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Subject: Re: By the way, regarding your aside

An Observer
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Date Posted: 21:32:52 10/04/18 Thu
In reply to: voy vey 's message, "By the way, regarding your aside" on 21:04:09 10/04/18 Thu

Voy Vey,

Thank you very much for providing that interesting research on the relationship between the point spread and the win probability. I love reading that kind of analysis, just love it.

On the Princeton-Columbia game, I think that your gut reaction to the point spread moving but the O/U total staying static is, all else the same ("ceteris paribus" as I recall from college), the logical and appropriate reaction.

I was not arbitraging between the spread and the total as much as I was expressing a view of the game itself. I didn't know how much credit to give the Princeton offense for posting eye-popping numbers against its first two non-conference opponents.

I knew that Columbia had a very good run defense. I liked Princeton -13 a lot, but I was afraid of a 28-21 kind of score if the Columbia defense showed up as stout as in its non-conference games.

The one thing that I had a firm opinion about was that, if the game got into a high scoring shootout, Columbia could not cover because their starting quarterback would probably not play and their best offensive player Wainright definitely would not play.

So I put together the two-legged trade to try to isolate my belief that Columbia could not cover if the game was high-scoring.

As you may recall if you watched the telecast, the game started out with the Columbia returner taking the opening kick-off down the sideline to the Princeton seven-yard-line. I had suggested my two-legged bet to two friends to co-invest. As Columbia returner streaked past the coverage and the Princeton kicker made a lame, half-hearted attempt to shove him out of bounds, I thought to myself, "My friends think I'm an idiot."

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