Not necessarily -- mikeknight dot com discussion

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Subject: Not necessarily

Author:
Paul

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Date Posted: 01:13:08 02/01/02 Fri
In reply to: sibo 's message, "well still" on 19:13:41 01/22/02 Tue

You see, India in striking first would destroy the Pakistani arsenal. Pakistan is very small and densely populated -- take out Islamabad and Karachi and that's the ballgame. On the other hand, Pakistan's relatively weak air force would have to penetrate the Indian air defenses -- and I'm not sure they could do that. And if Pakistan tried to use nuclear weapons, they would be destroyed in turn by India.

I haven't tried to model this because I don't ahve enough information. But I'm not quite sure that we can dismiss an Indian first strike. Remember that India started the latest imbroglio when they tested first, seemingly without provocation.

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