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Subject: FCS level of play will actually increase - quickly


Author:
Joe Friday
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Date Posted: 12:37:18 01/15/22 Sat
In reply to: Ghost of 1961 's message, "Re: The new age of college athletics- I agree" on 22:05:08 01/10/22 Mon

The NIL effect is actually secondary, because the number of guys who are in that end of the pool is very, very small - generally, P5 and maybe a few G5 guys who actually play on a regular basis or who are projected to get on the field sooner rather than later….and maybe a few guys within the usual FCS powers in isolated markets who regularly play in December, but that’s really it.

What’s happening right now as we type here: the portal is like the low ground after a big storm: saturated, and it’s not draining. Two and three star prospects who weren’t realistic about where they really fit with on the field skill level are awakening to the fact that they will likely never get onto the field unless someone else gets hurt….and you can’t put it on film if you’re not the field. So, most of those P5 guys who have been sitting are hoping to land in G5. G5 guys in the same posture are looking to go to high level FCS and so on. Yes they’re all getting pushed down, but they’re bringing their higher-than-what-you-usually-see skills with them to all levels of the FCS. Sooner rather than later you’re going to see legit FBS guys grateful for the opportunity to actually play in the Pioneer League of the FCS…don’t get me wrong: they’re definitely better than that level, but the roster management challenges and sheer competition just squeeze them down. The level of play will go up accordingly, which will benefit the FCS, generally. I have to think that from a talent standpoint it will help the IL programs, because there will be more AI qualified guys who won’t throw the dice with an FBS program and instead will take the (likely) smoother path to the field with an IL program. It’s actually already happening in the IL.

The big losers in this are the solid HS prospects who just can’t get onto any D1 roster (FBS or FCS) unless they’re willing to take a PWO and prove it…you do have to prove it every year, but you know what I mean…and then financial considerations may preclude them from taking even that limited opportunity…at which point the JCs will see a pop in interest as more guys use it out if necessity as a spring board….but even they assumedly have roster limitations.

Programs from FCS and up will be adding GM-type staff in the next year or two solely to help with roster management and the ever increasing fluidity of the (effectively) free agent market.

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Author:
Ghost of 1961
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Date Posted: 18:30:35 01/15/22 Sat

You could be right, but the top of the FCS will figure out how to lure next level talent with NIL deals. We'll see if there's a further separation from the top to the bottom of the FCS.

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