Holy Quran
Sura III, 67
Abraham was not a Jew
Nor yet a Christian;
But he was true in Faith,
And bowed his will to God's.
(Which is Islam)
And he joined not gods with God.
[Edit]
SLATT -- ET, 05:54:13 11/27/03 Thu
Hey SLATT – sorry about the tardy response. Thanks for the comprehensive point of view. You wrote in part:
“What is generally accepted as good farmland today I believe tomorrow will be seen as poor. Large tracts of the farmland that have all three positive soil attributes are very rare in areas not requiring irrigation. But the land still exists. And at tremendously undervalued prices.”
Well, that is kind of what I was thinking. I’ve several friends looking for alternative investments in tangibles. I think we may put together an investment corp specifically for farmland purchases. I can tell right now I’ll have to find an expert out this way.
”I do see farming becoming a profitable endeavor in the future. I do not believe organic farming will demand the prices currently received. Rather I see the consumers demanding the nutritional baseline to be raised. While that should equate to greater opportunity for small organic farms, it will also hurt overall domestic produce sales. The family garden plot will come back with a vengeance. Most people can grow high value produce at home given the nutritional/monetary incentive. The organic operations will have to be plugged into a large urban market in order to prosper. Grain production will have to remain in the realm of Big Ag while domestic consumption for food decreases. Yet Big ag grain production for fuel or other industrial uses further degrades the land, increasing the value of high quality land.”
Good points. I don’t know if you have a “Whole Foods Market”, or something similar in your neck of the woods. These guys are getting premium, and I mean premium prices for so-called organic products. I’ve seen their stores in the urban areas, as you mention, and they seem to be doing well. I used to converse with a cotton farmer in California. He grows a specialty cotton that trades at about twice the price of regular cotton. He does very well, but depends on the irrigation in the valley, like so many of the Cal farmers do. I think water may end up being the bigger issue for some of these guys.
I don’t think this grain production for fuel has the legs. Without the subsidy, they would be dead in the water. If you’ve ever been to Iowa, you know what I mean. Ethanol laced fuel is cheaper at the pump by a couple of cents, but they have to put a big sign on the pump pointing to the fact. At this time, I don’t see it as feasible.
I think you’re right about the family garden. Inflation in grocery prices will create a new generation of family gardeners. We still grow some of our own, but only for the quality. On a cost per hour basis, it still isn’t close, but then again, I can afford good produce. Down the road, that may change.
Thanks for your input. You’ve confirmed what I’ve been thinking for a while. I’d like to buy some land and other commodity-based stuff for the longer term. Maybe in 15-20 years I’ll see a good payoff.
[Edit]
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!! -- SLATT, 05:41:47 11/27/03 Thu
Unless you're a turkey.
[Edit]
Mexico Introduces 100-Peso Silver Coin - Circulating and Proof Coins Being Minted -- Netking, 23:52:40 11/26/03 Wed
Fair use snippet from The Silver Institute:
Mexico's national mint, Casa de Moneda, has begun the introduction of a new 100-peso silver circulating coin. Additionally, the mint is issuing two proof versions of the coin.
The coin, which is already in circulation, celebrates the Union of the States of the Mexican Republic into one Federation. A total of 32 different coins will be issued - one each month through 2005, for each Mexican state, in reverse alphabetical order, with Zacatecas being first and finishing with Aguascalientes. This coin is bimetallic with the center of the coin being of 0.925 silver, and the outside ring of the coin an alloy of bronze and aluminum. Each coin contains 16.812 grams of silver. The Banco de Mexico will determine mintage levels, and it is believed that they will authorize 250,000 coins for each of the 32 states. This coin program could potentially consume over four million ounces of silver when completed in 2005.
A silver one-troy-ounce proof coin, with a 10-peso face value, will also be issued with a mintage of 10,000 coins. A bimetallic proof coin, with a face value of 100 pesos, made of gold and silver, will also be issued with a mintage of 1,000 coins.
Paul Bateman, Executive Director of the Silver Institute, said, "The Silver Institute has been meeting with the various mint masters of several countries in an effort to encourage the development of silver coinage programs. We are very pleased with the exciting new silver circulating coinage program underway in Mexico, and are hopeful that the trend continues elsewhere throughout the world."
In 2002, world fabrication demand for coins and medals grew by almost three percent to 31.1 million ounces.
The Silver Institute is a nonprofit international industry association headquartered in Washington, D.C. Established in 1971, the Institute serves as the industry's voice in increasing public understanding of the value and many uses of silver.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr21nov03.html
For Further Information Contact:
Mike DiRienzo
The Silver Institute
1200 G Street, N.W., Suite 800
Washington, D.C. 20005
Tel: (202) 835-0185
Fax: (202) 835-0155
[Edit]
Galearis -- Netking, 23:15:35 11/26/03 Wed
Re: 06:29:54 Something is happening in Ag...
Me: What do you see G? As suggested some months back, I still see containment until early New Year...2004 a good year for Ag in store :-)
[Edit]
"Were it not that God's Word reveals so clearly -- HBM, 22:55:51 11/26/03 Wed
the power of that darkness which rests on the understanding of all who are not taught by the Spirit, it would be surprising beyond words to see so many intelligent people supposing that holiness consists in abstinence from human comforts, garbing themselves in mean attire, and practicing various austerities which God never commanded." A. W. Pink
[Edit]
"The closer we are permitted to walk -- HBM, 22:44:50 11/26/03 Wed
with God and the more we see ourselves in His light, the more conscious are we of the deformity of sin and of our baseness.” A. W. Pink
[Edit]
“What was it -- HBM, 22:39:00 11/26/03 Wed
that Adam had and lost? What was it which distinguished him from all the lower creatures?
"Not simply the possession of a soul, but that his soul had stamped upon it the moral image and likeness of his Maker. This it was which constituted his blessedness, which capacitated him for communion with the Lord, and which qualified him to live a happy life to His glory. And this it was which he lost at the fall. And this it is which the last Adam restores unto His people”, A. W. Pink.
[Edit]
"No greater delusion -- HBM, 22:27:34 11/26/03 Wed
"can seize the minds of men than that defiled nature is able to cleanse itself, that fallen and ruined man may rectify himself, or that those who have lost the image of God which He created in them, should create it again in themselves by their own endeavors." – A. W. Pink
Methinks that:
There are only two styles of religious belief in the world. There are those who look to God to restore them, to redeem them from their fallen estate. Then there are those who look to themselves for restoration and redemption. The second class have had their minds siezed by that "great delusion"
HBM
[Edit]
The true weapon of mass destruction -- HBM, 22:09:30 11/26/03 Wed
Be’uns it’s a little slow I thought I might get away with a little lip from the hip.
Here goes:
From the beginning I have been convinced that the modus operandi, the so-called protecting of our national interest concerning Iraq under George Bush Sr. was, really a move to secure the free flow of oil. Saddam Hussein Attacked Kuwait and attempted to take control of the oil giving Papa Bush an excuse to action in the interest of the oil needs of the moneyed powers.
I wondered why he let Saddam get away at the time. It now seems clear that TPTB looked at Saddam as a stabilizing force in the region and no longer a threat when they decided to let him off the hook. It makes sense that the goal, all along, was stability and not so much the thwarting a Hitler-like aggression. What was sought was a balance of “lack of power” in the region.
Well, a decade passes and things don’t go so well. Islam gives us a sucker punch on 911 day and laughs in our collective faces with good reason. For we are impotent now and cannot stop the inevitable holy war between Islam and the infidels (those who do not believe as they do) and they know it. Their weapon of mass destruction is oil and they know it.
When Jimmy Carter was in office we had the opportunity to take control of our destiny by engineering a long range strategy of self-sufficiency and we blew it. When I say we, I mean we little people who allowed them to lure us into complacency by taking the easy way out. We could have sucked it up back then, yet we chose the pleasures of the world for a season. Now we reap the whirlwind.
Why have we not taken it upon ourselves to get energy self-sufficient? Why have we not closed our borders to thugs and let them go at each other. The answer is simple. We are not they. By they, I mean those in control of our land, our economy and our politics. Let us hang our heads in shame, for we allowed this to happen. They did not take the power from us. We reliquished it to them and our children and our grandchildren will bare the brunt of our cowardice. Now we are not they and will never be they until they leave us with nothing but our bootstraps.
Now George, Jr. dubs those who threaten the free flow of oil, the axis of evil. He brilliantly turns the rhetoric away from oil and to fatherland security and feigns to fear his so-called weapons of mass destruction. All the while the modus operandi has never changed. The weapon of mass destruction, you see, is still oil.
The oil must remain in the control of TPTB. Nothing else counts. All hope swings on the hinges of Mideast oil supplies. Iraq is nothing to the festering power kegs of Iran and Saudi Arabia. They hate our guts and we pretend that we can pull a Rodney King, and just whimper, “Cant we just all try to get along?”
Now we have a situation that looks very much like a “Viet Nam” on our hands. I say, “Looks like”. Do not believe it for a moment. This is no “Viet Nam.” Why! Well, again we say, the very purpose of U.S. presence in the Mideast is, has been and will continue to be oil, only oil. Nothing but oil!!!
In Viet Nam we could pull out and make the mamas in the U. S. feel better. Yes, we did have to pull the rug out from under some companies who were doing a good war business but it did not risk the total ruination of the national economy.
Why is this no Viet Nam? Because George, Jr. has a tiger by the tail and this tiger, neither he nor any future successor can opt to let go, for at the end of all this lies the absolute ruin of the U. S. economy.
As in Viet Nam, the mamas are going to scream bloody murder but this time, to no avail. No continued U. S. presence, no oil flow. It’s just that simple. We are not energy self-sufficient and never will be. The opportunity has passed us by. This will lead to the unthinkable option, the nuclear option. That is the only thing that will satisfy the mamas in the U. S.
Here we are trying to recover from Bill Clinton and George is handing the baton over to Hillary. God help us. The only thing I can think of which could be worse than George right now is Hillary. I greatly fear that that will be the choice for those fools who think they can get us out of this mess at the polls.
This little dervish is out of here before your guys and gals start digging for my email address for non-benevolent reasons.
HBM
[Edit]
HiHat @ 17:42:16 11/26/03 Wed -- HBM, 20:38:20 11/26/03 Wed
And a hearty hail to you my friend.
I am reminded of a redneck (or was it a “cool papa bell”) quip? Can’t remember.
It went something like this" “Brutus say, Hail Caesar. Caesar say, why hail yes!"
Where have you been? You have been sorely missed
I just now asked Rex to send you my email address.
Yes darkness is again upon the face of the deep. Keep that machete handy.
Highest respect to you, my brother.
HBM
[Edit]
california merging with mexico -- qwerty, 19:28:47 11/26/03 Wed
i thought this may add a chuckle
===
"The governor would be open to reviewing legislation as long as it addresses security issues," Sollitto said, declining to be more specific.
Schwarzenegger pledged during the gubernatorial recall campaign that he would move to repeal SB 60, which was signed by former Gov. Gray Davis -- in an effort, critics contend, to attract Latino voters.
The new governor called the Legislature into special session to overturn the law within hours of his taking office last week.
Cedillo speculated Schwarzenegger would be willing to support a measure similar to one Davis vetoed in 2002. That bill would have allowed illegal immigrants in the process of obtaining legal status in the United States to qualify for a license once they had completed a criminal background check and submitted proof of employment.
===
if arnold does approve such a bill, it will essentially mean the border between mexico and california becomes just a formality that is essentially irrelevant
the california democrats and republicans take turns reaming the voters and selling out the country just like they do in washington, dc ... btw independents don't act much different either
[Edit]
Hail and Greetings................HBM -- HiHat, 17:42:16 11/26/03 Wed
HBM..........I attempted to e-mail you from
address obtained through REX,..way back when
..........message returned undelivered............
Wickedness....now so thick, you could cut it with
a knife......and we may have to...............
Hi and brotherly Regards.....to ALL
[Edit]
Sorrows of Empire............ -- HiHat, 17:28:03 11/26/03 Wed
"Although tyranny, because it needs no consent, may successfully rule over foreign peoples, it can stay in power only if it destroys first of all the national institutions of its own people."
Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism
"Four sorrows, it seems to me, are certain to be visited on the United States. Their cumulative effect guarantees that the U.S. will cease to resemble the country outlined in the Constitution of 1787. First, there will be a state of perpetual war, leading to more terrorism against Americans wherever they may be and a spreading reliance on nuclear weapons among smaller nations as they try to ward off the imperial juggernaut. Second is a loss of democracy and Constitutional rights as the presidency eclipses Congress and is itself transformed from a co-equal "executive branch" of government into a military junta. Third is the replacement of truth by propaganda, disinformation, and the glorification of war, power, and the military legions. Lastly, there is bankruptcy, as the United States pours its economic resources into ever more grandiose military projects and shortchanges the education, health, and safety of its citizens. All I have space for here is to touch briefly on three of these: endless war, the loss of Constitutional liberties, and financial ruin"
http://www.presentdanger.org/papers/sorrows2003.html
[Edit]
Woody says: -- RossL, 15:40:15 11/26/03 Wed
Massive buying in PM stocks today. Woody sez yeah! and happy Thanksgiving!
[Edit]
You guys don't play fair -- volavka, 10:43:58 11/26/03 Wed
I'm gonna quit.
Run it up and then bring it back to 396.00, you creeps.
Guess we'll just have to gap it up to punish you.
[Edit]
Let's see if the math rules today: -- volavka, 05:52:00 11/26/03 Wed
restricted trading cause 2 days off forthcoming.
So we have a mkt dec capped @ 396 breakout point, floor @ 387/388.
Mkt holds within today, then sunday nite/monday breakout to upside.
Watch, wait, and see:
[Edit]
There R No sacred Cows {or {gold} bulls} -- auspec, 21:54:53 11/25/03 Tue
PASSION....OBJECTIVITY........BIAS.......you must be the Judge.
While the pot is being stirred it might just be time to take a peek at possible angles of influence used by influential members of the "gold" community. We are constantly reading the works of the brightest in our market niche........men like James Turk, Ted Butler, John Hathaway, James Sinclair, Harry Schultz etc, etc. I absolutely love reading these and many more experts as they impart their knowledge and experience to the rest of us. For the most part they share freely and graciously what they have come to believe. A debt of grattitude is owed to them and I am most grateful. That being said there is more to carefully analyze.
The gold/silver market is also fraught with many dangers and entanglements & I would like to point out a few at the risk of stepping on a few toes, or hooves {smile}. There are few sacred cows or mammals for that matter here at ER. I am not picking on any of the people I mention in the rest of this article {except Sinclair}, just making sure that all potential disciples of these leaders remain as objective as possible.
Let's start with John Hathaway. His articles and insights are terriffic on thge gold market. He has decades of experience and knows gold as well as anyone. He also runs a gold mutual fund.........tis his livelihood. That's great, who else would you want to run a gold mutual fund. His track record is second to none and I believe him to be as objective as he possibly could be.......still...he runs a gold mutual fund. Simply something to be aware of imh&so. Do you expect him to ever come out with bearish gold projections other than a "pause" or a "breather"?
Let's look at Ted Butler. I get all worked up when one of his new articles comes out and have devoured them all. His attention to detail and tenacity are simply great. The downside...........he derives a living via promoting silver by writing for a coin company. Ted wrote basically in the same style and manner prior to joining up w this company and, for the most part, I believe he still remains true to his original convictions. Lately I have been a somewhat loud proponent of taking on the COMEX fraud by demanding they have sufficient product for delivery and actually recommending taking delivery there. Here's the potential conflict of interest w Ted. He's not for doing this because he believes, from what I understand, that COMEX is a historic institution in the US. Is it also difficult for him to recommend that anyone buy silver on COMEX instead of through some "dealer".........??? I can't say for sure but the potential conflict of interest is there. Am I wrong?
How about James Turk? One of the finest minds and men you will ever find, in my opinion. He is a pioneer in the gold-money field and of course, has his own related business. Does this make him unobjective? I don't really think so, but we must always "filter" what we hear and read from ANY source in order to remain free from potential bias.
How about the gold web sites that also sell product and have a strong handed approach to controlling editorial content? Do you really think they would go along with strong recommendations for buying CRIMEX gold via delivery, for one example, which might detract from their primary purpose? Those of us who have run afoul of commercial interests of internet gold web sites can attest to these problems. In some places, anything that is contrary to "house" interests is taboo, regardless of truth or merit. There is NOTHING quite like an open forum on a non-commercial web site.
The guys that I have the utmost admiration for are the various newsletter writers that make their living from promoting their investment ideas. WOW!! They better be right a great % of the time or they're CANCELLED!!! Some provide such expert commentary over decades or even generations that they can maintain a hugely devoted subscriber base. Legends like Richard Russell, Harry Schultz and many others. They sell their knowledge and advice............what could be a better example of free-market capitalism? Do some buy "product" prior to recommending same to subscribers? Sure they do, tis called "home cooking" and I want them to be invested in what they recommend. The best amongst them will have open disclosure policies about their own stock participations. the worst.........? Well, let's not go there.
How about Bill Buckler and his Privateer which sells absolutely nothing but knowledge and insights into the way the world actually works? Kudos!
What about our "ombudsman", Sir James? He gives of himself tirelessly for sure. He's a real bulldog and loves a fight.........a good one to hitch up the wagon to in many regards. Technical analysis extraordinaire. What's the pitfall? He's got a company to sell for one. He's also got a track record with the likes of Barrick and pretty much refuses to acknowledge that they are involved in blatant manipulations. It's just a "common interest" phenomenon. He's also hopelessly wedded to the derivative game himself.........Mr Gold has become Mr Paper as he has failed to stay abreast of the deeper shennanigans underlying the gold market. Elitist ties and ambitions of his own as well as a voracious ego. Grain of salt is required. He can rant and rave all he wants about his Tan Range being the only company honestly run or gold conferences having conflicts of interest, but I don't see him stepping up and defending his own practices of enticing gold players into derivative games. The man is a hopeless hypocrite who denounces others as being "elitist". I will persist in requesting that he defend his position of advocating paper derivatives on a crooked market instead of physical gold via COMEX or other delivery. Frankly, I don't think he even understands fully how the paper tail has been used to criminally wag the dog for YEARS! Myopia. His badmouthing of other gold companies and their executives is also apalling.
Me? I'm just a bit of a troublemaker and hopelessly flawed, as most humans are, myself. Calling them like I see them, hoping to resonate with a few.
Eyes wide OPEN, RIGHT?
[Edit]
Site down again today? -- Questioner, 20:18:24 11/25/03 Tue
Was this site down again today? Any one out there know the reason? Is it because of Voy being a low cost provider?
Is it because homeland security folks are after someone?
Am I being too paranoid?
Walk in balance, Questioner
[Edit]
GATA.............More Barrikk -- gata, 20:14:35 11/25/03 Tue
10p ET Tuesday, November 25, 2003
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Delightful speculation continues about Barrick Gold's
abrupt decision to stop hedging for 10 years.
This is offered by an expert especially respected by
GATA:
"Either Barrick Chairman Peter Munk took the wrong speech
with him to the London conference or Barrick's banks pulled
the plug.
"I suppose that it is also possible that Barrick is talking
up the gold price so the company can increase its hedge book.
But this isn't likely, because Barrick probably would do
that when the spotlight was shining on the company when it
was presenting at the conference, not the day after.
"In other words, I don't really think Munk grabbed the wrong
speech on his way out the door. Something happened overnight
to cause the about-face. A phone call from Barrick's bankers
is the most logical answer.
"As for that supposed urgent trip of Barrick CEO Greg Wilkins
to New Orleans. ... Well, Bourbon Street is a big draw to some
people. And the food is pretty good down there. Other than
that, I would just be speculating on motives."
Jim Sinclair has more comment on Barrick as well as several
short essays tonight:
http://www.jsmineset.com
Then there's a lot of interesting news out of the San
Francisco precious metals conference.
CBSMarketWatch Editor Thom Calandra is there and
interviews Bob Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report on
gold's challenge at $400 and Bishop's recent trip to
inspect Nevsun's property in Eritrea:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={028291D8-56C7-
47F3-8CB8-CC8B1F4347E3}&siteid=mktw
Or try this abbreviated link:
http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/354
Robert Friedland of Ivanhoe Mines made a presentation
in San Francisco that was reported in the Marin
Independent Journal:
http://www.marinij.com/Stories/0,1413,234~24407~1789838,00.html
MineWeb got comment in San Francisco about gold
prospects in Ghana:
http://www.mips1.net/mgf03.nsf/Current/80256DE10032DB9888256DE90008FE2
D?OpenDocument
Or try this abbreviated link:
http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/355
MineWeb also got comment in San Francisco about
Harmony Gold's plans:
http://www.mips1.net/mgf03.nsf/Current/80256DE10032DB9880256DE90011B84
D?OpenDocument
Or try this abbreviated link:
http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/356
Also of interest. ... NovaGold has won a listing on
the American Stock Exchange:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031125/255725_1.html
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
[Edit]
Micro-Analysis of Markets w a Personal Bias -- auspec, 19:24:38 11/25/03 Tue
"Gold didn't go up 2Day"
"The Dollar didn't go down 2Day"
"The Stock Market didn't collapse"
"Gold & the Buck didn't go in opposite directions"
Had to be the work of the cabal, the ESF or the PPT. There is no longer any such thing as normal market forces or ALL these markets would act according to my knowledge and desires.
Where do we draw the line w all this micro-analysis of markets on an hour to hour and day to day basis? At some point this type of commentary becomes a clanging gong show. I'm sorry if that offends some but it is entirely true and the truth is most often appropriate. The immediate gratification demands of the American psyche has permeated even the gold advocate crowd. It is beyond silly.
Better to step back, take a deep breath and look at the larger picture. All this day to day expectation and hype simply leads to weak hands bailing out on their positions on nearly a moment's notice.
Could it possible be that on some days gold simply has more buyers than sellers and that is sufficient explanation? Goldman Sachs and JPM are the scum of the earth as far as I'm concerned but is every singly gold transaction they undertake an act of conspiracy? They don't trade for anyone who might want to be short gold besides the USG and Friends?
When does this biased commentary become so over the top that it loses its impact? I'm all for enthusiasm and cheering on the faithful, but NO market is going to perform according to anyone's pre-conceived ideas ALL THE TIME. Yep, we see painting of the tape, coordinated selling of gold, market support via Index options, etc..........and all these need to be pointed out, BUT everything that doesn't go our way isn't automatically collusion. There is a danger in excessively painting a picture that is entirely too broad.
Enough already.
Just a few thoughts..............
[Edit]
What @Tai, can we expect... -- Gand, 19:08:13 11/25/03 Tue
...a six pack of Flinter beer to go for?
[Edit]
Ag ? Yikes! -- Galearis, 06:29:54 11/25/03 Tue
Something is happening in silver.....
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif
G.
[Edit]
@All - "Eid Mubarak!!!" -- OmarD, 05:35:47 11/25/03 Tue
OmarD
[Edit]
"Expert Testimony"? -- auspec, 04:25:39 11/25/03 Tue
I'll bet Oliphant wouldn't like to be housed amongst the buggerers...........
[Edit]
Today's 100% UnManipulated "Price" -- CHARTs, 03:21:02 11/25/03 Tue
[Edit]
Teflon Paint... Any Corner Will Do... -- Tai, 03:14:27 11/25/03 Tue
HBM, 08:29:33 11/24/03 Mon -- Says:
[snip]
Tai, I have been tracking the relationships of changes in the $USD, POG, and POS for quite some time. By my calculations, as
of 11/19/03, the $USD has fallen against the Euro in SDR equivalents by 13.5% since Dec. 31, 2002. During that same time
frame POG has risen by 13.4% and POS has risen by 10%.
The case is building rather strongly that the $USD and POG move inversely in lockstep with each other and the only real
abrogation from this established-by-God rule is, when TPTB enter into their manipulative activities. Because God has made this
irresistible rule of economics under the umbrella of His irresistible law of mathematics, all of these manipulations are of necessity
temporary in nature.
Tai, I believe that we agree in principle on this; however, you seem in the past to have taken the position that TPTB will be able
to continue the manipulation (in the same direction) indefinitely, or almost so. I contend that not only can we see the limits of this
manipulation by the numbers, but also, we can see end is very near. The best clue to the fact that the end is near is the
increasing volatility in these price swings. Of course I am not telling you anything that you do not already know.
[unsnip]
-and-
auspec, 15:08:49 11/24/03 Mon: -- Says:
[snip]
We can't even get Tai to see a LONG TERM inverse dollar/gold relationship, how can we expect him to believe the two
should behave in a particular pattern on a daily or even weekly basis?
[unsnip]
Hello Guys...
I'll try not to "swear" too much, so HBM won't need to flinch as he reads this.
...But, I swear, you guys are painting me into a corner which doesn't fit me.
Yes, I have said, often, that POG and US$ are not necessarily always "inverse".
Because they are not. Not short-term. Not long-term. Nor mid-term. EXAMine the
charts and histories of them and you cannot come to any other conclusion.
However, having said that, I'll consent that you are both right. At this time.
Yet, both of you should be prepared for what I asked originally: "Are you
prepared, then, to see $250 POG should the US$ rise (unexpectedly.?.) back up
to the "120" area vis-a-vis other fiats, Euro's notwithstanding.?."
Whatever that word means.
And, even "worse:, are you prepared to, someday, see $50 POG face value coins
circulate side by side with (gasp) a US$ fiat six times stronger than it is
nowadays, and sixty times more honest, as money, demanded by markets tired of
being fooled and conned worldwide out of their honest work, produce and value.
Countries, that nowadays, are haplessly locked into the fiat-pump-loop(s) and
cannot do any better themselves, with their own printing presses and pretty
colored papers. The US$ press is still top dog, because someone wants it that
way. Someone Powerful enough to -let's say- "insist" upon it.
The point is, my point, that there are many unseen and unwholesome and unfettered
forces at work constantly, pragmatically, to make these government fiats perform
magic that would make Pharaoh and Moses seem like kid's stuff.
Infact, were there no such forces suppressing "inflation" as much as they suppress
the POG, the Gold and Silver Eagle's face values would be about exactly what you'd
pay for them with bonafide real paper dollars. That is not the case...
Therefore, it is my contention, that those entities with the Power can, and will,
CONTINUE to make EITHER of them (POG or US$) go in ANY direction they prefer, when
they prefer it, whether we GoldBugs like it or not.
Until something changes. For the better. We are, I believe, nearing such a point.
Will it mean we'll see Gold to the Moon; or $30,000/oz; or forcasts inbetween.?.
No, I insist. We will see instead, reality; demanded; foreseen; and, US$50/oz Coins.
And 5-cent cigars. Yes.
Thanks for waking me up. Now, back to snoozing...
...Tai
[Edit]
ag&ag -- number six, 00:04:08 11/25/03 Tue
For you guys interested in agriculture as well as metals, itro.ob might be a stock you would like... they recycle photochemical waste, turning it into very good fertilizer, while reclaiming the silver. I personally am sick of waiting for them to get it together, and their shareprice is really stuck in an orbit around .15, but I would like to buy and hold some, oneday. Another good lead for diy farming etc is Permaculture by Bill Mollison. It's more the dreadlocked-aussie-hippie version of farming, rather than the Old MacDonald type, but it can produce amazing results....total garden of Edens with hundreds of edible species growing symbioticly, and with minimal energy inputs. There's a whole scene/cult grown up around it.
Now, about itro, they had some news recently which could be very important for silver. From more or less "same-store sales" they've had a big increase in the amount of photochemicals they're receiving, and they explain that this is because of large increases in the use of digital photography!
It would be seriously huge news for silver if it turns out that digital photography is leading to INCREASED consumption of silver rather than decreased, because this would kick away the only plausible idea that the silver bears ever had. Anyhow, read the thing..
--------------
Digital Imaging Increases Demand for Itronics' Photochemical Silver Recycling Services by 45 Percent in Third Quarter 2003
Tuesday November 18, 7:00 am ET
RENO, Nev., Nov. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Itronics Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: ITRO; Frankfurt Stock Exchange: ITG) reported today that used silver-bearing photoliquid volumes received by its subsidiary, Itronics Metallurgical, Inc., were up 45 percent in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2002. The volumes in the first nine months this year were up 18 percent compared to the first nine months of 2002. The bulk of this growth is occurring within the Company's existing base of customers, including consumer color photo processing labs.
"The shift by consumers to increased use of digital imaging is significantly increasing the number of long-life, high-quality color prints being developed in the U.S.," said Dr. John Whitney, Itronics president. "This is directly increasing the amount of used photochemical liquids being generated. Any claim that digital photography would decrease our business has proven to be completely wrong."
more
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031118/latu021_1.html
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That's a BINGO -- auspec, 19:18:22 11/24/03 Mon
RossL steps back and takes a look @ the big picture. Oil for cheap gold. Not to be overlooked in the fiat vs gold battles. ALL economies supporting the fiat banana derive benefit also from available oil.
Winners:
Dollar
Global economies
Middle East Oilers
All GOLD accumulators
Losers:
{long term} Gold squanderers
Bingo Prize------A synthetic oil derivative {smile} or a Sinclair Paper Gold certificate
P.S. There was no joy in Oxford either Sat
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@ Auspec -- RossL, 17:50:30 11/24/03 Mon
Saturday was a sad day for Buckeyes, but there's always next year. This year was a strange one and tainted by scandal.
As for Barrick, they will probably be bailed out since they have all the bigwigs on the board of directors, no? Or maybe Enron-ed?
I was re-reading the original "Another" and if there is a shred of truth to any of his story (I'm not talking about all the subsequent FOA noise) then the Barrick tale fits in.
The bigwigs are managing the gold price to keep oil under control, this was "Anothers" original message. Easy gold for the Saudis in return for tho oil coming out of ther spigot.
If there is a shred of truth to any of that story then it now means the controls are coming off both gold and oil and a new era is dawning.
What better way to control gold than to use Barrick and it's hedgebook? Why are Bush and all those CFR guys on the board of a gold mine anyway?
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ScuttleButt{ox Gold} -- auspec, 16:56:21 11/24/03 Mon
From LeMet w permission:
No matter how you look at it, Barrick’s stunning reversal of their hedging policy last Friday is very bullish for the reasons discussed in Friday’s MIDAS. The buzz in the gold world is about what happened to Barrick between Thursday and Friday? There is only one explanation in my book. It has to have something to do with the Blanchard & Co. case. What we know:
*Barrick’s Peter Munk unexpectedly announced a change in Barrick’s hedging policy from one day to the next, coming across like a chairman who either can’t make up his mind, or was suddenly TOLD what to say.
*CEO Wilkins was supposed to be speak in London, but left for New Orleans on "urgent business" according to MineWeb. New Orleans Federal District Court is where the gold manipulation court case has gone into the Discovery phase.
*I have been told Barrick has learned of the expert witnesses who will be called to testify against them and they were stunned. I have also been informed there is discussion about some damning emails. This is only conjecture as I received this information second-hand, but it comes from a good source and it all fits. You don’t tell the world how great hedging is one day and then do a complete about face the next day without a compelling reason.
*One of the objectives of the Blanchard case is to seek immediate injunctive relief from Barrick, which is a demand they lift their hedges. Perhaps Barrick and Blanchard are working on a settlement, with one of the stipulations being an immediate cessation of hedging.
*Barrick extolled hedging at $300, but is giving it up at $400, not just now but for the next 10 years. Very strange to say the least. Something has to be wrong.
*Barrick is cutting all non-essential spending world-wide. That screams cash flow pinch. What’s causing the cash crunch? Could scared bankers be cutting their credit lines?
END
*******************************************
Comments: Barrick also is a major silver hedger, fyi. The problem with Blanchard and its case is that they might just settle it, being they are so newly outside the box. Wasn't too long ago they were scorned for being basically clueless in regards to the gold market. Obviously their learning curve has a more productive slope than Mr. Paper's.
Barrick and Bre-X, Barrick and Silver, Barrick and hedging, Barrick and JPM, Barrick and Bush, Barrick and spooks, Barrick and our "ombudsman" Sinclair, Barrick & the Queen {haha}........not many FOB's {Friends Of Barrick} are friends of mine. They can have a few of my juniors so I can process their paper, otherwise I'd rather not make deals w the devil. They are a giant hedge fund, meaning a derivative factory.........derivatives, theirs included, are the major tools of our current central planning created out of the Likes of Mary Shelley's famous novel. Only a ranking insider can be an apologist for Barrick, imh&so.
BARRICK...........you are the veekest link. GOODBYE!!
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650.00 1-1-04 -- volavka, 16:27:09 11/24/03 Mon
count down.
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HBM re Gold & Dollar Relationships -- auspec, 15:08:49 11/24/03 Mon
Hello Friend! Personally I don't like to "micro-analyze" the gold/dollar relationship..........that is....try to make it fit into preconceived patterns on a daily basis. That is exactly what Wall street does every day when there are simply more sellers than buyers or more buyers than sellers, yet they have to project some immediate term rationale for exactly WHY this has transpired. Is Pavlov's dog hungry or did he just hear a bell? Know what I mean?
We can't even get Tai to see a LONG TERM inverse dollar/gold relationship, how can we expect him to believe the two should behave in a particular pattern on a daily or even weekly basis? It becomes nothing more than commentary, in fact it's immediate gratification commentary American style.
Gold Up.....Dollar Up
Gold Down...Dollar Down
Gold Up.....Dollar Down
Gold Down...Dollar Up
These are all perfectly normal market gyrations, imho, for a short term market basis. Bill Murphy's job is to privide analysis and commentary for short term market movements; frankly, it's not a job I envy. These entities are simply not on an absolute teeter totter, they merely have an historical statistical correlation.
We, myself included, are so dollar conscious that it's hard to think in terms of gold in relationship to other currencies. Turk's recent charts of gold in numerous other curriencies was a powerful tool, no? THAT is big picture and those are powerful charts telling a most bullish international picture for gold. Most likely, not many of us believe those patterns will resolve in a manner unfavorable to us gold advocates.
Short term expectations often lead to major disappointments. I simply expect gold to continue to do what it has vs. the banana over the last couple years. The trend is your friend {now where did I hear that before?}. The dollar/gold historical inverse relationship will have its day {smile} in the end. If anyone knows of macro events that are dollar positive I'd love to hear them. That is sufficient reason to hold gold long term. That is exactly what the vast majority of Americans don't comprehend.
Your imput is always appreciated.
a
P.S. Your $1T budget deficit prediction {is that right? If not I'll claim it} isn't going to be too far off this fiscal year. Privateer is all over it.
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Flinter -- SLATT, 11:16:33 11/24/03 Mon
No not at all. I see value exchanged for value in the future. The sun allegory was a reference to gold. Sorry to be so obtuse. I've been putting up wood for the past few days and I'm "bushed".
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Mad Farmer Disease -- Flinter, 09:47:43 11/24/03 Mon
Well ET, now you’ve done it. Got me going on Wendell Berry (again).
(If I could just teach the guy that a fiat currency and capitalism are mutually excluseive.
Though fiat and fascism get along famously.)
Enjoy,
Flinter
Fair Use Clause of International Copyright Law
Manifesto:
The Mad Farmer Liberation Front
by Wendell Berry
Love the quick profit, the annual raise,
vacation with pay. Want more
of everything ready-made. Be afraid
to know your neighbors and to die.
And you will have a window in your head.
Not even your future will be a mystery
any more. Your mind will be punched in a card
and shut away in a little drawer.
When they want you to buy something
they will call you. When they want you
to die for profit they will let you know.
So, friends, every day do something
that won't compute. Love the Lord.
Love the world. Work for nothing.
Take all that you have and be poor.
Love someone who does not deserve it.
Denounce the government and embrace
the flag. Hope to live in that free
republic for which it stands.
Give your approval to all you cannot
understand. Praise ignorance, for what man
has not encountered he has not destroyed.
Ask the questions that have no answers.
Invest in the millenium. Plant sequoias.
Say that your main crop is the forest
that you did not plant,
that you will not live to harvest.
Say that the leaves are harvested
when they have rotted into the mold.
Call that profit. Prophesy such returns.
Put your faith in the two inches of humus
that will build under the trees
every thousand years.
Listen to carrion -- put your ear
close, and hear the faint chattering
of the songs that are to come.
Expect the end of the world. Laugh.
Laughter is immeasurable. Be joyful
though you have considered all the facts.
So long as women do not go cheap
for power, please women more than men.
Ask yourself: Will this satisfy
a woman satisfied to bear a child?
Will this disturb the sleep
of a woman near to giving birth?
Go with your love to the fields.
Lie down in the shade. Rest your head
in her lap. Swear allegiance
to what is nighest your thoughts.
As soon as the generals and the politicos
can predict the motions of your mind,
lose it. Leave it as a sign
to mark the false trail, the way
you didn't go.
Be like the fox
who makes more tracks than necessary,
some in the wrong direction.
Practice resurrection.
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@E.T. @SLATT -- Flinter, 09:08:25 11/24/03 Mon
Hi Folks,
ET:
It’s hard to recommend specifid books, Berry especially paints a huge mural. I’ll give it a whirl:
Berry: Home Econcomics
Logsden: The Contrary Farmer
Check out the web, if interested. For example here is an essay by Berry on War:
http://www.futurenet.org/20spirituality/berry.htm
“I’m still trying to decide how this might shakeout on the US vs. other producers with the currency thing thrown in there. I think perhaps that US producers might stand to gain vs. the other guys. Any thoughts?”
Oh, I have plenty of thoughts on this, question is are they worth a damn. SLATT, for instance, has some in his recent posts.
SLATT:
It sounds like you are saying that the “Strong dollar” era will continue indefinitely and the resources of the world will continue to flow to the US for fiat promises. Least that's how I interpret it.
That’s one possibility, I suppose.
Best to you each,
Flinter
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Bankers/lawyers/politicians -- volavka, 08:38:16 11/24/03 Mon
Will continue to rape you:
new form:
http://www.trakrs.com/
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Tai, dottie, auspec, all --see auspec @ 04:29:20 11/24/03 Mon -- HBM, 08:29:33 11/24/03 Mon
Excerpt from Sinclair quote:
…“Now let’s look at the strange market action of gold on Friday. When you review the three minute chart of gold posted here, you will note that the rise in gold from the time of the announcement of Mr. Munk’s reversal of his previously stated position on hedging until the high was reached was one hour and six minutes. It was slow and orderly in form.
"The time required when Goldman entered the market as a seller hitting every bid in sight at consecutive sales to lower levels took but 15 minutes. It was clearly not orderly.
"A review of the US dollar chart with which gold has been trading in a virtually lock-step relation did nothing that would validate a violent line of selling at consecutively lower levels."
HBM comment:
I did not need Mr. Sinclair to tell me the above which is emphasized in bold. Friday was only one of several instances in which the lock-step inverse moves between the $USD and gold have been abrogated. The abrogation goes both ways. There have been short periods also when gold has risen simultaneously with the rise in the $USD.
IMO, when the $USD falls or stays the same while gold falls, the culprit is very simply, “the manipulation of either or both markets by TPTB to stave of the inevitable loss of friendly hind ends.” When the $USD rises simultaneously with a rise in POG, it is generally the result of the backing off from manipulation temporarily to relieve the pressure they have caused. This is a must for them in their quest to keep the POG rise and the $USD fall as orderly as possible.
I can’t wait for the day when they finally get themselves positioned to profit from the fall of the $USD and the rise of POG and OIL. Soon, soon.
Tai, I have been tracking the relationships of changes in the $USD, POG, and POS for quite some time. By my calculations, as of 11/19/03, the $USD has fallen against the Euro in SDR equivalents by 13.5% since Dec. 31, 2002. During that same time frame POG has risen by 13.4% and POS has risen by 10%.
The case is building rather strongly that the $USD and POG move inversely in lockstep with each other and the only real abrogation from this established-by-God rule is, when TPTB enter into their manipulative activities. Because God has made this irresistible rule of economics under the umbrella of His irresistible law of mathematics, all of these manipulations are of necessity temporary in nature.
Tai, I believe that we agree in principle on this; however, you seem in the past to have taken the position that TPTB will be able to continue the manipulation (in the same direction) indefinitely, or almost so. I contend that not only can we see the limits of this manipulation by the numbers, but also, we can see end is very near. The best clue to the fact that the end is near is the increasing volatility in these price swings. Of course I am not telling you anything that you do not already know.
Dottie, concerning Sinclair, I take what I can use from him and spit out the rest. The above quote from him, especially the portion in bold, shows that he is smart enough at least to admit to the glaring facts. The glaring fact is that POG and $USD will move in lockstep inversely over any period in excess of the short-term manipulations of TPTB.
Do not take my comments to mean that I am a fan of Sinclair’s. I read almost anything I can get my mind on. I have an insatiable thirst for information. About the only thing that causes me to pass over information is when the information is presented in a distasteful (to me) way. If profanity is unduly used or filth (as I see it) is forced upon my eyes or ears, I just try to avoid future communications from those people.
My reason is religious in nature. As far as is within me I simply try to abstain from all appearance of evil (as I see it).
HBM
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Flinter -- SLATT, 08:00:00 11/24/03 Mon
"If I may, could I add a question, SLATT?
Why would the rest of the world flood the US will products? (or continue to). In exchange for what?"
If we are talking ag here then I would say because we represent a large market for year round produce. And because productive ag capacity has always been a necessary pillar of strength for all nations so blessed.
And we approach the day in which value is exchanged for value. I value sunshine in both wavelength and solid form. While many covet the wavelength variety so too will they demand the solid variety!
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ET -- SLATT, 07:42:56 11/24/03 Mon
SLATT -- ET, 20:13:42 11/21/03 Fri
"What effect do you see the coming dollar decline as having on the farming scene? I would think that relatively, the cost of production in the US could actually be pretty low. Producers here suffer from an exaggerated currency value. As the dollar declines, do you think that farming will once again become a profitable enterprise? Should we all be buying farmland on the cheap over the next few years as overleveraged players sell at distressed prices?"
Good to see you around here!
I have no idea how the future of our currency will effect the profitability of farming. Too many variables of the political variety both domestic and foreign.
I see the trend in ag-biz developing just as the stock markets since 1982. The trend is always bigger. Yet the product isn't getting better. In fact the product is declining in both $ and food value. And competition is becoming fierce.
I view high quality ag land as the best long term investment available. Just as the stocks P/E are ignored in a stocks valuation, so is the true quality of ag land. The true quality of ag land is its productive capacity for high quality food. Today we mass produce food, but not high quality food.
Valuation has to start with the soil itself. Most farmland in the US is severely degraded in nutrients, tilth, and soil. All three lead to declining yields and an inferior nutritional product. What is generally accepted as good farmland today I believe tomorrow will be seen as poor. Large tracts of the farmland that have all three positive soil attributes are very rare in areas not requiring irrigation. But the land still exists. And at tremendously undervalued prices.
I do see farming becoming a profitable endeavor in the future. I do not believe organic farming will demand the prices currently received. Rather I see the consumers demanding the nutritional baseline to be raised. While that should equate to greater opportunity for small organic farms, it will also hurt overall domestic produce sales. The family garden plot will come back with a vengeance. Most people can grow high value produce at home given the nutritional/monetary incentive. The organic operations will have to be plugged into a large urban market in order to prosper. Grain production will have to remain in the realm of Big Ag while domestic consumption for food decreases. Yet Big ag grain production for fuel or other industrial uses further degrades the land, increasing the value of high quality land.
I think every one needs to evaluate a purchase of farmland based upon their own set of criteria. I insist upon high quality soil, climate, water, improvements, standing timber for fuel, mineral potential, and location for an eye towards both ag market access and future real estate sales.
In general a good rule of thumb is that land which was passed by the settlers by 1890 is land to stay away from if high quality sustainable, profitable, ag production is desired. Poor land back then is worse now. And high quality farmland that has been urbanized will remain too costly to rehabilitate.
Speaking about the nutritional value of cropland, I see it as a growth opportunity for PMs. The day will come when PMs and other off the radar depleted nutrients will be applied to degraded ag land as a necessity of doing business due to the grading of the nutritional content of the food rather than simple eye appeal.
And then there is always the opportunity to ingratiate yourself to the new neighbors. I can dig farming in the nude while putting my hog pen upwind of a certain dentist. Now if my neighbor was the honey king I would be more accomodating with the hog pen while farming in the nude only on the night shift. (Big toothy SMILE!)
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