume you understand the point I am making.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
mrjames
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 13:04:31 06/22/17 Thu

Your point is that you haven't done the work to empirically determine which statistics demonstrate useful descriptive and predictive ability and those that don't. Not all numbers/ stats are useful, and using the obviously trivial amongst them to argue that none are useful is as absurd as arguing from one useful relationship that all numbers/stats are thusly useful.

I have no issue with the fact that Dartmouth beat Penn twice last season. That is indeed a fact. I have issue with you using it as a basis from which to argue that Dartmouth was as good or better than Penn last season (it wasn't) and thus it has a great shot at being as good or better this season (it doesn't). Your fact from two games is orders of magnitude less predictive than the facts from the other 25 or so games those two teams played last season.

If Penn had met Dartmouth for a third time this past season, the Quakers would have been ~8.5pt favorite on a neutral floor. That's not my opinion, that's what the general model Vegas uses to post lines would say.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Eastern Sports Fan
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 10:15:11 06/23/17 Fri

The only meaningful statistic is a W. The Ivy League basketball team that has the most W's after playing a 14-game schedule is the best. If two teams are tied in W's after 14 games, they play one more time to settle the argument. Or, at least that was the case until this year when the bingo parlor was opened.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
Diogenes (Eastern Sports Fan)
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 14:59:01 06/23/17 Fri

Agree with you. The old format added meaning to each regular season game. New format depreciates the regular season.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Fairness dictates that if you play a team twice and win both games, you're the best team


Author:
observer
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:20:32 06/23/17 Fri

The old format wasn't necessarily the best way to determine "the best team" either. A double round-robin of 14 games isn't exactly the same sample size as an 82-game NBA or 162-game MLB season.

We have all seen instances across all sports when the best team doesn't win a single game. In a relatively short season, that will happen at a higher percentage of the time than over the long haul.

That's why tournament play is appropriate for college basketball. The relatively short schedules and the number of teams demands that the "regular season" not determine a true champion.

In the absence of a statistically valid method of proving out the "best" team, both tournaments and "round-robin" formats can provide a valid champion.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
Go Green
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 12:55:15 06/22/17 Thu


You've claimed (in some form or another) that 2016-17 Dartmouth was one of the worst teams in Ivy history, notwithstanding that we finished tied with two other teams in the standings, and notwithstanding that there is no shortage of teams that recorded fewer than 4 league wins in the history books.

So excuse us for preferring real-world results over your data.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
John Harvard
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 11:02:28 06/23/17 Fri

Mr. James is correctly focused on the entire body of work.

Princeton beat Harvard twice, although trailing until last second shots. Harvard could have won both games. Regardless, the season performance and all ratings correctly show that Princeton had a much better season than Harvard did. Nevertheless, the matchups made this rivalry fun to watch.

Yes, Dartmouth beat Penn twice. However, over the course of the season, Penn was rated much higher and won more games. Against common Ivy opponents, Penn was 6-6 while Dartmouth was 2-10.

Was Yale football better than Harvard last year? On one day Yale prevailed (sadly), but over the season Harvard football was better than Yale.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: It's not just the Penn games


Author:
Diogenes
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 11:37:50 06/23/17 Fri

All of which proves that, mirabile dictu, when going head to head Yale was better than Harvard, Princeton was better than Harvard and Dartmouth was better than Penn.

Too many angels dancing on the heads of too many pins.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]


VoyUser Login ] Not required to post.
Post a public reply to this message | Go post a new public message
* HTML allowed in marked fields.
* Message subject (required):

Name (required):

  Expression (Optional mood/title along with your name) Examples: (happy, sad, The Joyful, etc.) help)

  E-mail address (optional):

* Type your message here:


Notice: Copies of your message may remain on this and other systems on internet. Please be respectful.

[ Contact Forum Admin ]


Forum timezone: GMT-5
VF Version: 3.00b, ConfDB:
Before posting please read our privacy policy.
VoyForums(tm) is a Free Service from Voyager Info-Systems.
Copyright © 1998-2016 Voyager Info-Systems. All Rights Reserved.