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>Yes, you are right. Anyway, I think it is not easy to >compare countries and I guess different countries will >calculate their size of economy in different ways. >What is important is that the size of economy of China >is comparable to Japan. > >>Herodotus statement about China being the number three >>economy was, I am guessing, based off GDP at exchange >>rates, in which case China is the number 3 country. >>Your using GDP based of purchasing power parity(PPP). >>While PPP is a very use full tool for comparing >>countries in a lot of ways, particular levels of >>personal income, it does have some problems and PPP >>does not always hold very well. For example it holds >>better comparing countries of the same development >>levels. > >Without the recent economic crisis, I guess this will >be true. But now I believe China will pass up the USA >in my lifetime. > >Most of the estimate made by economist that I >>seen have China passing up the United States in a >>range of 30-40 years. Which is probably a fairly >>realistic range, particular since it unlikely that >>China GDP will continue to grow at 6-8 in real terms, >>over the long run now country's economy grows that >>fast in real terms. > > >I have once read a book by a French historian who >studied ancient economics. According to the book, the >economy of the Ancient Han Dynasty of China was even >greater than that of the Roman Empire. > >>Well it is a relatively new thing, China's economy has >>only really started to grow since they liberalized and >>introduced a market economy to large portions of their >>economy. During the period when the economy was >>central planned, ie closer to true communism, they had >>poor economic growth. The private companies are the >>one that driving China economic growth. The state >>industries are largely a burden and in some ways cause >>problems that could harm the large economy latter on. >>They have had a large number of loans floated to them >>that they are unlikely to pay back. >> > > >China is clearly leading the world in many pure >sciences such as mathematics and theoretical physics, >something which have little applications and which you >may not be well aware of unless you read journals of >these fields regularly. The Indians do better in >information science and technology, something which >affects us directly. The Japanese are still leading >the world in advanced electronics and hi-tech products >but the Koreans are challenging them now by selling >similar but cheaper products. Germany was once a >leader in the physical sciences, but that was before >the 2nd WW. After that many of their great scientists >fled to the USA and now the Germans seem to do better >in the social sciences/arts, as are the French and >Italians. > >The Americans are still the supreme master in most >areas of the applied sciences such as medical and >space technologies. But even in the latter, the >Chinese are fast catching up with the States. > >>China has certainly moved forward, but they are very >>few areas that they lead the world. Most of China >>growth has been catch up growth. It relatively rare >>that you see many new high tech products come out >>there. Most of that still comes out of the US or >Japan.
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