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>>China IS the second largest economy in the world at >>this moment! Almost 2 times that of Japan! Just two or >>three years ago, it was still the fourth or third >>largest. Now, it IS the second! It will definitely >>pass up the USA very soon, probably in ten to twenty >>years. But in terms of GDP / capita, it is another >>story. > >Herodotus statement about China being the number three >economy was, I am guessing, based off GDP at exchange >rates, in which case China is the number 3 country. >Your using GDP based of purchasing power parity(PPP). >While PPP is a very use full tool for comparing >countries in a lot of ways, particular levels of >personal income, it does have some problems and PPP >does not always hold very well. For example it holds >better comparing countries of the same development >levels. Most of the estimate made by economist that I >seen have China passing up the United States in a >range of 30-40 years. Which is probably a fairly >realistic range, particular since it unlikely that >China GDP will continue to grow at 6-8 in real terms, >over the long run now country's economy grows that >fast in real terms. > > > > >> >>I am not particularly surprised by the size of their >>economy, given that China has the largest population >>and the Chinese are so good at doing business. This is >>nothing new. > > >Well it is a relatively new thing, China's economy has >only really started to grow since they liberalized and >introduced a market economy to large portions of their >economy. During the period when the economy was >central planned, ie closer to true communism, they had >poor economic growth. The private companies are the >one that driving China economic growth. The state >industries are largely a burden and in some ways cause >problems that could harm the large economy latter on. >They have had a large number of loans floated to them >that they are unlikely to pay back. > > >> >>What really surprises me is that China has also become >>a world leader in so many areas of scientific >>research, especially areas related to mathematics and >>other pure sciences. The Americans still do much >>better in the medical and applied areas, though. >> >China has certainly moved forward, but they are very >few areas that they lead the world. Most of China >growth has been catch up growth. It relatively rare >that you see many new high tech products come out >there. Most of that still comes out of the US or Japan.
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