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Subject: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
voy vey
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Date Posted: 14:19:45 11/14/21 Sun

Utilizing the % probabilities of victory in week 10 - averaged from Massey and Sagarin.

Starting at the bottom of the list...

HARVARD - eliminated from any title chances. Insert Mr. Blutarski GPA here.

YALE - eliminated from SOLO title chances. Has a 1% chance of sharing the title in a 3-way tie (must beat the team from up north, and get help from Bruno AND the Quakers). Insert Jim Carey line from Dumb and Dumber here.

Now, onto the realistic chances:

71.7% chance that D and P share the title.
15.9% chance that D wins outright.
11.4% chance that P wins outright.

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Replies:
[> Subject: Re: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
bulldog10jw
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Date Posted: 14:28:15 11/14/21 Sun

Shouldn't Harvard have the same 1% chance as Yale?

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[> [> Subject: Yep


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 15:06:08 11/14/21 Sun


If Dartmouth and Princeton both get upset, then the winner of the H-Y game claims part of the title.

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[> Subject: Re: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
voy vey
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Date Posted: 15:55:12 11/14/21 Sun

Well, s%$#, you are correct! Thanks for pointing that out.
As I said last week, "_IF_ I've done the math right"...

I had mistakenly designated D and P wins in week 9 with Brown/Penn/Harvard wins in week 10 as a D/P split title, not a three-way with H.

Updated:

Dartmouth/Princeton share: 70.1%
Dartmouth solo: 15.9%
Princeton solo: 11.4%
Dartmouth/Princeton/Harvard share: 1.6%
Dartmouth/Princeton/Yale share: 1.0%

Chances for each team to at least get a share of the title:
D - 88.6%
P - 84.1%
H - 1.6%
Y - 1.0%


Underlying data (game chances, Massey/Sagarin avg) --

Dartmouth over Brown, 86% likely
Princeton over Penn, 81.5% likely
Harvard over Yale, 63% likely

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[> [> Subject: Re: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
joiseyfan
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Date Posted: 19:42:34 11/14/21 Sun

The only thing that seems odd to me out of all the probabilities is giving EJ Perry a 14% shot at home in his final game. Feels low, absolutely no disrespect to Big Green.

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[> [> [> Subject: Re: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
Bengal
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Date Posted: 23:12:10 11/14/21 Sun

You’ve seen the Brown defense. No snark at Brown intended, but I think Penn has a better chance of beating P than Brown has of beating DC. I think DC has to be off it’s game for Brown to pull the upset. Cheers.

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[> [> [> Subject: Re: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
joiseyfan
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Date Posted: 10:58:40 11/15/21 Mon

Completely legit argument, although technically I’m not certain ANYBODY has seen the Brown defense.

The Dartmouth offense and Princeton defense are really good bets on Saturday, let’s agree.

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[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
Bengal
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Date Posted: 11:34:57 11/15/21 Mon

I am hoping we put together a complete game on both sides of the ball...and special teams. There have been games when either the defense or the offense was off...and one game when they both were off.

With Yale, the kicking game completely broke down.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Title chances - updated w/ 1 week remaining


Author:
Two Cents
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Date Posted: 12:58:36 11/15/21 Mon

Kicking and punting has been abysmal in the league this season.

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