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Date Posted: Saturday, February 23, 09:47:51am
Author: JGareis
Subject: Open space financial analysis
In reply to: Dave Zitzkat 's message, "More Statistics" on Wednesday, February 20, 12:52:38pm

If you go to this link and scroll down to the section subtitle "Project Benefits", you'll see a link to "analysis conducted by OSPC". That opens up an Adobe document with an 8 page analysis. I will email you a copy of that document in case you can't get there. There's no mention of a 2.7 kid per home assumption in this or in the 2 simpler analyses I pointed you to a while back (Open Space website).

http://www.newhartfordlandtrust.org/Jones/JonesMtnNews.html

It looks like the assumption here is that 75% of new homes will have school age children within the time horizon of the analysis and that there will be 1.34 kids per home having any, which translates to 1.0 kids per house in rounded numbers.

Regarding the statistical analysis you did earlier, I questioned whether your 2.7 kids per house was an accurate representation of the OSPC claims vs. a caricature of their arguement. Looks like the latter by a count of 3 to 0.

Regarding the validity of the methods you used, I made no criticism of the methods themselves but pointed out the the data they were being applied to had too much going on to test a serious hypothesis on how enrollment might be correlated with new housing counts. When you use these techniques, there is an implicit experimental design behind the analysis that supports inferences as to whether the means, counts or distribution differences being tested using actually measure what they are supposed to.

2.7 public students per home is clearly an unreasonable assumption. Based on that, we would expect to have 7,000 students enrolled in public schools given the number of homes in town (actual number of students is just under 1,200). The appropiate statistical test that applies in such cases is commonly referred to as the no-shit-Sherlock model. But . . . 2.7 is not The OSPC's claim.

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