VoyForums
[ Show ]
Support VoyForums
[ Shrink ]
VoyForums Announcement: Programming and providing support for this service has been a labor of love since 1997. We are one of the few services online who values our users' privacy, and have never sold your information. We have even fought hard to defend your privacy in legal cases; however, we've done it with almost no financial support -- paying out of pocket to continue providing the service. Due to the issues imposed on us by advertisers, we also stopped hosting most ads on the forums many years ago. We hope you appreciate our efforts.

Show your support by donating any amount. (Note: We are still technically a for-profit company, so your contribution is not tax-deductible.) PayPal Acct: Feedback:

Donate to VoyForums (PayPal):

Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 12345678910 ]
Subject: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
voy vey
[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]
Date Posted: 18:42:39 11/07/21 Sun

If I've done the math right, here's the chances for each team still mathematically alive. This is based on Massey Ratings, which give a percentage likelihood of each game outcome. For examples, 92% chance Dartmouth beats Cornell; 60% chance Princeton beats Yale.

DARTMOUTH
Chances of winning title outright: 28.64%
Chances of winning at least a share of the title: 82.78%

PRINCETON
Chances of winning title outright: 12.12%
Chances of winning at least a share of the title: 52.85%

YALE
Chances of winning title outright: 4.69%
Chances of winning at least a share of the title: 25.00%

HARVARD
Chances of winning title outright: 0.0% (Mr. Blutarski)
Chances of winning at least a share of the title: 3.99%


Odds for each possible outcome:

Dartmouth/Princeton share - 34.24%
Dartmouth solo - 28.64%
Dartmouth/Yale share - 13.82%
Princeton solo - 12.12%
Yale solo - 4.69%
First-ever four-way tie at 5-2 (D,Pr,Y,H) - 3.99%
Three-way tie, Dartmouth/Princeton/Yale - 2.09%
Princeton/Yale share - 0.40%

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Replies:
[> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Ivy Inquisitor
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:02:52 11/07/21 Sun

This is a well organized analysis. I can't wait to revisit this post after the next two Saturdays. I may refer to this post when making picks for the IFC.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Joe Friday
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:19:38 11/07/21 Sun

What was the Massey Rating/percentage likelihood of winning for the Columbia at Dartmouth game this season?

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
voy vey
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:36:17 11/07/21 Sun

After the games are played, Massey replaces the % chance of winning with the actual final score. So, I don't know what the chances were for Columbia @ Dartmouth. I'm sure they were low, but > 0.

For the record, here's Massey's percentages for each remaining Ivy game:

@ Princeton 60% Yale 40%
@ Dartmouth 92% Cornell 8%
@ Harvard 92% Penn 8%
@ Columbia 68% Brown 32%

Harvard 58% @ Yale 42%
Dartmouth 79% @ Brown 21%
Princeton 73% @ Penn 27%
Columbia 52% @ Cornell 48%

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Joe Friday
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 20:46:30 11/07/21 Sun

Thanks again for the effort here.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Two Cents
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:26:59 11/07/21 Sun

Thanks for providing this analysis. Good stuff!

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Joe Friday
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:39:53 11/07/21 Sun

Agree - thank you for the analysis- trashing predictive analysis is a sport itself within the sports world’s chattering class, but the truth is that it’s a very useful tool, which even some old-school critics would grudgingly admit to in a private moment. That said, there are deviations, and therefore my question about Columbia/Dartmouth game this season if that info is available - thanks again.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Son of Eli
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:31:55 11/07/21 Sun

Excellent work Voy Vey. Thank you.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> Subject: Excellent point


Author:
joiseyfan
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 19:50:37 11/07/21 Sun

We do indeed need always to recall our guiding light, Sen John Blutarski and his minions

https://youtu.be/u1hnwvWhbJw

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go// other important stats


Author:
M3
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 21:20:59 11/07/21 Sun

If Princeton beats Yale there is 100% chance I will have a Jack Daniels over ice before dinner.

Come to think of it if they lose there is 100% chance of a JD over ice before dinner.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go// other important stats


Author:
ivy guy
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 21:41:40 11/07/21 Sun

I have had a firm Canadian whiskey after most Brown games this season ... for a different reason.

Go Bruno !

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Eli1143770312
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 21:59:36 11/07/21 Sun

I notice that this Yale team doesn’t get much respect on this site. Keep in mind that the Elis’ sole Ivy loss was to Dartmouth on the road in overtime, after a questionable spearing penalty allowed Dartmouth to extend a drive that allowed it to tie the score at the end of regulation. And Yale has gone with a more mobile sophomore quarterback since then, going 3-0 behind Nolan Grooms. The Tigers and Johns will be tough opponents but I like Yale’s chances against each. Dartmouth definitely has the best path to at least a share of the title but I suspect EJ Perry will give them a lot to handle (he’s quite an athlete).

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> Subject: It was targeting, not spearing


Author:
Go Green
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 05:54:48 11/08/21 Mon


Although admittedly if I understand the rules correctly, "targeting" is essentially spearing that results in helmet to helmet contact.

And I don't have much of a point, but it seems that there have been quite a few players ejected for targeting this season. Dartmouth, Yale, Columbia, Cornell and Princeton are the ones I know about.

Dartmouth and Cornell pretty much accepted the call as correct. The others did not. All were upheld via review and the player was suspended for the first half of the following game (a fate virtually guaranteed for the Princeton player this coming Saturday).

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> Subject: Re: It was targeting, not spearing


Author:
Memphis Bill
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 08:15:30 11/08/21 Mon

Agree that Bulldogs don’t get much respect on this board, despite winning or sharing Ivy titles in two of last three seasons, and almost always playing stoutest non League schedule. Groome’s skill set is reminiscent of Rawlings, QB who delivered two of those titles. Come to think of it, had Rawlings not been hurt in 2018, and replaced by a freshman, Yale might well be headed for its fourth Ivy crown in a row.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: It was targeting, not spearing


Author:
Two Cents
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 08:36:04 11/08/21 Mon

I agree that Yale has not gotten a lot of respect this year. I thought they outplayed Dartmouth, although the “questionable” targeting call seems pretty clear cut when watching game on tv replays.

I don’t believe the 2018 Yale team was on the same level as Princeton and Dartmouth. Both those teams were arguably the top two Ivy teams of that decade, and Dartmouth beat Yale 41-18 with a healthy Rawlings that season. Not disrespecting Yale in any way, but I think most would agree that Princeton would have handily beaten Yale with a healthy Rawlings in 2018.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Eli1143770312
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 09:26:38 11/08/21 Mon

@Go Green: thanks for correcting the call: targeting rather than spearing. I understand and support the reason for the rule but it’s frequently hard to take the in-game results. Does targeting require any belief in intent (as the name implies)? Where I’ve seen it called, the helmet to helmet collision is the result of both players taking actions, not just the person on whom the penalty is called.
But back to my original point: looking forward to the Elis playing Princeton and Harvard! They should be great contests.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> [> Subject: Nope


Author:
Go Green
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 17:16:20 11/08/21 Mon


I'm pretty sure that Reno and Bagnoli were trying to argue that the contact was inadvertent and that there was no intent to injure.

But the rules don't have a "he didn't really mean it" exception.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
Tiger69
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 11:02:16 11/08/21 Mon

I am very pessimistic about Princeton against yale. What worries me is our inconsistency on offense of late and our dismal record inside the Red Zone. Whatever happened to Brevin White, our 4* QB in waiting? Is he still on the squad? I hope that through some miracle we are able to pull a rabbit out of the hat this Saturday. But, the signs are not good.☹️

Go Tigers!🐅

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
[> [> Subject: Re: Title chances w/ 2 weeks to go


Author:
M3
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 11:19:24 11/08/21 Mon

Against Harvard and Dartmouth 1 offensive touchdown was scored.

Yale D is good.

Outlook grim.

Coaching staff must put a BIG wrinkle into QB play on Saturday for Tigers to have a chance.

Put in the big freshman QB or the Colorado transfer and run the Cozza I bone.

[ Post a Reply to This Message ]


Login ] Create Account Not required to post.
Post a public reply to this message | Go post a new public message
* HTML allowed in marked fields.
* Message subject (required):

Name (required):

  Expression (Optional mood/title along with your name) Examples: (happy, sad, The Joyful, etc.) help)

  E-mail address (optional):

* Type your message here:


Notice: Copies of your message may remain on this and other systems on internet. Please be respectful.

[ Contact Forum Admin ]


Forum timezone: GMT-5
VF Version: 3.00b, ConfDB:
Before posting please read our privacy policy.
VoyForums(tm) is a Free Service from Voyager Info-Systems.
Copyright © 1998-2019 Voyager Info-Systems. All Rights Reserved.