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Date Posted: 14:30:05 07/02/10 Fri
Author: Don Johnson
Subject: 40% more fish ?

It appears that the Alaska Department of Fish and Game is planning on re-calculating the sockeye escapement
goal range for the Kenai River tonight, July 2, at the Aquaculture Building, 6:30 p.m..

It seems that the department believes that its new Dittson sonar is counting 40% more fish than its
old Bendix sonar, so the department wants to change the Kenai Rivers sockeye escapement goal range.
It looks like they want to change the escapement goal range to anticipate what the Alaska Board of Fish
"would have done" with this 40% information, if they would have been given it when they established our
current 650,000 - 850,000 Bendix sonar sockeye goal range.
That may sound like a rather strange way to address this kind of issue but that it what is about to happen.
Usually this kind of an issue is written up into a Board of Fish, Out-Of-Cycle Request and handled by
the Board of Fish as soon as possible. The ADF&G has decided to not go this route, for some reason,
and is instead attempting to remedy the situation with an instant, in season, re-calculation of the data
to compensate for the 40% increase in sonar targets.

Our current sockeye escapement goal range is between 650,000 - 850,000 sockeye on the Kenai River
and 150,000 fish of that escapement is the sport fish allocation. The ADF&G appears to be planning on
subtracting the sport fish allocation from the range and NOT re-calculating it.
650,000 min. - 150,000 sport allocation = 500,000 min. sockeye escapement
850,000 max. - 150,000 sport allocation = 700,000 max. sockeye escapement
The remaining 500,000 - 700,000 sockeye range would then be re-calculated for the Bendix / Dittson 40% factor.
If the ADF&G then intends to subtract the 40% off the current sockeye goal range, then the following
may be the new calculation they intend to preform.

200,000 sockeyes is 40% of the 500,000 min.
280,000 sockeyes is 40% of the 700,000 max..

500,000 min. - 200,000 = 300,000 sockeyes
700,000 max. - 280,000 = 420,000 sockeyes

The new sockeye escapement goal range would then be reduced to 300,000 - 420,000 sockeyes with the
150,000 sport allocation added on top of that, leaving a goal range of between 450,000 - 570,000 sockeyes.
The old escapement goal would have been between 650,000 - 850,000 sockeye and the new escapement
goal would be between 450,000 - 570,000 sockeyes. This would be a difference of 200,000 - 280,000 sockeyes.
The average would then be about 240,000 sockeye and that is the number of fish we appear to be dealing with.
It appears that the ADF&G believes that the Board of Fish would have reduced our current sockeye escapement
goal range if they had been given Kenai River sockeye escapement data with 40% more escaping fish.
It naturally follows that if you reduce this escapement range, that the department will then reach its Kenai River
escapement sooner and therefore allow additional days for commercial fisheries to fish.
All public fisheries understand what happens when this kind of a situation develops. It normally holds nothing
good for public fisheries because the fish which normally show up, never do show up.
Anyway it may be a good thing to do for folks to show up at this ADF&G meeting and see how they intend to
handle this 40% sonar factor.

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