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Date Posted: 21:14:06 04/19/10 Mon
Author: Donald F. Valtman
Subject: Home Prices and GCPSS Enrollments

Lots of similarities between Gwinnett County home prices and GCPSS student enrollments.

Just as real-life experience has proven, Gwinnett home prices COULDN'T keep increasing year-after-year forever; and GCPSS K-12 student enrollments CAN'T keep increasing school year-after-school year forever! The rate of increase already has slowed significantly and is heading toward ZERO growth ala other old-line Metro Atlanta public school systems.

Want indisputable proof? Check out GCPSS's OWN student counts submitted 2 times each school year to GADoE:

> In its heyday, GCPSS's K-12 enrollment increases averaged +7,512 students in the 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 school years. Since then, GCPSS's K-12 enrollment increases averaged +2,293 students for the 2007-08, 2008-09 abd 2009-10 school years. Restated, the average K-12 student increase for the most recent 3 school years is LESS than 1/3rd of what it was during the 3 heyday school years!

> In spite of an ACTUAL March 2010 count of 157,168 K-12 students, GCPSS STILL is 'estimating' (and the lapdog AJ/C and Gwinnett Post is parroting) an enrollment of 161,000 students come Fall, 2010. In other words, GCPSS and the local print media apparently want you to believe that K-12 enrollment will INCREASE almost 4,000 students over the Summer months! Come to think of it, +4,000 students in about 4 months is peanuts when you realize that at one time GCPSS's 2010-11 enrollment was 'estimated' at 166,585 to 176,122 students!!!

> But the financial implications will be that such SWAG 'estimates' (like 187,338 students in the 2014-15 school year) probably will be the basis for another E-SPLOST. But the coup de grace will be if a majority of Gwinnett voters actually buy into such improbable SWAGS and vote for another E-SPLOST.

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