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Copper shines too -- volavka, 06:29:45 11/24/03 Mon

When you buy, buy the best:
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/11/23/1069522472550.html

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#2and #4 -- volavka, 06:04:55 11/24/03 Mon

PM share price percentages from July 30 to Nov. 18:

1. SBUM 760%
2. MAGR 700
3. ADDRF 614
4. APLL 540
5. CAAUF 434
6. SRLM 313
7. NDMLF 308
8. SUNR 300
9. CDGEF 300
10. EPAR 267
11. MNMM 259
12. KMKCF 200
13. GRZ 197
14. THMG 171
15. CRCE 158
16. CAU 157
17. CBJ 154
18. BWLRF 147
19. BGO 139
20. TLNOF 133
21. GSS 131
22. NJMC 126
23. CDE 125
24. PMU 118
25. WHT 103

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Is Sinclair a Barrick Apologist? -- auspec, 04:29:20 11/24/03 Mon

Here's an excellent overview of hedging by Sinclair {www.jsmineset.com} for you, Questioner. Since JS is our
ombudsman {self proclaimed} it is fair use educational as far as copyright is concerned. Article in its entirety:

A Review of Last Week’s Gold Market

Author: Jim Sinclair

Friday was an extremely important day for gold that is worth reviewing.

As promised, I made some inquiries concerning the day’s action which was driven by a number of extraneous factors including Barrick’s complete reversal of its longstanding hedging policy.

I spoke to people on both sides of the hedging issue and was received with respect almost without exception.

Here is what we know:

1/ Mr. Munk, the Chairman of Barrick Gold, did a 180 degree reversal on hedging within a 48 hour period, telling a Reuters’ reporter that "the commitment to hedging is gone.” He said the company had no plans to hedge over the next ten years, claiming the practice no longer created value.
2/ Since the very public lynching of Barrick’s former President, Randall Oliphant - whom they unceremoniously announced as being “fired -” Munk appears to have assumed much of his former influence within the company.
3/ Also worth noting is the fact that Mr. Oliphant served his boss loyally in financial and accounting positions and along with Mr. Munk brought gold hedging to the forefront of the gold industry.
4/ Barrick made $2 billion on its hedging positions in the bear market.
5/ When the $2 Billion was made, accounting and tax regulations allowed company’s with such profits to defer taxes payable.
6/ Barrick’s recent Annual Statement shows an account named “Future Income Taxes” as a long term liability in the amount of $488,000,000.00 which could be 25% of the profits developed in short gold spreads also called derivative hedges.
7/ Current Assets made up of Cash, Near Cash items, Accounts Receivable and Inventories are shown as $1,329,000,000.00
8/ The seriousness of these future income taxes would usually move outside Directors to demand some action if cash dropped below that level. One would assume that prudent management in Barrick would for conservative reasons consider future income taxes as a deduction from Current Assets for planning purposes.
9/ Rounded off, Current Assets of $1,330,000,000.00 less Future Income Taxes of $490,000,000.00 leaves for planning purposes a cash position of $840,000,000.00.
10/ Mr. Munk is not out of the loop when it comes to management and in fact I believe he is the management.

First Conclusion:

Therefore, I have to conclude that something happened abruptly that caused such a two day, 180 degree reversal of Mr. Munk’s well known and often stated outlook on hedging as being desirable.

What do we know concerning over-the-counter derivative hedging and derivatives themselves?:

They are unregulated.
They are non-transparent
They are not listed on any organized exchange.
They have no standards.
They are valued by computer modeling.
They are created by computer modeling.
They are not clearinghouse funded.
The financial integrity of an OTC derivative depends entirely on the balance sheet of the loser.
But the most important thing to know about derivatives is the fact there is no such thing as a short sale of a commodity free of margin requirements even if set in a non transparent, specific performance contract. Margin may be met by imbedded characteristics in a special performance arrangement called a derivative hedge by a pre-set loan line by a combination of Calls or by other exotic third or four derivatives. Regardless of how you color it, all commodities dealt in the future have margin requirements - period.
We know that Goldman Sachs and Barrick have had business relationships but we do not know for certain whom Goldman Sachs was acting for on Friday.
Second Conclusion:

It is reasonable to conclude that since derivatives have no clearinghouse funding to guarantee their performance, that an intelligent requirement for such a contract would be the condition of the balance sheet of the obligated party – in this case Barrick’s. Such a condition could be the ratio of debt to current assets.

When and why were most derivatives entered into? It became quite popular from 1990 to 2001 to seek non-recourse financing because the price of gold was declining, adding risk to new projects. In order to obtain non-recourse financing, lending institutions demanded that the project owners also sold their gold production short equal to the funds required to pay off the loan after production expenses.

That usually involved selling at least ten years of production short. The loan packages generally had the derivative imbedded in the loan agreement. It was usually a subsidiary of an international investment bank such as J. Aron & Company in London for Goldman Sachs that provided the short gold derivative when a loan was granted.

So the real price at which the derivative was originally set was in most cases at the financing of the new project. For the Bulyanhulu Mine in Tanzania, I would assume the loan and derivative would have been set sometime from January of 1999 to sometime in 2000. The sale price now is a product of the interest earned by a short seller on deferred delivery contracts in the contango arrangement. For those of you that just got lost, gold sellers are paid interest and gold buyers pay interest in deferred sales.

Now let’s look at the strange market action of gold on Friday.When you review the three minute chart of gold posted here, you will note that the rise in gold from the time of the announcement of Mr. Munk’s reversal of his previously stated position on hedging until the high was reached was one hour and six minutes. It was slow and orderly in form.

The time required when Goldman entered the market as a seller hitting every bid in sight at consecutive sales to lower levels took but 15 minutes. It was clearly not orderly.

A review of the US dollar chart with which gold has been trading in a virtually lock-step relation did nothing that would validate a violent line of selling at consecutively lower levels.

Third Conclusion:

The selling by Goldman or by Goldman’s client was intended to prevent gold from moving above $400.

What do we know about Barrick’s hedge position? Although positions can change from day to day, we can consider Barrick’s hedge position to be in the area of 16,000,000 ounces sold in one form or another.

That would mean that for every one dollar that gold moves up, the hedge on the short side would cost the hedge account $16,000,000 dollars. Every ten dollars that gold appreciates would cost the hedge book $160,000,000. Every fifty dollars that gold moves higher would cost the hedge book $800,000,000.00

Yes, technically in-situ (in the ground) reserves can rise in value even more than that but these reserves are of little use if a short term cash need arises.

What I told Mr. Oliphant when I visited him when gold was trading under $300.

First, Mr. Oliphant asked whether I had said that “major gold producers are juniors that got lucky” and if Barrick fit that model. My answer was “yes,” but I qualified it by saying “when you got lucky you also got smart and hired the people needed to make the transition from a junior trading at $0.25 to the major you are today.” That was Mr. Munk’s second significant contribution to his shareholders.

Having seen my advertising in the Mining Journal regarding my negative feelings about hedging, he then asked me what I thought about their hedging program. My answer was that at $305 Barrick had a problem and at $354.50 he had a problem. I am sorry to say that I may have been correct.

Why did I pick the price of $354.50? Well, if you have been listening to me for the last five years you will recall that my calculation of all the hedges put on in the industry by the time they were announced, adding the contango and future price over cash, indicated a breakeven of all these hedges would take place at $354.50 gold. They would have all turned negative and should have triggered risk control programs at $305 and gone under water at $354.50. It appears that dealers may have adhered to risk control program but not the producers.

Fourth Conclusion:

We can’t be sure but from a speculative standpoint if the average of the industry was Barrick’s average on its 16,000,000 ounces short at $354.50, then at $404.50 Barrick would have a debit somewhere for $800,000,000.00 with a cash position of around $840,000,000.00, considering a future Income Tax Liability. That situation in today’s world would require outside Directors to demand a change of course.

Now please be assured that I haven’t any idea whether this has occurred. However, the numbers do suggest that the derivatives are accruing some cost.

It is also logical to assume that if you can make $2,000,000,000.00 short gold in a bear market you can lose $2,000,000,000.00 short gold in a bull market. There is no free lunch in trading.

There is however one thing we do know from Mr. Munk’s statement. He has just predicted a generational bull market in gold. I wonder where he heard that. In stating his plans not to hedge for a decade, he has said that gold is going up over the next ten years.

So what can we conclude with certainty? Someone out there is terrified that gold will move above $400. This person or entity is by circumstantial evidence a client of Goldman Sachs or Goldman Sachs itself. That in all probability has to do with a trigger point in a derivative of an imbedded requirement that is financial and will be hard to meet.

My answer to Mr. Cramer

I read this weekend a missive written by a Mr. Cramer (I thought he was on Seinfeld) who recommended selling gold short because he claimed to make a living following people and companies that are always wrong.

Well, Mr. Cramer apparently doesn’t know that Barrick made $2,000,000,000 short spreading gold in the bear market. So let’s give credit where credit is due. Anyone that can make $2,000,000,000 in a bear market is damn smart - period.

Even if Barrick has a loss now, it is certainly nothing like what they made and apparently they are doing something about it.

That is an act of sanity - not the act of a fool.

END

Comments: I don't see a problem with an explorer selling their findings to a major company, this is simply the structure of the market. Those talents that allow for successful exploration are often quite different than those required to raise large amounts of capital and bring an actual mine into fruition.

Sinclair sits in a compromised position because of his loyalty to Barrick. See past dealings.........and as you say, hopeful future dealings. He is unwilling to see the real forces behind gold manipulation and simply calls them a group with common interest.

Mr. Paper, indeed!

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Jason Hommel's latest silver stock analysis -- number six, 04:23:01 11/24/03 Mon

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1069597364.php

His analysis may only be an inch deep, but it IS a mile wide, so there's some good info in there. He's also moving markets each week with these imho, so it's worth a read for that alone. He still doesn't understand ima exploration, but I don't mind that... let the price stay low until christmas drill results... Feliz Navidad.

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@Dotti.. Link to hAug's Deflation Essay.. -- Rex, 23:59:06 11/23/03 Sun

Hi Dotti..

TurboHawg's essay: "Deflation, Done Deal" is still on ER Forum 2,
if you scroll down below all the spammer's posts.

To get to ER Forum 2, click above, where it shows "FORUMs"

Or, here's a shortcut to that exact essay. Just click on it:

hAug's "Deflation, Done Deal" Essay

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Current POG, POS, POP & U$D Live Price -- CHARTs, 22:50:24 11/23/03 Sun

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Periodic Ponzi Update PPU -- $hifty, 22:32:32 11/23/03 Sun

Ponzi Chart

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1,893.88 + Dow 9,628.53 = 11,522.41 divide by 2 = 5,761.20 Ponzi

down 88.27 from last week.

Thanks for the link RossL

Go GATA !

Go GOLD !

$hifty

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qwerty -- Tree in the Forest, 21:35:03 11/23/03 Sun

If your looking for mining stock options, you may want to consider Meridian Gold (MDG), Gold Fields of SA (GFI), and Harmony (HMY). I have been posting about these companies for several years but people seem enamored of the juniors. The fact is that these companies are large, well managed, unhedged and are managed for the benefit of shareholders. In addition, because of their prominence, they will likely move the fastest when the shit hits the fan. That may be important to you when you want to take quick profits and rollover into silver. And they have options. Good luck to you my friend, whatever you decide to do.

PS. Eliot Spitzer is one of the biggest gun control advocates on the planet and is suing gun manufacturers. Enough said.

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Sinclair & fate of hedger-hogs -- Questioner, 19:22:33 11/23/03 Sun

Sinclair sure does have an interesting history. Perhaps his learning curve towards manipulation is peaked since the shorts may have taken some $$$ from him. In life it seems until it is personal we don't really believe it or understand the full impact. Is Sinclair an opportunist?

This will lead to some questions that I seek to understand about this whole hedging program. From what I understand Barrick, Placer Dome , and a few other have millions of ounces sold forward at a specific $ price. As the price moves up they are obligated to delivery this at that specified price. Is this a hedge of their reserves? So as we go forward a certain amount(%)) of yearly production must meet this hedge. Why do some say that these hedgers will go bankrupt if the price goes up too high or fast?

It would seem that if they have ample reserves it would cut into their profits and not send them under but their share value would underperform. Has this been the case so far? People vote with their pocket book and make a choice not to buy a hedge-hog. Perhaps sooner of later the hedge-hog makes a choice to change their ways and fix the mess they are in. Of course their are lots of accounting tricks out there but they will have to pay a price.

Is this where Sinclair comes in? He has an exploration outfit on the African Range that has tangentical value to a Barrick that he will offer at a price$$+$$$ to help rescue what loose oliphants created when they ran the bear off the range. Rules have changed and the bull is back in charge of the range. Oliphant is long gone but his creation has backed Barrick into a corner needing a certain fix to get out of this mess. The London gold fix in trending bullish, options are not what they are/were/or perceived to be. To be sure is the hedge-hog scam up?

Since Sinclair knows how this game is played, being a veteran of the jig he created a home on the African Range in such a position to offer a way out for a barricaded and trapped hedge-hog who is in need of larger reservations to stay in the game.

Do I have this right? (Please correct me if I am wrong) So it seems to me if you were to be out exploring the ranges looking for elephants the value will be in exploration companies with reserves.

Will this be a help or hindrance to these juniors to be associated with the hedge-hogs or does it depend on the price and how fast it goes up? I am sure their are other placer type hedge-hogs out there who will have to pay a price. Doesn't Nova gold have a deal with Placer's dome?
How will that effect the value of Novagold going forward?
Was it Euro-Nevada or Franco-Nevada that eventually morphed into Normandy and then Newmont? Did Pierre LaSonde(SP?)make his entry into Newmont this way? Is this what Jim Sinclair has on the horizon through Tan Range?

Could you make the analogy that exploration companies are like parisites waiting to be munched by a host for a $$$ price? Eventually part of the parisite runs the host. Well that is my take on this wide ranging gold exploring path. Do you think this is where Sinclair wants to go or am I just BarRanged?

Enough of my ?'s just trying to seek understanding.
This forum is truly great made so by the individuals who pass through and share! Thanks for your sharing of thoughts.

Walk in Balance

Just searching for answers along the trail. Sojo I trust your intuition and let me know when you get it figured out about Sinclair. All your help is greatly appreciated.

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RossL -- auspec, 17:47:22 11/23/03 Sun

Mr Paper.........??

I still owe ya a favorite beverage and know you could use it after the Blue rampage yest. That one hurts, no?

364 days can seem a long way off..............

Regards!

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@hAug -- dotti, 17:42:43 11/23/03 Sun

I tried to reference your essay: Deflation, a Done Deal on Forum 2, but was unable to get to Forum 2. Could be my own ineptitude, but could you post a link? Anybody?

Thanks. dotti

[Edit]

Auspec - on Sinclair -- RossL, 17:35:29 11/23/03 Sun

At least Sinclair has given up on his silly claim of a $500 gold cover clause. Or was it $550, I don't remember the exact figure, he hasn't mentioned it in a few months.

Yep, Sinclair has a slow learning curve. Just a few months ago he had full faith that the Washington - New York cabal could save the $ and keep a gold cover clause operating. With what - ??? - with just more fiat paper gold promises I suppose. Maybe he is starting to see the light. But I don't know if somebody who has played in the paper casino for so long can imagine it's demise.

[Edit]

Sojo -- auspec, 17:20:39 11/23/03 Sun

Approach the throne gingerly..................smile.

In the end Sinclair is like most of us..........flawed humans, mixed bags..........he just doesn't know it.

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auspec on Sinclair -- Sojourner, 17:06:20 11/23/03 Sun

Hello auspec,
For over a year, I have been building a file on Sinclair because of my negative "gut feeling" about him. I have emailed him numerous times and have never received a reply. IMO, he resents being asked about his opinions by a "nobody" like me and thereforth ignores them.

I have expressed my "feeling" about him on this forum before, but was answered with what an expert he is and how nice a personal meeting was. I hope that will be the case when I complete my research. Because I would like to dispell the Negativity on grounds other than his arrogance and self-proclaimed gold expertise above all others.

I will write an email concerning your question, but I won't expect a reply. But at least it will keep the question before him. Maybe I'll sign it as Warren Buffett's aide. (Only kidding.)

Scrapping along,
Sojo

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Follow Up on Sinclair -- auspec, 15:45:31 11/23/03 Sun

FWIW........I have directly sent information to James Sinclair asking him to defend his position as "Pied Piper of Paper Gold". It is a legitimate and worthwhile request but one to which he has failed to respond. These aren't just cheap shots aimed his way. Anyone as involved in COMEX as he is should take the time to defend why he participates in AND coaches others to participate in a fraudulent market. He USED to say it wasn't fraudulent, now he pleads for help from Spitzer.............which is it?

His work now needs a disclaimer....................TA on a fraudulent COMEX gold market...............AT YOUR OWN RISK!

A few people questioning him on this issue or forwarding same to him might bring him around towards a credible explanation of why he continues to further a crooked market.

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@All -- dotti, 15:30:02 11/23/03 Sun

The thing that concerns me about the CitiBank news and the Barrick, not hedging news is the possibility of disinformation.

The Cabal like nothing more than to set us up to think that this is "The Big One", then, like Lucy and Charley Brown, remove the football, time and again.

It seems almost too good to be true--the bullion banks, et al are backed into a corner--this time, for sure.

It sure is fun to watch!!!

dotti

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Footnote: To Wally World -- IronHead, 15:07:46 11/23/03 Sun

I'm sure none of the products sold in Wally World, are made with Chinese prison, child, or slave labour......or near the going Chinese average labour rate, of 61 cents per hour.

Wonder if there is an 'enforcement' arm, monitoring the World's largest slave labour camp?

Perhaps, perhaps......not?
IH

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GATA -- gata, 14:53:44 11/23/03 Sun

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA isn't in the investment advice business, but maybe
we can be forgiven for alerting our supporters to
commentary likely to make them less agitated or neurotic
about gold. In that spirit the new commentary of Robert
Bishop, editor of Gold Mining Stock Report, just posted
at Kitco, is highly recommended. Bishop's commentary
is titled "Preoccupation With the Short Term" and his
advice is against it, given a long-term bull market in
gold. You can find Bishop's commentary here:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Goldreport/nov212003.html

Also, Business Week Online has an excellent interview
with USAA Precious Metals and Minerals Fund manager
Mark Johnson, who remarks about the inverse relationship
between the gold price and interest rates -- maybe the
most important observation of GATA's long research,
after the rigging of the gold market itself. Johnson notes
that interest rates are becoming increasingly negative
-- falling behind the inflation rate -- and that this is
great for gold. The Johnson interview is headlined "Why
Gold's Gleam Isn't Likely to Dim" and you can find it
here:

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2003/pi20031119_4703
_pi057.htm

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/347

The bullion banks, underwritten by the U.S. government,
may be able to keep the gold price under $400 through
this week's futures contract expirations. But any
disappointment that causes our side should be blown
away by confidence in the fundamentals and long-term
trend. That is the essence of what these two experts
are saying.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

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Flinter-san....The Farm Pickle Conundrum.... -- IronHead, 14:34:25 11/23/03 Sun

Or should that be "farm condom"; as in prophelactic to profitable enterprises on our soil.

A bit short on time here; but find the following link and article to be {possibly} applicable to the future farm industry, as well as ALL industry being shipped out, while the cheap goods come marching in to u.s.

Remember when the scrap metal went to Japan, and came back slightly reformulated to u.s. during WWII? Wonder what is being reformulated over yonder, at the current big red 1?

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/77/walmart.html

snip - for fair pickle education use and abuse.

"Therein lies the basic conundrum of doing business with the world's largest retailer. By selling a gallon of kosher dills for less than most grocers sell a quart, Wal-Mart may have provided a service for its customers. But what did it do for Vlasic?
It's the story of what that pressure does to the companies
Wal-Mart does business with, to U.S. manufacturing, and to the economy as a whole. That story can be found floating in a gallon jar of pickles at Wal-Mart." end snip

Yup, we're in a pickle......{couldn't resist...Hau!}

Flinter-san....finding a thinly traded crop Wally World can't leverage, might be in one's best interest.
Knowing of any premium 'nuts' and nutty growers, in a current closed market, that would align in agreement to market and distribute outside and away from the China Wally World connection, might be prudent and sage advise. Better forearmed than foreskinned, eh?

Conundrum'n along,
I-Head

Note: Flinter-san... Following rant, not directed towards you. Just general fuming in the "qwerty" tradition. Just kidd'n qwerty.....you rock our world; wishing more did around u.s.!

P.S. Have never spent one frigg'n penny in a Wally World store! Realized it was the McDonalds-ization of Amerika from the get-go. The path to all becoming an automaton, working in the same company box, for the same nationalized store, is all too appealing for the average Griswald out there, ne?

P.S.S. The Mrs. and I participated in a Holiday bizzare yesterday, with 70 or so vendors, all local people, selling items THEY made with their own American ingenuity, creativity, integrity, and honest labor.....what a revelation.
Oh, and Mrs. I-Head almost sold out her home made herb {no, not "that" herb!} cookies, with 50% of the profit going to 'Doctors Without Borders'....So to any naddering neigbobs; some DO practice what they preach!

Ranting again...Hmmm, must not be enough lavender in the cookies...Hau!

P.S.S. For the cookie and herb monsters out there; a few of the traditional {purported} uses for the following herbs - which by the way, are all used in Mrs. IH's cookies. Sorry, can't divulge details, as all proprietary formulations, concocted in the elven forests.

Lavender - calming and soothing tensions; colds
Lemon Verbina - digestion, nervousness, and colds
Mint - improves spirits
Rose pedals - decreases anxiety and depression; memory improvement
Rose thorns - alimentary canal disfunction {just spoof'n!!}
Thyme - all purpose tonic for; digestion, coughing, antiseptic, respiration
Cardamon - digestion and colds
Ginger - gastritis {in combo with Rose thorns...grin}
skin infections, arthritis

Not to be misconstrued as medicinal advise in lieu of anointed AMA, FDA, ADA, USDA, and other vertically constricted seuthsayings.

[Edit]

Rumors and outright storytelling -- HBM, 12:52:15 11/23/03 Sun

Excerpt from volavka post @ 06:08:55 11/23/03 Sun:

“Geo Ure at Urban Survival offered the following story yesterday: ‘ I learned on Friday of a coin shop owner who reportedly was contacted by a New York gold firm and asked if he would sell the NY brokerage 10,000 ounces of gold. "I don't have that kind of inventory," was his reply. "Well, can you do 5,000?" Turns out he might be able to do that amount - over time - but the kicker to the story is the price. "We'll give you $19 over spot if you commit by close of business today [Friday].’

End of excerpt

HBM comment:

That rumor hardly stands the light of day. I am a little bitty broker of sorts and I could easily buy 10,000 1-Ounce Gold Eagles from one supplier and make a very good commission on the transaction if I had the $4 million dollar bank account. The point is that a legitimate N. Y. Brokerage could easily buy the coins from my source for less than the purported offer to the imaginary coin dealer.

IMO, this rumor is just that, a rumor, and not a very creative one at that.

HBM

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$ Rumblings -- auspec, 11:39:31 11/23/03 Sun

Couple of issues highlighted by Bill Buckler's Privateer {www.privateer.com}:

1. The US, according to Javier Solana, Europe's Chief of Foreign Policy {the equivalent of our Colin Powell}, is looking for the exits in Iraq.

2. Citibank closed all its long dollar positions on Tues. Nov. 18.

"The Privateer now makes the worldwide call that this is the start of the GLOBAL US DOLLAR CRISIS."

Gee, it does seem at least remotely possible that Citibank is acting on early knowledge of events heading our way. At least it does to this conspiracy theorist. Buckler makes the point that the US $ is held and traded around the globe as the world's reserve currency largely because of the US military presence globally. It is definitely not nice to fool mother dollar. Force has been our "trump card" and this force played out for the world to see in Iraq. Ya know what happens when your trump card gets over trumped.....................??

Now, those of us who believed that the US forces were used as the military arm of the UN {NWO} to take out a "rogue" national leader have long expected the US to turn the program over to others now that Saddam is vacationing elsewhere. We do laser guided bombs much better than we do policing, water works and museums. Who's next?

I wish Buckler was correct that US foreign military escapades are drawing to an end, but, alas, this theory will likely come up short in the not too distant future. Cowboys gotta get out on the range ya know. He's likely nailed the dollar however...........there are feint tremors and all the animals are fleeing to safety already.

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mr v....................call me jaded? -- auspec, 10:34:41 11/23/03 Sun

It is beyond posible for me to believe that the great state of NY, world headquarters for a corrupt monetary system, has an "Elliott Ness" running around cleaning up each and every fraud he can find; speaking of Spitzer of course. An incorruptable NY watchman?

So he cleans up a few mutual fund and currency bad apples..........he'll get in way over his head if he pokes too deep. Ted Truman and his ilk won't stand for it. Is Spitzer foolhardy or naive enough to believe we are still a "free market" economy. I figured a few greedy rascals simply overstepped some near invisible boundary lines, got excessively avaricious, and needed to be used as an example. Much like the Martha Stewart case.

Sinclair, playing to Spitzer, is one for the ages. As much as I want gold to go up, which means CRIMEX gold, this guy is entirely too much for me. The bankrupt system should have been exposed long ago and allowed its final "chapter" {11} to play out. Maybe, back when "Mr. Gold" previously took on the world's gold price setting mechanism, CRIMEX was run fairly and squarely. Those days are long gone and Sinclair was in total denial until this last week or so when he now decides to cry FOUL. It was the "cartel of common interest", not a crooked run establishment until just recently. I guess the learning curve is slow.........even for Kenny and Harry's fellow mutual admiration advocate. And this is the market that he has encouraged so many players to participate in? How much damage has that caused to various individuals? TA is wonderful and it may even work on this rigged game, but it's best applied in a fair casino. The Sinclair ego figures he'll win in spite of the house "rules" and he likely will. He will deserve a hearty "Thanks" and I will participate in same. Still, his is a paper mentality, and I dare say he has mislead MANY.

So............we continue forward with CRIMEX as front and center. Just like the Privateer snippet lately posted here stated...........most everyone will be happy so long as they get their end goal of an increased POG. We want our slice of the central planning pie and then we'll shut up and disappear to the beach or wherever once that happens. Honest markets aren't the end goals.........?? Isn't that what gold best represents in the long run?

CRIMEX........??? Run it with appropriate liquidity, run it honestly OR SHUT IT DOWN!! TAKE DELIVERY ON COMEX OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD!!! If it were an honest market it could accomodate.

Spitzer or Sinclair....?.........I'm not gonna hold my breath. Anyone have info to the contrary on Spitzer? I say he's an attack dog on a short lease {and he's comfortable with the entire "lease" issue}.

Barkin along,

a

[Edit]

Volavka -- $hifty, 10:28:42 11/23/03 Sun

Volavka my coin dealer told me a similar story about a week and a half ago. His big buyer was a fund out of Chicago.
Im off to the coin show in Daytona Beach. This could be the last of the cheap gold!
Tonight could be interesting!

$hifty

[Edit]

GATA -- gata, 09:57:27 11/23/03 Sun

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA consultant James Turk, editor of the Freemarket
Gold & Money Report and proprietor of GoldMoney,
has posted new commentary at GoldMoney's Internet
site, "Approaching the Breakout Point." This commentary
tracks gold's performance in currencies other than the
U.S. dollar. You can find it in the "Founder's
Commentary" box at the GoldMoney home page here:

http://goldmoney.com

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

************************************

I resisted making any Turk{ey} jokes............oops!

[Edit]

Bursting bubbles - - - @QWERTY, ALL -- journeyman, 08:50:59 11/23/03 Sun

Hi QWERTY, ALL!

Don't mean to burst any bubbles here but - - -

Americans may not be as stupid and sheepleized as you think.

Why do I make such a heretical suggestion? Well, because only about 77 million of the 197 million voting age Americans, a little over 39% cast a ballot at all in the 2000 presidential election -- and that's the election with the heaviest voter turn-out.

That means:

1. About 61% of Americans refrained from voting at all, giving the non-voter establishment a victory margin of more than three to two -- considered a landslide by democratic standards.

2. The Republican/Bush "mandate," amounted to just under half the votes cast or 19+% of voting age voters (vs. ~20% for Democrats = the ~39+% total).

So can the Bushies claim a mandate when only 19+% -- about one in five -- of our country-folks voted for them? Apparently they can -- and with a straight face yet!!

But from our viewpoint, less than one in five fellow voting age Americans "mandated" a "Homeland 'Security'" super-spy agency, only one in five "mandated" the coming massive deficits that, as Hill Billy Mitchell so well documents will blow the nearly $7 trillion current (November 23, 2003) "national" debt [1] to astronomical proportions easily large enough to destroy the u.S economy, only one in five "mandated" Bush's disastrous Iraq Attack as per the PNAC (Project for the New American Century) plan, justified by the Bushies because . . .

"The United States has for decades sought to play a more permanent role in Gulf regional security. While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein." Global Eye --Dark Passage, By Chris Floyd, The Moscow Times, Friday, Sep. 20, 2002. Page XXIV

In short, only one in five Americans may directly approve of Bush II and his plans, and, embarassingly to the political establishment, less than two in five approve of the whole American government system -- as currently constituted -- enough to even cast a vote!! [2]
In other more democratic countries, that would cause the election to be nullified.

Keep that less-than 20% "mandate" in mind when all those police state practices, terrorist attacks (either "real or promulgated") etc., begin to happen.

And especially keep that 20% in mind when all the B.S. -- implicitly ass-u-me-ing the ah, gentleman, has the support of the people -- starts exuding from the militaryindustrialbusinessgovernmentmedia complex propaganda mills.

So every time Bush opens his mouth, and especially when he makes some sort of reference to how he's speaking for "we the people," someone needs to correct the, ah, gentleman. Someone needs to remind him -- or someone who's listening, -- "You're not speaking for us at all, Dubya -- at best, you're speaking for the 2 in 5 of the people who were actually silly enough to vote, but more likely, you're not even speaking for the 1 in 5 who were actually ill-advised enough to vote for you.

And further more, to put you in proper context - - -

Appearing on the TV show Hollywood Squares, American Idol creator Simon Cowell got the question, "Did more people vote in the [Bush vs. Gore] 2000 presidential election or on the first American Idol." Cowell said, "What's more important? Of course more voted for American Idol." The contestent disagreed -- and lost! More voted for the first American Idol than voted for U.S. president in the 2000 election. [3] -Hollywood Squares, ~July 17, 2003

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Oh, and all you folks who did give-in to the political establishment, if you come to feel duped and abused, remember, you can always join us non-voters next time -- and become an automatic winner!

P.P.S. An alternative? Take a page from native Americans:

People who do not vote for an issue-whether they abstain or vote against it-often resent having to abide by it and insist that they should not be affected by the final decision since they did not themselves affirm it. A number of Indian groups-such as the Hopis here in the Southwest-are still divided over the issue of their constitution, those who voted against it or who did not participate in the constitutional election, insisting that they should not be bound by the vote of the others. Journal of American Indian Education, Volume 3 Number 1, October 1963, INFORMAL POWER STRUCTURES WITHIN, INDIAN COMMUNITIES, James E. Officer and thanks to Flinter

NOTES:

[1] "Corporate government debt" is a more accurate label. return

[2] That means that the $44 trillion unfunded ponzi schemes are also consciously or directly approved by less than ~40% of our fellow Americans. return

[3] And GW Bush, who became president, lost the popular vote. His election was decided by the U.S. Supreme Court over challenges to the Florida vote. return

[Edit]

correction -- volavka, 07:13:44 11/23/03 Sun

add in 234= 650.00,

[Edit]

396+20=416 -- volavka, 06:08:55 11/23/03 Sun

add in 134.00 before 1-01-04.

I see growing speculation and rumors of behind-the-scenes stress beginning to circulate in the financials and metals market. Geo Ure at Urban Survival offered the following story yesterday: " I learned on Friday of a coin shop owner who reportedly was contacted by a New York gold firm and asked if he would sell the NY brokerage 10,000 ounces of gold. "I don't have that kind of inventory," was his reply. "Well, can you do 5,000?" Turns out he might be able to do that amount - over time - but the kicker to the story is the price. "We'll give you $19 over spot if you commit by close of business today [Friday]."

What? Does this mean that gold is going to pop up $20 next week alone?

And, in reference to the Barrick announcement about cessation of forward hedge activity, Ure had this to add: "We'll be watching the NYC Forex trading scandal. Turns out that the latest development in that related-to-metals-pricing mess, NY AG Spitzer has been talking with at least two of the money traders involved - and they may be talking. Same source tells us the Exchange Stabilization Fund's manipulations of the metals may come out - and rumor is that the scandal could grow north of $1 trillion because its gone on for about 20-years. (ESF was officially set up after the 1987 market dive) Talk about lawsuits against a rigged casino...wowzer...I can see 'em now. "

Closer to home, got an e-mail from a buddy who is now an advisor with major financial consulting firm. They are doing a strong business in the advisory area based on significant losses incurred by bank clients in their collateralized mortgage obligation porfolios (CMO), mutual fund operators asking for reviews of their trades so as to acertain if late trading has happened (measuring risk of being indicted), and increasing incidences of mortgage company operators being told by regulators that their internal auditors were too incompetent to review operations. In the latter case, outside auditors are coming in with greater frequency.

Futures market volitility becoming more noteworthy. Am reminded of D. Noland's statement from this past August:

"All facets of the Credit system have been firing on all cylinders, with resulting massive Credit growth barely sustaining the Bubbles. The banking system, the GSEs, the Wall Street firms, the REITS and the hedge funds have all ballooned over the past few years. Who, then, today has the capacity to take risk from the scores of speculators looking and needing to offload? Well, the explosion of the interest rate derivative market has never made much sense. Somehow the GSE and mortgage securities are apparently able to balloon forever, with players enjoying the capability to easily and inexpensively hedge interest rate risk. But to whom? Who is going to take the other side of the interest rate trade - a "trade" that is ballooning in size and must continue to balloon to ward off a serious risk of Credit collapse? That is the question. One thing appears clear today, the Fed has lost control of the interest rate market, with ominous portents for the highly leveraged and speculation-rife U.S. Credit system."

[Edit]

@Flinter & HBM.. -- Webmaster: Rex, 01:34:00 11/23/03 Sun

My usual server's email function is often overwhelmed with spam junkmail,
so I keep it offline.

The alternate (best/only) way to contact me is/are the two "contact" modes:

Look for the ER copyright logo at the bottom of the ER split-frame:

" ©2003 Rex Walking Bear - Contact Webmaster - Revised: Jul 11 2003 "

or, look for the forum's similar version at the top of the ER forums:

" [ Contact Forum Admin ] "

All you need to do is click on either one, and fill in the blanks..
Those send secured forms to me via an email path that's non-spamable.

I will respond to those as soon as possible.

..Rx

[Edit]

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delicacy of this system. Have a nice trading!

[Edit]

Volavka -- $hifty, 23:57:17 11/22/03 Sat

Mr.V : The only thing that hit me right off was the depth to bedrock. Your best gold should be on the bedrock. 300 to 400 ft is a lot of overburden to move. But the 300 + feet of gravel could hold good values . They say " The gravel has been deposited in layers and over the history of the region has been interdispersed with layers of volcanic ash and clays of one to two feet thick." I would think this could give you a good pay layer on the top of the clay layers. The clay layers can act as a false bedrock and have gold deposited on top of it. The property sounds like it could be lots of fun.
Also I hear that the price of gold is going up !

$hifty

[Edit]

alternative ag -- Questioner, 22:07:51 11/22/03 Sat

There certainly will/is a need for alternative agriculture! This genetically enginerred seed that the corporate world is pushing on us is part of the death culture and addiction. Rats and mice won't even eat the stuff and we want and are feeding our population with it. Another great investment besides gold is non-hybrid seed that is not contaminated which will make alternative ag very big in the future.

Walk in Balance

[Edit]

auspec re Bill O'Reilly -- number six, 21:44:50 11/22/03 Sat

I had heard of this guy but never seen his show until the other day. My first impression was that he really reminds me of Frank Burns from MASH, although I don't know if anyone else would see the resemblance. Anyhow, like with Frank Burns, it's sometimes healthy to have obnoxious cretins around to let out your anger at. Bu I fear this O'Reilly guy is spawning too many more of them through his media.

[Edit]

@ HBM & Flinter -- beesting, 21:44:30 11/22/03 Sat

HBM, I do have your semo.net address but when I tried to send it to Flinter's yahoo address it came back to me undeliverable.

Flinter, if REX is gone for awhile send me an e-mail at my old address and I can give you HBM's semo address.

Trying To Help........beesting.

[Edit]

Flinter -- ET, 21:06:05 11/22/03 Sat

Hi Flinter – how you been doing?

“ET, have you by chance read Wendell Berry or Gene Logsden? There are far bigger issues imbedded in this topic than just economics.”

No, I haven’t. What do you recommend?

“If you look at the energy/fossil products picture of modern American Ag, you will see that it is extremely dependent upon cheap oil. It is cheap oil which allowed (what I call unsustainable agr) to evolve to its present state. As I have said, the end of cheap oil is the end of American agr. USA agr. will (return?) to something ‘sustainable’.

”What that ‘something(s)’ will be will come out of what we today call ‘alternative’ ag.”

I’m unsure, Flinter, about this cheap energy thing. At least up ‘til this point, energy has been cheap on a relative basis. I tend to believe the reason for this is that energy is plentiful relative to other things. As you surmise, it may not be in the future.

Another take on this might be that even if energy becomes more expensive, it will be more expensive for everyone. As US agriculture will pay the same price as others for energy, so then it might become more a matter of operating efficiency. US agriculture seems to operate relatively efficiently, despite the regulatory atmosphere.

I think you’re right about ‘alternative ag’. If energy becomes more expensive on a relative basis, alternative procedures will be adopted to get more from the energy factor of production.

I’m still trying to decide how this might shakeout on the US vs. other producers with the currency thing thrown in there. I think perhaps that US producers might stand to gain vs. the other guys. Any thoughts?

[Edit]

Rex - my email address -- HBM, 16:45:31 11/22/03 Sat

My old hotmail email address is no longer any good.

Dottie and Beesting have my current email address at
semo.net if you do not have it. This shall to serve to authorize dottie or beesting to pass my semo.net email address on to you if you do not have it. Or they can also pass it on to flinter if they have flinter's email address.

Thanks

HBM

[Edit]

@ SLATT re China dumping ag productions on US -- Flinter, 16:00:58 11/22/03 Sat

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/031119/323/eee30.html

[Edit]

@ Beesting -- Flinter, 15:08:44 11/22/03 Sat

I concur.

Sad state of affairs.

Being a producer makes you a suspect, if not target or a terrorist.

Perhaps it is time to "Shrug". May be all a producer of wealth can do.

Best Sir,
Flinter

[Edit]

@Rex -- Flinter, 15:04:07 11/22/03 Sat

Hey Rex.

How does one contact you via email these days?

The address I have does not appear to work and the address below appears to go to your host.

Many thanks,
Flinter

[Edit]

Flinter @ 07:10:23 11/22/03 Sat -- HBM, 11:01:37 11/22/03 Sat

Hey Flinter

I would be glad to correspond.

See my message below to Rex

HBM

[Edit]

@ volavka & Flinter......A "FREE" Opinion....FWIW! -- beesting, 10:58:42 11/22/03 Sat

Northwestern USA investments.....Farmland & Mining......Brought to you from the proposed "state" of Jefferson, please click on:

http://www.jeffersonstate.com/

1. Short term...."PESSIMISTIC"!

2. Long term & very long term....."OPTIMISTIC"!

Why pessimistic?

As you probably know the(1840's to 1960's) northwest was settled by miners, homesteaders-farmers, & eventually evolved into a timber based economy.....with "some" manufacturing/industry done mostly in the larger cities.

All that has now "mostly" changed for a variety of reasons.
One reason:
The natural beauty of the unspoiled land brought many,many visiters and new settlers from all over the world......I'm talking about the 1960's to the present. They in turn had many, many relatives & friends visit some more.

This caused the "NEW" settlers(mostly pensioneers) to create a newly formed federal/state enviorn-mental-ist, and grass roots block(The E.P.A.) that prohibited any and almost all new plans for economic expansion.....Some of their off-spring are considered radicals, since they block any type of mining, timber,farming expansion, with their bodies, whenever they feel the natural landscape or water supplies, will be damaged.

***These people who don't know the difference between real "WEALTH" and it's creation, from a paper money orientated economy have brought the once economically powerful Northwestern USA, to its knees!!!***

First volavka, good buddie, my opinion on your Gold mining URL:

http://www.homestead.com/theclaimpost/PineCreek.html

This site made very clear it was a "Placer Type" operation, which according to everything I've read, loses a very large percentage of the recoverable Gold, which is made up of micro-scopic sized particles. In the distant past placer Gold mining was all there was, but we are finding out today that some of the very early Gold mine tailings still contain large amounts of Gold.

( Ref: ERGO[East Rand Gold & Uranium Co.] is a South African division of Anglogold that only works old tailings and slimes to remove Gold, that was not previously recovered.)

Hence, again IMHO, Oregon E.P.A. and associates will block any type of Gold mining operation that "dissolves" the Gold and later parcipitates it back into a metallic form.......So what would be the alternative for this seemingly large amount of Gold just waiting to be processed?

Answer: When the price of Gold goes up to the point where trucking or hauling by rail-car to the "already existing" Gold processors in northern Nevada, becomes feasible economiclly, I'm sure some type of agreement will be worked out between the companies that mine the Gold and the companies that process it.........Bottom Line:
It's A Gold Mine With Tremendous ""Future""Potential!!!
*****************************************************

Flinter, my other good buddie, some more opinion on farming.

We all suspect the Gold/Silver pricing mechanisms are manipulated by somebody.(Gvt.,Bankers,Big business,rich guys, or a combination of all of these people)
Let's name these people, "The Paper Dollar Pushers".

The paper dollar pushers make their living in a variety of ways, none of which create "REAL" wealth.(Lending,ownership of income producing enterprises, and consistantly winning on investment speculations). Investment speculations include the future pricing of many/most big time farm products.......I believe the pricing markets in farm products is totally regulated (ILLEGALLY FIXED) by the "paper dollar pushers" the same as most of the other commodities.

The department of Agriculture condones this price fixing and realizes that if farmers can't farm profitably they will quit farming and do something more profitable.......So the U.S. dept. of agriculture goes to congress and gets approval to use "TAX" payers money.....with the intent on keeping farm produced products below production costs.....And gives the farmers who qualify, under their terms, enough tax payer paper money to keep on farming.......But all you farmers, please remain at the lower economic level of society.

There are isolated exceptions and it sounds like you already have something in mind that would work for you.
After 20 years of very small farming (honey production) I have learned to """NOT""" give any information about my operation to anyone.......So far no court orders!

The newest problem is marketing your finished product[s], without "Big Brother Government" watching your every move.
Homeland Security has now infiltrated the dept of agriculture to the point of trying to find out everything and I mean everything about your farming operation.......So with this in mind, I would suggest keeping as "LOW" a profile as possible, if you decide you do indeed want to make some money from the 440 acres using some type of agriculture.

Again, I believe the "Digital Gold Currency Payment Systems" may offer some privacy under the right conditions.

My long term( and it may be very long term) optimism is based on the ""REBIRTH"" of the USA......and this re-birth would have to happen after severe hardships, similar to the 1930's great depression, have run their course.

Thanks For Reading.........beesting.

[Edit]

Rex Please -- HBM, 10:55:51 11/22/03 Sat

Rex

Please give my email address to Flinter

Thanks

HBM

Flinter's post:

@ HBM & a request re land -- Flinter, 07:10:23 11/22/03 Sat

Hello HBM.

Would you be willing to correspond on this issue?

If so, please tickle Rex.

Thanks,
flinter

[Edit]

@qwerty et al -- dotti, 10:17:58 11/22/03 Sat

Auspec, your reaction was the same as mine when I read that paragraph.

qwerty, I have found my own personal solution to the political and corporate swindles: apathy. I am interested in it, but will not delude myself by thinking that there is anything that I can "do" about it.

Actually, in a slightly more serious vein, I apply the Serenity Prayer. (Anybody who doesn't know the Serenity Pray, post such, and I will post it here.)

Why do you worry and fret and fume over something that you have absolutely no power over--and you know it? Is it something of a "conscientious objection"? You're a part of a huge herd and all the other sheeple are stampeding; You want to make them stop, but they won't--no way.

My view is just to step aside and let them go over the cliff. I will try to save family and loved ones--but you nor I can save the world. Sad, but true.

I do not intend to be offensive in this post. I respect your views as being pretty much correct. But. Things are not going to get better before they get much, much worse.

Don't wear yourself out!

My opinion, only.

dotti

[Edit]

auspec -- qwerty, 09:37:31 11/22/03 Sat

my outrage has always been over the entire big picture

there are just so many things

if you gave people a choice of two politicians

one supported cutting off their air supply

the other supported cutting off their water supply

people are so stupid that they would choose one over the other instead of looking at the larger picture

the politicians can entertain the citizens with "specialized" concerns or agendas

people aren't even aware that they are being played

It's like the politicians who are "concerned" about "parts" of the patriot act. A segment of the anti-patriot act people will stupidly support them. There will be others who will only oppose the patriot act when they personally become affected.

it will be played the same way with the FTAA when that eventually integrated into the US either whole or gradually ...

politicians and political parties can make believe they are concerned about this or that issue while simultaneously conducting numerous other assaults on their constituencies from a multitude of other directions

most people will support the politican while the politicans is kicking them in the ass

the one aspect privateer did not say was - only a small percentage of the population is even vaguely aware of the control of gold prices

but this is all due to compartmentalized thinking

People get outraged on SELECTIVE issues. For most, it is usually what the controlled media programs them to get outraged about.

politically, most people are dysfunctional

it's why the same political parties get supported

people support the same political status quo parties because they are intellectually lazy and stupid. they will even convince themselves that some status quo parties are anti-status quo

the term "political correctness" originated from the orwellian mindset. it allowed people to say they were anti-status quo and say they wanted change but at the same time support the status quo because deep down they either did not want change or were afraid of change

look across the world and one sees the same behavior patterns. people like robots continue voting the same way.

inspite of overwhelming evidence that the different parties are playing on the same side, their matrix programming tells them to imagine there is real opposition

people in america are programmed to say "we support democracy". During the cold war, this was common. The supposed objective was to bring "democracy" to the world. During all that time, mexico was a one party system. People blocked out these gross contradictions in their mind. The idea that the politicians were fighting to bring "democracy" to the world shoukd have been expelled".

People's ability to compartmentalize must have been designed and programmed into their souls or something

It is not whether the US will take on the general characteristics of a third world country but when

[Edit]

Kudos to ER/Privateer Snippet -- auspec, 08:35:24 11/22/03 Sat

The following snippet is borrowed under fair & educational use from the highly recommended Privateer {www.privateer.com}:

What has always bemused us is that the outrage over the manipulation of the Gold price is not accompainied by outrage over the manipulation of almost EVERY other aspect of financial and economic life. There is no equivalent outcry about legal tender laws, or Unconstitutional money, or fractional reserve banking, or interest rate manipulation, or blatant interference with both domestic and international trade, or income "redistribution" via taxation, or ponzi schemes masquerading as "social security", or any of the other manipulations whose sum is the present interventionist economic system based on fiat "money" under which the world has been suffering for many decades.

END

Cap'n Bill wouldn't be bemused here @ ER because we are all over each of these issues. Now THAT'S FAIR & BALANCED!!
Bill O'Reilly spoke in New Orleans and he wouldn't get near the gold issue..........claiming ignorance. What a gigantic windbag.

Speaking of windbags............do you think "Rush" was aptly named........?? Now, these guys are shills and total frauds.

[Edit]

@ HBM & a request re land -- Flinter, 07:10:23 11/22/03 Sat

Hello HBM.

Would you be willing to correspond on this issue?

If so, please tickle Rex.

Thanks,
flinter

[Edit]

@ SLATT @ET -- Flinter, 07:08:40 11/22/03 Sat

Alternative Agriculture:

SLATT: " Yes a few small operations are profitable..."

You are correct, generally. However, there are many more than "a few". Horizontal agr, like horizonal "employment" does not show up on BLS statistics , for the most part (or the USDA...although I respect their numbers more). Also, your view of "alternative" products, while generally accepted, is also too limited.

ET: If you look at the energy/fossil products picture of modern American Ag, you will see that it is extremely dependent upon cheap oil. It is cheap oil which allowed (what I call unsustainable agr) to evolve to its present state. As I have said, the end of cheap oil is the end of American agr. USA agr. will (return?) to something "sustainable".

What that "something(s)" will be will come out of what we today call "alternative" ag.

That said, I look forward to SLATT's answer to ET's question. If I may, could I add a question, SLATT?

Why would the rest of the world flood the US will products? (or continue to). In exchange for what?

ET, have you by chance read Wendell Berry or Gene Logsden? There are far bigger issues imbedded in this topic than just economics.

Best,
Flinter

[Edit]

Good Morning, volavka -- dotti, 06:03:57 11/22/03 Sat

Just wanted to say Good Morning. I'm headed to the studio. Two football games of interest for me today: Iron Bowl--I'm for Alabama--and Ole Miss. My son went to Ole Miss and I really like Eli--so I'm for Ole Miss on that one. LSU has looked so strong that I would almost hate to see them brought down by Ole Miss--but. I would be shocked to see Ole Miss beat LSU, so it should be good unless it's a rout.

There I go rambling again.

Take care.

dotti

[Edit]

Feedback -- volavka, 05:25:39 11/22/03 Sat

Would like some opinions on this property.
http://www.homestead.com/theclaimpost/PineCreek.html

[Edit]

number six -- qwerty, 21:34:12 11/21/03 Fri

you have some suggestions i will look into

as far as finding the option list in SA, i haven't had any luck yet ... any links

>unemployed

Congress chose not to do anything related to extending unemployment benefit and they went on recess today

they'll have to come back late january and do something

they should send the unemployed a christmas card saying "Have A Merry Christmas"

if people in congress were dastardly evil, they would keep the unemployed hanging financially by a thread to keep them worried and distracted by their financial situation so they wouldn't notice things like the FTAA and more patriot act enhancements

but we know our members in congress would never think like that

[Edit]

SLATT -- ET, 20:13:42 11/21/03 Fri

Hey SLATT – good to chat with you, hope all is well. You wrote:

“Food production in this country is at a crossroads that is not on the radar of the media or government. The competition is changing. Argentina will be flooding the US market with cheap grain and beef. Russia is entering the market too. Brazil and Canada will always be there. And China will be in a position to supply the US market with every ag (food) product other than meat within 10 years.

”It ain't your daddy's farming any more. Meanwhile the debt must be serviced.”

I live out here in farm country, and you’ve certainly hit the nail on the head. Today, farming in the US is at a crossroads.

What effect do you see the coming dollar decline as having on the farming scene? I would think that relatively, the cost of production in the US could actually be pretty low. Producers here suffer from an exaggerated currency value. As the dollar declines, do you think that farming will once again become a profitable enterprise? Should we all be buying farmland on the cheap over the next few years as overleveraged players sell at distressed prices?

[Edit]

Goldustorm -- auspec, 18:39:33 11/21/03 Fri

Now the Pied Piper decides to cry all the way to the Spitzer? What a putz. He wasn't born yesterday but it was pretty recent.

[Edit]

handfeedbite? :) -- number six, 18:05:17 11/21/03 Fri

Ok Q, sounds like you're the rare 100% suitable candidate for options then. And yes, I'm sure some of us around here have money out of our ears, and I'm sure some of us here are unemployed students who've nailed triples and quadruples this year, but have still gone days in a row without food, and who have also found "really cool shit" on the ground and in bins when no one was looking.

Anyhow, drooy options through an American exchange don't exist afaik. From memory, they do have them in SA, but whadda f'ing hassle! if you want the equivalent, then there's um maybe a combination of out-of-the-$ comex call options, plus maybe something like Novagold, who are superb, plus you could spread it out amongst juniors, maybe buy a good dog like this apll some of us around here like. It is literally a 10 man operation vs a 20,000 man operation like drooy, but I'm one drooy fan who could see apll going better %-wise, merely by virtue of being both bushleague and real at the right time. Although, contrary to that, drooy's "bigness" is real now... they will never go bankrupt now...imho .. gold is only going higher, plus they're sufficiently diversified with their recent excellent purchase up New Guinea way. And they do have mega -oz/mkt cap ratio, as you imagine the price going $500, $600, $1200 etc, like us guys can do. But there *are* other little dogs who do that angle even better than the mighty drooy.

You'd have to do some searching to get at those drd.jo'burg options, which I think do exist. Harmony options might actually exist on a USA exchange, and that co' is safer, bluerchip and has nearly all the leverage of droopy, so check out if USA options exist for them. When the rand was back on Earth, Harmony looked as pristine and godly as GG does now. better to buy a leveraged angel at a discount, than a super-leveraged sadcase, all else considered.

[Edit]

volavka -- qwerty, 17:39:27 11/21/03 Fri

gold call options expire monday

so gold shouldn't go up if cabal strong enough

but i can see gold going up after that

[Edit]

number six -- qwerty, 17:25:44 11/21/03 Fri

this isn't about short term timing

i would like to just find a way to lock in the price until i can get more fiat to take possession of them

so would not be buying for the strike price shit but for the longer term hold ... i'm staying away from timing the moves ... if i luck out fine but i don't care

... if gold stocks would stall for around 3 months or so then i would probably be able to buy them outright

some of you are probably loaded with fiat coming out of your ears and using it to keep the fire place burning

[Edit]

bwuh?? -- number six, 17:25:05 11/21/03 Fri

volavka, you bought a 75 year old greyhound for only $2000??? surely you could flip/trade it to a Guiness-book wannabee for many times that amount? Unless a taxidermist allredy got to it?? ? try to detect it, it's not too late...to whip it.... whip it good! nanananana.....

[Edit]

qwerty re droopy oppies -- number six, 16:56:41 11/21/03 Fri

there actually almost kinda IS a way to do it. Normally stocks trading in USA won't have attached derivitives unless they're over $5, and it's been a while for droopy in that regard.

But if my mammaries serve me correct, they do have options listed on the jo'burg exchange in Seth Effrica. I would imagine that they still do, although it's been a long time since I looked into it. I get hassled about drooy every time i visit my parents as it is! But you're on your own as to finding a broker, and the exchange, and the quotes etc... but I think they're out there.

There are probably easier ways to get such leverage.... are you sure about gold's timing, or what is it that's moving you???

[Edit]

money, JC, the governator.. -- number six, 16:42:24 11/21/03 Fri

It's truly ALL there if you look hard enough...

"""Homer: Bart, I'm not asking you to give blood for free. That would be crazy! You may not realize it now, but when you save a rich guy's life, he showers you with riches! Don't you know the story of Hercules and the Lion?

Bart: Is it a Bible story?

Homer: Yeah, probably. Anyway, once upon a time, there was a big, mean lion who got a thorn in his paw. All the villagers tried to pull it out, but nobody was strong enough, so they got Hercules and he used his mighty strength, and bingo! Anyway, the moral is, is that the lion was so happy, that he gave Hercules this big... thing... of riches!

Bart: How did a lion get riches?

Homer: It was the olden days!

Bart: Oh!
------------------

I'm sure there's a lesson in there for all of us. I just can't pretend to fully fathom exactly what our lord Homer might intend for us. Shalom & Boom Shanka... no six.

[Edit]

M O N D A Y O P T I O N S A L E R T -- Goldustorm, 14:47:05 11/21/03 Fri

Friday, November 21, 2003, 4:10:00 PM EST
Note to the Community
Author: Jim Sinclair -Excerpts:
".....If you agree, then do something about it! The New York Attorney General's office will have to act if they receive 250,000 complaints. The form for a commercial complaint to Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is available by clicking on this link. Please post this link to every gold chat room and gold site that you are aware of on the Internet.
If you support this contention, then join me in putting an end to it. Gold should trade in a market free of manipulation as should every other commodity....."

www.jsmineset.com excerpts posted with permission under Fair Use Clause of International Copyright Law

[Edit]

question -- qwerty, 13:26:16 11/21/03 Fri

is there a way to buy call options / LEAPS on DROOY

i looked on the CBOE and didn't find them

[Edit]

Gold and the Depression -- volavka, 12:44:17 11/21/03 Fri

Well options are thru, now starting sunday nite we will move much higher, well over 400.

The Depression can start now, bought a 1928 Whippet today in mint condition , $2,000. People are in deep trouble.

[Edit]

like this is a surprise -- qwerty, 12:21:35 11/21/03 Fri

===
Gen. Tommy Franks says that if the United States is hit with a weapon of mass destruction that inflicts large casualties, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government. Franks, who successfully led the U.S. military operation to liberate Iraq, expressed his worries in an extensive interview he gave to the men's lifestyle magazine Cigar Aficionado.
===

i guess he is talking about the FTAA

who wants to be here when that happens

[Edit]

also -- qwerty, 12:06:49 11/21/03 Fri

Tell J6P there is no fluoridation in the water. J6P will not want to have his children get cavities so won't move there

Tell J6P that the FDA doesn't provide any safety and protection. J6P will wonder who will protect them from all the foods and drugs.

[Edit]

ironhead -- qwerty, 11:55:36 11/21/03 Fri

==
Vermont should secede from the United States and become a republic. He's founded a political movement, the Second Vermont Republic, to do just that, and now he's published his book on the subject: 'The Vermont Manifesto.
==

this is the type of thinking i like to hear

bringing back the republic form of government

there needs to be a critical mass of freedom loving people to outnumber Joe6Pack that populate this country in overwhelming numbers and stamping out the Constitution again

just think ... vermont and new hampshire could eventually form a new republic ... soon a few more states secede and join ...

Make sure there are no public schools. That way when Joe6Pack wonders about moving there, they will be clueless on how to educate their children so will not go there

Make sure there is no medical licensing board and no vaccination requirements. That way Joe6Pack will wonder how they will know whether to trust medical people in the state so be too scared to come there.

Make sure anyone can carry a gun. Put signs leading up to the states saying "We All Carry Guns So Don't Mess With Us". He'll think twice about coming into a state where there are "gun crazy" people.

Also put up a sign saying "No Safety and Protection By Homeland Security Allowed". This will make J6P wonder how they can live in a state and be protected from terrorism.

if we can secure a patch of land for freedom loving people then i would move there. We could use J6P like immigrants were used for a long time - To Pick Lettuce or something. J6P is pretty use to it.

[Edit]

hAug - Escape To..... Vermont? -- IronHead, 09:49:41 11/21/03 Fri

Hi Turbo!

Great to see the ole faces - good to know we've not [all] been railroaded to the gulag......yet.

Apparently, some others share the need for re-constituting a republic, to effect your " escape from the world's most powerful terrorist organization - the US govt."

Fair use doctrines applicable, as necessary.
snip:

Former professor turns secesh
Barre Montpelier Times-Argus

"Nothing about Thomas Naylor seems radical -- except, of course, his politics. Naylor is soft-spoken and polite. A former university professor, he exhibits obvious intelligence. He's also kind, a proud father and, well, rather likable. But Naylor insists he's serious when he says Vermont should secede from the United States and become a republic. He's founded a political movement, the Second Vermont Republic, to do just that, and now he's published his book on the subject: 'The Vermont Manifesto.'" (11/16/03)

http://timesargus.com/Regional_News/Story/74657.html

Zontally,
I-Head

[Edit]

Redux @hAug, flinter, ALL -- journeyman, 09:37:34 11/21/03 Fri

Hi again hAug, ALL!

hAug, that article you linked from Mises.org, Confiscatory Deflation, is excellent. It gives us all "insider" info on what we can probably expect. Except here in uSA, nearly everyone has a credit card or checking, so theoretically the outcome might be different. Interested in any speculation anyone might offer on how/why that may be the case.

But the guidance here is that both in Russia (where they pulled a similar scam) and Argentina, the value of the money decreased (and of course prices increased.)

SO if you're thinking about what to do with your buying power to preserve it in what many of us think is coming, do you want to store it in dollars, pounds stirling, French franks?

Or in something else?

Regards,
j.

[Edit]

Flinter -- Sojourner, 09:00:04 11/21/03 Fri

I am sure that you wish for the discussion to end concerning your proposed property buy. But may I offer 2 of my RE experiences?

1. On one property I purchased (and kept for 10 years), the property value went down as the interest rate went down. I had put down a 20% down payment, when the interest rate started down, my appraisal went down. When I sold it, I had to take a sale of "take over the mortgage payments". The appraisal value was less than the mortgage. So, I lost my equity and down payment.

2. I had some rural farmland - no buildings. The property tax on unoccupied property in Fla is quite high. Fla also requires fire protection insurance (not too expensive) but on unoccupied property, is higher. The property did not have the advantage of your proximity. Mine was about 35 miles from my home. I purchased it for future probabilities. I paid 4 times a year to have it bush hogged and after 6 years, realized it was costing me a lot of $$$$. However, it was much smaller than yours and the small profit I did make from it was it had many pecan trees on it and I made a little on the pecans. So, I sold it for only $500 more than I paid for it, which did not cover what I had spent on it.

So, my concerns are property taxes, insurance and upkeep. But if you subdivide and sell your parcels, I can foresee a profit for you.

Lots of luck,
Sojo

[Edit]

gold spikes up and down -- qwerty, 08:58:46 11/21/03 Fri

bulls and bears are battling

great time if one is buying a boat full of gold

the bears will subsidize the purchases

if i had billions, the last couple weeks would be great for loading up on bullion

[Edit]

Flinter @ 21:07:16 11/20/03 Thu -- HBM, 08:37:23 11/21/03 Fri

Hey flinter

Concerning rising interest rates, you said and asked:

They will rise, no question (at least in my mind). Do you not hedge this by locking in a fixed rate at...say 6%?

My response:

I was referring to a situation in the early 80’s when I had my new home (in the hills) financed through a local bank. The only way I could get a loan on that particular property at the time was through the local bank. The local bank was very conservative and only made real estate loans on demand. The loan would be amortized over 20 or 25 year period (monthly payment-wise) but would be ballooned at the end of say three or five years forcing a re-writing of the loan periodically. The new loan would of course carry the prevailing rates at the time of the re-write.

That was not the worst part of the deal. The loan was not a conventional real estate loan in any sense of the word, for it was a true demand note. The Bank could demand payment of the loan in full at any time. Of course they never did nor never intended to do that. They just kept the option open for re-writing the loan whenever they chose should the interest rates rise to the disadvantage of the bank.

As memory serves me the note began in late 1980 at a rate of 12%. After a few re-writes the loan actually got as high as 18.5%. That may sound horrible and it was but the prime rate actually got to around 21.5% before it was all over. It was a very painful experience, one which I will never again subject myself to.

Of course, times have changed and it may be that conventional loans can easily be obtained for the particular type of real estate I bought. It was stupid of me to go with a demand note. I was fairly young and “indestructible” at the time. Now I am older and quite "vulnerable". We are in the back woods. You probably have never seen a situation where a creditworthy borrower buying property at a very reasonable price could not obtain a real estate loan other than on demand.

If I were a small banker I would write only those kinds of loans to protect myself today. History is repeating. Small banks would be foolish to lend out long-term money with short-term funds made available to them. I quit borrowing and am out of the loop. I have know idea as to how the business is done today locally.

I was only saying just in case, such a situation existed that two problems could be created by your lender. One would be the trap of a demand note. The other would be the trap of cross-collateralization.

You are absolutely correct in that having a long-term note (conventional) with a fixed rate over the entire duration of the loan is the way to protect yourself from rising interest rates.

One more paranoid note:

I have long believed that the government would go any lengths to save the banks. I expect that a hyper-inflation scenario would be tackled in the following way:

Executive Order # 52109 “Effective 30 days from the date of this order all bank loan interest rates will be indexed to adjust in accordance with future changes in the Consumer Price Index. The adjustment for each 30 day period will be based upon the CPI change calculated as of the end of the prior 90 days prior. To help ease the burden the borrower, monthly payments will not be changed. The principle portion of each loan payment will be reduced or increased by the change in the periodic interest charge on each loan. Should the amount of the periodic interest charge exceed the amount of the monthly payment the interest charge in excess of the monthly payment will be added to the principle.

HBM

[Edit]

inflation & defaltion -- qwerty, 08:15:18 11/21/03 Fri

here is what i see

monetary supply wise, there has been massive inflation

this is reflected in the bubbles of real estate, stocks, bonds and other paper instruments

so there will be a coming DEFLATION in those bubbles

as far as day to day survival, there is INFLATION

on a practical level, there is BOTH coming in a big way

for the average american, most who have 2 months of savings at most, they will focus on inflation after their assets have deflated since they will be struggling just to survive the coming storm

the debate of whether we have inflation or deflation is plain rediculous ... it's just a debate to confuse people

[Edit]

j-man -- hAug, 08:04:51 11/21/03 Fri

Yes, you could argue about a lot of things. But you asked about inflation and deflation and that's what I responded to, even though I knew that you knew the answer to the question you posed (again).

And the same thing is in progress in the US right now, but so far on a slower pace. As the exchange value of the dollar falls, growth in the money supply is slowing reflecting lessening demand for the currency, and the Fed needs that demand in order to inflate. If the dollar trend continues, then growth in the money supply will necessarily go negative.

Done deal, baby. Only a matter of time.

If the dollar is nearing an important intermediate term low and the euro and gold are nearing an important intermediate term high, then it might be awhile down the road yet before the US has to worry about outright deflation. Obviously, the Fed is concerned. They've discussed outlawing the 'hoarding' of currency, they were frightened to even USE the 'D' word (preferring instead to say "a substantial fall in inflation"), and Greenie is blame-shifting ahead of time just in case a new trade war develops and suddenly sucks the liquidity out of the markets.

hAug

[Edit]

A look at those charts @hAug, ALL -- journeyman, 07:22:47 11/21/03 Fri

Hi hAug, ALL!

Well, here's a chart of the exchange rate value of the $, the ruble & the Argentine peso (vs. gold) over the period in question:

Now you could argue that despite the fact the FX value of both the peso and ruble dropped significantly vs. both dollar and gold, their internal values (i.e. within the country's borders) rose.

Or you could conclude that somehow ;> the supply of buying power embodied in the concept "ruble" and "peso" was somehow increased enough to, by supply and demand, reduce the value of both.

Your choice.

Regards,
j.

[Edit]

j-manster -- hAug, 06:44:43 11/21/03 Fri

When referring to inflation and deflation, I'm talking about inflation and deflation, i.e. expansion and contraction of the money supply. It's all about liquidity. I've posted that so many times in our discussions that I guess I thought it was no longer necessary.

Here's an article on Argentina's deflation:

sis boom bah

One doesn't really need a chart such as the one in this article to know that when the monetary system collapses, capital flees the country, banks shut down, and people line up for days to get their cash that doesn't exist, that the money supply has basically contracted to being the physical cash supply plus whatever other tangible form of currency is available. And when the money supply was basically all credit that leaves a huge vacuum.

Almost the exact same thing happened in Russia just a few years earlier.

We've discussed all this ad nauseum before so I don't have an interest in taking it up any more. The Deflation ... Done Deal post on Forum 2 sums it up from my standpoint.

A look at the charts shows that if the dollar continues to fall, then outright deflation in the US is a given as it logically should be, contrary to conventional wisdom.

hAug

[Edit]

Deflation? Which one? @hAug, flinter, ALL -- journeyman, 05:41:57 11/21/03 Fri

Hi hAug, flinter!

MONETARY deflation in Argentina, I'm not sure about. But I was there during the 1998 fiat crisis in Russia.

No deflation of the ruble - - - between Aug. & Nov. it depreciated to 1/3 its former value against the dollar.

True, the ECONOMY deflated - - - no one could afford the prices ;>. So when you speak of deflation, you've got to specify what it is that you think is going to deflate!!

You can view all the "deflations" or "inflations" of currencies here:

Pacific Exchange Rate Service (http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html)

Check me on the ruble, and see what happened to the Argentine peso - - -

Let me know.

Regards,
j.

[Edit]

@Flinter -- dotti, 05:34:17 11/21/03 Fri

I had to stop reading...just too much today. I have to get to the studio, but I wanted to post just one more "caution".

Flinter: "Interest rates: They will rise, no question (at least in my mind). Do you not hedge this by locking in a fixed rate at...say 6%?"

You have one side of the equation. Do not forget, however, that others in your community may not be able to hold on to their land. If it comes on the market, it could devalue your land. However, I do not think this is what you are looking at. I think that by locking in a 6% rate, you would not get thrown off of your property--and the value of surrounding property, while important in one sense, is less important in a Great Depression type scenario.

I love your idea of choosing your neighbors. There was a S/D in Atlanta that was spotlighted in the paper because it was developed by 5 families who had been childhood friends. Their kids played together on a cul-de-sac. I just loved the idea. You go, guy!

Rushin' to the studio...

dotti

[Edit]

Flinter -- SLATT, 00:00:18 11/21/03 Fri

SLATT you said: " All agriculture (yes ALL) is driven by economies of scale ". I would amend this to all "vertical" agriculture. But, then again, the vertical is what predominately drives land ($)prices....which was my question. BUT, when you look at profits per acre for instance...it is the alternative Agr that is making money, not the large (economies of scale) operators. Without the subsidies...? On a sustainability (and I believe that is the key word) basis...large is bad, and always has been. "Economies of scale" on a sustainable basis in Agr favors smaller. It can work both ways. Funny how the matrix has impacted & distorted everything in such similar ways. We are at a point where "get bigger or get out" is breaking down.

Yes a few small operations are profitable. Mainly organic operations relying upon extremely high prices paid for the produce. When times get hard the market for over priced produce will dwindle. The price will always be set by the largest producers, who will increasingly be from overseas. (Especially China.) Food production in this country is at a crossroads that is not on the radar of the media or government. The competition is changing. Argentina will be flooding the US market with cheap grain and beef. Russia is entering the market too. Brazil and Canada will always be there. And China will be in a position to supply the US market with every ag (food) product other than meat within 10 years.

It ain't your daddy's farming any more. Meanwhile the debt must be serviced.

If secure water is a concern you should plan accordingly if considering real estate sales. Very easy to degrade an aquifer. You should also get an analysis of the well or wells on the property (chem analysis and draw down) since well water is an expensive commodity. Good luck!

[Edit]

Current POG, POS, POP & U$D Live Price -- CHARTs, 23:25:37 11/20/03 Thu

[Edit]

hAug, Flinter -- qwerty, 22:43:55 11/20/03 Thu

to add to what hAug says

also under the patriot act

if you donate to something like "Fund To Help The Retarded Children"

and it is later found to be put on a terrorist organization watch list

your property can be confiscated on those grounds

if they find drugs on it, they can seize and auction it off

if there is oil on it ... expect an invasion

otherwise they can just take it with no reason

i'd buy some gold coins and bury them in a secret place just as a financial insurance policy

[Edit]

FTAA misc -- qwerty, 22:29:50 11/20/03 Thu

>GAME of pretending they're doing something

this articulates succinctly what I observe the politicians doing

for americans, it's difficult to comprehend

[Edit]

flinter - strategy -- hAug, 22:18:16 11/20/03 Thu

> 2. Please name me in history a total fiat monetary system that ended in deflation? I know you will say Japan, but that game is still in progress and is linked to the dollar game. <

Argentina and Russia along with a few others just in the last few years. Deflation of fiat monetary systems is already a proven fact. It just hasn't been proven yet that the US dollar/financial system will suffer the same fate during this deflation cycle.

I don't have an opinion about the future value of your potential land purchase but an additional consideration might be the possibility that you would be forced to move due to environmental hazards resulting from, say, a major terrorist event or for other reasons such as the need to move where the jobs are (as in elsewhere in the world) or to escape from the world's most powerful terrorist organization - the US govt. Under those kinds of circumstances, would holding a (presumably) sizeable chunk of your financial worth in a rather illiquid investment tie your hands, er, feet ?

The foundation of my own plan is based on liquidity and mobility, though I now consider it less likely that the US will suffer an Argentina-style deflation and more likely to endure a Japan-style deflation. Of course, fundamentally the Argentina scenario makes more sense.

The Elliott Wrongway-vers believe that a major crash-like decline in the stock market is just getting underway now. Who knows ... they might get one right.

hAug

[Edit]

FTAA - another weapon of mass destruction -- qwerty, 22:15:58 11/20/03 Thu

the FTAA is another WMD aimed at america by the supposedly elected US politicians

I remember reading it some years back and I have never seen anything so blatant

the FTAA will destroy the sovereignty of the US and hand it over to the multi-nationals

add china, foreign immigration and work visas ...

and the result will in a global plantation

as long as US citizens continue to bend over

and don't boot out ALL the politicians in mass or not support them

americans in general will get what they deserve

we are way pass the excuse of "I just didn't know"

the power is in the ciizenry. the FTAA can't be enforced without the complicity of J6P

===
Hey Buddy, Can You Spare
a Dime - A Glass Of Water?
By Judith Moriarty
NoahsHouse@adelphia.net
11-20-3

Free Trade of the Americas Talks going on in Miami--many protestors; but for the most part the majority of Americans haven't got a clue as to what's ado or how these talks will drastically alter and affect their lives in job security and environmental impacts. The hepatitis outbreak in Pennsylvania, due to imported scallions contaminated. is but one small example. In fact most Americans have no idea that approximately 70% of our fruits and vegtables are now imported.

In the meantime we are subjected to hours of debate on gay marriages, Michael Jackson's newest perversions, the ongoing Laci Peterson trial, Rush Limbaugh and his dope taking Epiphany (others have their Epiphany's in jail), a sports stars dilemma in getting those needed points for his basketball team between hearings on the accusations of rape, and a brief look at B&B doing their thing in England, spending millions upon millions of the taxpayers monies. One would think with half the police force of Europe out. it's little wonder that can announce with unabashed certitude, that they are ready "To face terrorism head on". Hey, with five million people guarding you or whatever the insane number, I too say "Bring'em on-I'm ready".

Why would we have any informative debate or discussion on the two new global commerical agreements of unprecedented scope and power that are currently being negotiated in Florida? These agreements, the World Trade Organization's General Agreement on Trade and Services (GATS) and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) are most assuredly going to result in the "privatization and deregulation" of many essential services. All politics is local--lest we forget. Your water-waste-electric-local government, is all part of this malignant scheme to bring about our new Global Plantation.

Water. Well wouldn't you know at this very moment a foreign entity is quietly and with not much fanfare or hello, politcal attentions, making inroads in the U.S. to privatize the North East's water. Yes--folks while we were hanging on the edge of our seats with the "if the glove don't fit you must aquit" murder debacle of a young mother and the pizza delivery with the works, in the saga of the intern at the White House, who went above and beyond her duties in the Oral Office, the big money boys have been busy. They have now decided along with the world's timber-minerals-gas-oil-etc. that the water now belongs to them. Gulp.

There will be loss of local government and rate payer control; If the U.S. (that's why people are protesting in Miami) commits water under the WTO GATS and FTAA talks. Municipalities would loose the ability to decide for themselves how to provide water services. The U.S. would be prohibited from maintaining public service "monopolies" or exclusive suppliers of the service on the basis of a regional subdivision or on the basis of the entire territory of a government. This provision would require U.S. state and local federal governments to give private, for profit water companies "access" to the "market" of our more than 60,000 U.S. municipal water service providers. What's going on in your community behind closed doors?
If the U.S. commits (that's why people are demonstrating) water services unded proposed GATS and FTAA rules any federal, state or local regulation governing water services, such as those designed to protect water quality, universal access, as well as Public Utility Commission rulings, could be challenged as "barriers to trade". A government would have to demonstrate that the policy was necessary and that no other less trade-restrictive measure could be taken to accomplish the same objective in order to maintain it. This simply means kiss your water protections goodbye--it's now corporate water-you die you die. They're drinking crystal clear bottled artisan well water.

Here in our area, to date, politicians are asleep at the wheel-bar-or salivating over those promises of campaign contributions? That or raptured? In any event, no word from them on educating the public as to this dastardly intrigue. Privatization is a one-way street. If a municipality decides to experiment {that's the song and dance being given here in NH} with privatizing water services by selling {piecemeal--insidiously-} its operation to a foreign corporation {in NH, the Kelda Group of the UK}, it is extremely difficult to bring the utility back under public control. For ex: if a municipality is later displeased-feels bilked-with a private company's performance and wants to take back its water supply {the empty promises given}, it not only must compensate the company under U.S. law, but the U.S. government must also compensate all potentially affected trading partners for their corporations lost business opportunities. This double whamy is geared towards "locking in" privatizaion, and preventing the water take-backs which have occurred in many U.S. cities which were taken down the usual primrose path of empty promises and then bilked. Once you're in you'ring of hands, it's not fair, the water's laden with bacteria, shut-off notices, doubling-tripling of rates, no improvements to infra-structure. When, "aha-yawn-slurp-I'll toast to that," you've got billions, its the usual mantra of "Take us to court". Now,with most of America on the ropes, and rural America not having a pot to piss in, guess who holds all the cards? The Wal-Mart greeter, the barber, the laborer, the bagger at grocery store, the janitor, the mechanic etc. will be paying for this newest heist-big time. It is inexcusable and treasonous {archaic word} that those in representative positions are not educating-informing and defending citizens RIGHT to water. One doesn't have water one dies. Duh. "Water water everywhere and all the boards did shrink"

Corporations; the disgusting-depraved-soulless-malignant hucksters; can sue governments for cash damages. "Bulletin-Monica kept proof of service job on blue dress"---see how we've missed all this privatization-boring. take over America by treaty stuff? The FTAA {Free Trade Area of the Americas}, member nations can sue governments directly for cash compensation in secret, closed-door trade tribunals operating under the auspices of the United Nations and the World Bank for future lost profits if a city (like Claremont-NH) decides to reverse a privatization. A subsidiary of Bechtel (pigs now privatizing Iraqi water) is suing the city of Cochabamba, Bolivia for $25million because the city took back its water system in response to citizen's outcries of rate hikes of 400%! Talk about the poorest of the poor!
Worried over that job and not having a guaranteed income? Better be. Proposals for a special "GATS Visa" would allow U.S. (Benedict Arnold ) companies to bring in workers from abroad to perform contracts in any service sector. This would undermine the service sector wages/unions, and create a two-tier system of services employment based on the exploitation of imported service workers. This is already happening big time-all over the U.S. The U.S.-Chile Free Trade Agreement, includes a provision allowing a special visa for any Chilian citizen with a college degree the right to work in the U.S. Except any politicans cradle to grave job.

These provisions eviscerate existing requirements that U.S. corporations must first demonstrate (through lying-i.e.computer industry-teachers-nurses) that there is a shortage of domestic workers in an industry and that foreign workers are not being brought in to break a strike before special work visas can be issued for foreign service workers. See how ridiculous all this scanning-searching-triplicate ID-take off your shoes BS is ? Terrorism? Hell-anybody and his brother can saunter right in and kick any American out of their job--which is happening. These-searches-roadblocks-duct tape-coded fear days-the bogy man's gonna get you crap is about control. Period.

Ever check out all the foreign workers in fast food restaurants on the Jersey Turnpike/elsewhere? I did on a trip to some seminar. Something struck me odd as I looked around at a Roy Rodgers Restaurant. All the help was foreign---but not local Spanish. Young people-beautiful in their exotic features. I went up to one young girl (about 18) filling the salad bar and asked where she was from? She seemed frightened that I even spoke to her, shaking her head saying, "No English-no English". Then I put my hand on my chest and said "Me American" and then pointed to her...she smiled and put her hand on her chest and said, "Me Ecuador". But that's what's happening. Contractors going to this countries promising these kids the usual yada of golden streets, and then putting up in group homes and bussed to jobs like this. Check it out-next time your on the road. What's a kid like this going to do if they want to go home? I could bet you dollars to donuts that they don't have any passports in their possession or money to return if they wanted to. This is more than the exploitation of Americans---its sickening servitude for insatiable greed. We're all; Bolivian-Ecuadorian-Mexican-etc., being taken for a ride, and meantime Corporate-Pig- America, keeps the focus on filthy immigrants taking American jobs. No, it's the filthy corporations, enslaving naive peoples of the whole world. But hey, if an entity is without a soul anything goes.
Under GATS or FTAA foreign service workers could be paid at or below (it's below believe me ) the minimum wage of the country in which they're working. This undercuts wages for all workers in the service sector and locks foreign workers in low wage endless slave hours. But then the name of the GAME here is to level the globe---and oops, that means no more middle class. Just "da maser's and da slaves." Here we go again. Just a bigger plantation and the slaves now the poor of all lands.

Got a problem- Unsafe working conditions? Piss-ant wages? Eighty hour weeks? Tough. Open your mouth and you're back in the gutters of Calcutta etc-under a bridge in America. Any safety or regulations would be seen as "barriers to trade", and challenged. This includes worker health and safety laws worked so hard to aquire over the past decades. The Tribunal will rule. Not elected and unknown. Local-state and federal policies that are successfully challenged as violating WTO or proposed FTAA rules must be changed OR the U.S. government would be forced to pay MILLIONS in trade sanctions.

In ending--I don't give a fat rat's ass about Michael Jackson's "Never Never Land" and the perversions going on. We've got our own "Never-Never Land" out here, with the our dismantling this country piece by piece while those dunderheads in Foggy Bottom make a big ta do over filibustering over...no, not jobs, not people dying with no medical care/medicines, not the billions upon billions for blowing up and then building, and then blowing up again Iraq; and calling it Liberation-Freedom or whatever. No, nothing important but the GAME of pretending they're doing something. Meanwhile the "herd" as the elitists refer to mankind (they see themselves removed) are about culling the herd and getting their Plantation in order. Brother can ya spare a dime--a glass of water?

===

[Edit]

@ HBM -- Flinter, 21:53:36 11/20/03 Thu

Just so you know, HBM.

I have printed out your excellent analysis and pasted it to the wall.

Oh, and the answers to your 4 questions are:
No
No
No
Yes (possible but not likely)

And your "hedging" suggestions are understood.

Oh, we will likely be partitioning some of the new land (should this proceed) and re-selling it. The points being to retain the most adjacent land which best supports our business plan AND to be able to CHOOSE any new neighbors and how they utilize that land.

Neighbors are important.

With a deep bow,
Flinter

[Edit]

@ beesting @ qwerty -- Flinter, 21:29:16 11/20/03 Thu

Boy, I've kicked up a storm, eh?

I just missed your post, Mr. Beesing & Mr. Qwerty.

Beesting, you said: "However I am not sure this is what you had in mind when you asked the question......I think this is what you really meant:""Under what conditions would you forsee a """DOLLAR"""DECLINE in the value of this sort of rural/farmland acreage?""

You are quit right, my friend.

And you said "Simple answer: A region wide "Great" depression!"

Let me ask a couple questions:

1. Is not a hyper-inflation a depression"? Why do you correlate depression ONLY to deflation?

2. Please name me in history a total fiat monetary system that ended in deflation? I know you will say Japan, but that game is still in progress and is linked to the dollar game.

And you said: "One more thought(but not meant to discourage)developing or re-developing income producing land can be very expensive and time consuming"

Discourage away, sir beesting. That's what I asked for. The cropland has been in production (rented), the buildings have sat empty for one year. The pastures & woodlands have benefited from laying idle for the past year.

Qwerty: I agree with your 20:19:34, with the exception of the "hard work". I consider it hard play...and healthy play at that. But that's personal preference, I guess.

Best,
Flinter

[Edit]

@ All && land -- flinter, 21:07:16 11/20/03 Thu

Thanks for the responses all! Most interesting indeed (I liked volavka's "recreational" idea...smile).

Were I to have tried to answer my own question, I would have raised the following issues:

Question: What could cause rural/ag land to depreciate (in dollars)?

1. Rising Interest rates..as with all real estate.
2. Rising Oil Prices...would greatly increase farmer cost...which, like rising interest rates, would put farmers out of business...and land on the market.
note: (energy input into "established" feedstocks (corn, soybeans, etc.) is 3 times the output. And that is ANIMAL feedstocks...not human consumed products. Vertical Ag. is totally dependent upon cheap oil...when it ends, that game ends with it.
3. An end to gvt. support programs...or the inflation away of the value of those supports (already underway).

In rebuttal of these same points I would offer:

1. Rising Commodity Prices will change "the formula".
2. re-patrization of dollars (if you were a foreigner and you wanted something of real value from "America"...what would you want?)
3. Far from the urban areas being where "opportunity" lays, it could well become a "killing zone". Safety, I would say, lies in a rural area of small landowners, where real communities still exist. (Trurl: I suggest that the movement of people from third world rural areas to urban areas was because of the "strong dollar" and the resulting rape of those countries. Fiat draws all toward the source. Add to this totalitarian third world gvt. policies.)
4. Repeat 3 above but with a focus on quality of life...IF you and your community can produce the basics and become self reliant (water, food, heat, housing, safety). Let me ask this, where there is not "community" is there really a good Quality of life?

5. This forum has discussed investing in the ultimate resource...clean water. I ask, how does one accomplish this if not by owning the Source of this resource? (yes dotti...I didn't mention it but the land (we already own) includes a farm pond.) I included a description of the water resoruces specifically because of this issue.

I could likely think of more, but will halt at that.

Considering my initial 3 points (those that could cause the decline), If you could offset or hedge against these items (or better yet, use them to your advantage) how would this change the view?

1. Interest rates: They will rise, no question (at least in my mind). Do you not hedge this by locking in a fixed rate at...say 6%?

2. re-patriatization of dollars, another term for inflation or in my opinion hyperinflation. Do you not want to own the ultimate hard asset...or as IH says, have long term rental agreement on it (I agree, you do not really "own" the source of life....land). You, me, everyone is dependent upon IT!

3. Energy: If one could produce a business plan for a farm that would actually BENEFIT from rising oil prices, this danger point reverses. I.E. that plan would consider rising oil prices a success factor. I have such a plan.

HBM rest assured, I understand your recommendations. Interestingly, the land in question IS cheaper now than it was during the 80's peak. An anomaly perhaps?

SLATT you said: " All agriculture (yes ALL) is driven by economies of scale ". I would amend this to all "vertical" agriculture. But, then again, the vertical is what predominately drives land ($)prices....which was my question. BUT, when you look at profits per acre for instance...it is the alternative Agr that is making money, not the large (economies of scale) operators. Without the subsidies...? On a sustainability (and I believe that is the key word) basis...large is bad, and always has been. "Economies of scale" on a sustainable basis in Agr favors smaller. It can work both ways. Funny how the matrix has impacted & distorted everything in such similar ways. We are at a point where "get bigger or get out" is breaking down.

Qwerty...good suggestions. But as this time we do not want any involvement with the RE industry.

All: We realize that you cannot know our background, business plan, lifestyle choices, etc. That is why we chose not to pose that type of question. The debt issue is our main concern...and thus land prices. For instance...we could "sit tight" and hope to buy this property at a later date..."after the crash" so to speak. But we have this feeling that there will not be such a crash (ala Real Estate), and quit likely it could go the other way entirely... out of our reach.

It has been most enlightening and helpful to hear your responses. Please accept out thanks! The discussion has been wonderful.

Flinter

[Edit]

Hi Flinter.....A different type of answer??? -- beesting, 20:40:42 11/20/03 Thu

Your Question:
""Under what conditions would you forsee a DECLINE in the value of this sort of rural/farmland
acreage?""

Answer:
It sounds like the land itself is laying dormant right now.(not being used to produce any income at all.)
So the value of the land itself would only lose value if the trees, pastures, and buildings burned down(and you had no fire insurance) or if your water dried up or was un-usable for some reason.

However I am not sure this is what you had in mind when you asked the question......I think this is what you really meant:""Under what conditions would you forsee a """DOLLAR"""DECLINE in the value of this sort of rural/farmland acreage?""

Simple answer: A region wide "Great" depression!

One more thought(but not meant to discourage)developing or re-developing income producing land can be very expensive and time consuming.

This is the part of your message that worries me:
(Snip)"And yes...we will be borrowing."(Unsnip)

I think HBM has covered this worry quite well.

The Best Of Luck With Whatever You Decide To Do.......Keep Us Informed, Please..........beesting.

[Edit]

Trurl -- qwerty, 20:19:34 11/20/03 Thu

isn't it really the young people who migrate looking for more upper middle class jobs plus wanting to get away from the isolation

plus life is much harder on a farm - one does real work

if a farmer is experiencing a dustbowl, i could understand them starving

during the earlier decades, the govt hung out some loans to the farmers ... they bit and were put out of business ... US govt has assisted the larger entities in putting the small farmers out of business ... inspite of it, the farm community still supports corrupt and crooked politicians

in the western states, what would motivate a young person to stay around a place that has a few tumbleweeds ... being young and growing up in desolation has its major drawbacks

my father was a machinist ( use to own a machine shop with his brothers also ) and he would tell us about people who got their fingers and hands cut off or who fell into machines ... really motivated us to stay away from machines ... he would cynically say ... what you really want is a job where you can sit on your fat ass and push a pencil ...

if one observes the production chain, the ones actually producing can receive close to shit while the middlemen who don't toil get more of the profit

look at tax cuts ... they maintain the taxes on income where people work hard for their money but cut them on dividends where the recipient does nothing ... the working guy gets the shaft while the people who trade paper get the wealth

[Edit]

Mr. V -- $hifty, 19:47:23 11/20/03 Thu

You got Mail

$hifty

[Edit]

Flinter-san - Land Rental -- IronHead, 19:30:40 11/20/03 Thu

Hiya Dr. Freetoliveon!

Good Question: "Under what conditions would you forsee a DECLINE in the value of this sort of rural/farmland acreage?"

Although not able to express with such adroit accumen, as others have, with excellent ideas offered, pertaining to cross linked scenarios regarding default; I have to agree wholeheartedly in particular with HBM's analysis, from an accounting standpoint.

To paraphrase an ole quip regarding the trade {and you know my opinion, that ALL people inhabiting this green pasture, are in some way trading time and energy for something of perceived value} - that "All trade decisions are wrong, UNTIL the market proves you right."

In simple IH translation - Have a dream, make a plan, execute your decisions to the best of your ability.....BUT/HOWEVER and MOST importantly, realize the possibility [beforehand] that you have choosen the wrong monkey, and have therefore hedged/covered/protected yourself or limited your overall risk factor by some means of escape/transfer/liquidation/fraud/deceit or general skulldudgery, in effort to keep the wolf from raping and pillaging your time and efforts. [just kidding about the last 3 evils mentioned]

I know, you know well, about the ultimate hedge against the machinations of the papaer mavens; and that your excellent question is in search of that one remote obtuse improbability, which might usher into your hovel, the toothed fang and claw of depressionary forces.

Me thinks the ultimate VALUE of good tillable land with water, is beyond the value of virtually any other inanimate thing - {that land of yours is definetely a living breathing entity, ne?}
Value always has its price, and that value will most likely be priced in what shall become well known and accepted above most other symbols of wealth - any guesses?

Tis sure your hedge is already well overgrown with lushness; so take the following ethereal dribblings with big grains of hazelnut shells.

Value cannot decline, more than what our {temporary} perception of determined value is.

Price is only a momentary illusion which will change like winds through the trees.

As other's perceptions about value change, so will the price of the land, or anything for that matter; and if at some point in time, you find your values change drastically and the price either does or does not meet your expectations, then you will sell for a profitable price, a no gainer, or maybe even just simply walk away from the land, to another place.

Ultimately......we never really 'own' it, do we?

Go for it, I might need to become a share-cropper one day, when I have to walk away from the land I'm now renting!
{but only if you're a zontal farmer.....no ADM petrochem b/s!!}

Take care, and put a log on the fire for me!!
I-Head

[Edit]

Flinter -- some comments -- Trurl, 18:07:49 11/20/03 Thu

HBM really covered the bases.

But, just imagine what it would mean if the US became a third world nation. "Everybody" young would migrate to the city because that's were the job market would be. People left in the country can starve or fend for themselves -- based on the percentage game a government can usually ignore them. I know this second hand from inlaws from rural Mexico...

Consider also the post colonial history of Africa or China -- rural people almost starve, or go to the overcrowded cities because they perceive that as their best option.

This could tend to lower the perceived value of rural real estate -- IF YOU HAD TO LIQUIDATE. But being a gold forum, we all know a thing or two about perceived value, right?

Me, I wouldn't live anywhere else. Actually, I live in big timber country. Here they always scare us by telling the story of the virgin forest in Russia that is larger than the continental US. But I sleep well at night.

Forgive me if I go on a mini-rant about timber-- its got compounding on compounding -- its a resource, so it should go up in price based on inflation if nothing else. It's also growing, so there's more of it each year. And if you have a day job, it doesn't matter if you don't tend to it much and skip a year -- or a decade...

[Edit]

tax liens to riches -- skys39, 18:06:48 11/20/03 Thu

Doti , your...'Just yesterday, my eldest brother flattered me by asking me what I would invest in, other than gold.'

a 'secret'...

look into 'tax lien certificates', good ones = 18%+ YOY on up to 50%!

this will be very very lucrative in the not so distant future.(it is currently too).

act now.
thank me later.

[Edit]

Flinter -- volavka, 17:38:43 11/20/03 Thu

Real estate purchase:
If the property is in a location for fly fishing and or can be used as hunting property, you may consider farming it under those conditions.

Alot of money spent by those who hunt and fish.

Maybe you could stock it with retired politician and govt employees. 100.00 a pop to take out a leg. 200 for an arm shot. 300 an ear. No kill shots to mame games.

[Edit]

Hawk -- volavka, 17:29:22 11/20/03 Thu

If anyone follows my suggestions, please email me so I can tell you when I'm going to lighten up.
I'm flat in cypt from 1.50 thru 1.08 after buy in @ .12 thru .18

I will buy some @ .50 and more if it drops to .35
Todays announcement from South africa will drive price lower.

[Edit]

Volavka -- Hawk, 16:14:10 11/20/03 Thu

Opinions, ideas, thoughts on CYPT? I own a bunch, going down the tubes currently. I listened to the CC and have followed it for a while, everything seems on track IMO. Curious as to your opinion. Time to buy more?

Gold and silver are a given eh! I still buy physical weekly, plus hold a few mining stocks.

I appreciate your input.

Hawk

[Edit]

@Flinter -- dotti, 16:05:53 11/20/03 Thu

Flinter,

Sounds like an idyllic setting! I love the idea of spring fed ponds. So many things to provide security for you. Would you grow vegetables, too?

I think that HBM gave a scholarly read regarding the value of farmland. I only have a few things to add—not really add, just to mention.

I believe that we are headed for times where there is inflation in the things that we “need” and deflation in things that we “want”.

The RE bubble is something for you to consider. RE, in general, is over-valued. Easy Al has seen to that. Many families own their home and several other pieces of RE. In tough times, everything except one parcel will be put on the market—either out of choice, or bankruptcy. In HBM’s example, people who had money—either cash on hand or credit—were able to purchase RE at “fire sale prices”. (Quoting AG regarding the rescue of LTCM!) The RE market is entirely dependent upon credit. Imagine what would happen to the RE market if people had to pay cash. And. Think whether that could be a possibility in the upcoming …whatever. Foreigners are not so interested in purchasing our debt anymore.

Now. Again looking at HBM’s wisdom, if you can get a loan where you would not lose your home in a worst case scenario—not cross collateralized, in other words—You would limit your risk. I would also agree with HBM that I would not divest of gold/silver in order to purchase RE. However, RE in most situations would be an excellent inflation hedge.

I posted earlier today about something that has puzzled me for sometime now. Many sanguine advisers say to “get out of debt”; yet they anticipate inflation. Inflation eats away at cash deposits in banks. Inflation also means that debt is repaid in “cheaper dollars.”

Just yesterday, my eldest brother flattered me by asking me what I would invest in, other than gold. His investments are primarily in RE, which, again, is traditionally a hedge against inflation—and cash. I think that RE is a big question mark right now because of the current bubble. I do think that HBM is correct that you can protect yourself with gold/silver as long as you maintain that position. And a piece of property with good water could provide security for you and your loved ones in a crisis.

Rural RE is very hard to value. My “marital residence” has been valued by RE agents from $36 k to $75k. A “good ol’ boy” who knows the RE market in the area told me that if I could get $20k for my half, that I should take it and run like a bandit. You tell me….

I respect HBM’s opinions on what you should do. Just to summarize, I think that you should NOT risk your home nor should you liquidate PMs to do this. I think that you should do your own “due diligence” as to the “value” of the property based upon recent sales in your area of similar properties. I think that you should consider the possibility that we are in a RE bubble and that RE prices may plummet as a result. I also think that it is reasonable to assume that inflation is headed our way—what other way out is there for the Feds to get out of this terrible debt situation they have created?

All in all, I would probably trust what HBM said—that your PMs—gee, I just realized that that is PMS—would be able to protect you against a worst case scenario. I’d go for it!

One other consideration: If you don’t purchase the property, who might? Could you end up encircled by low-cost housing?

Take care,

dotti

[Edit]

Flinter @ 10:17:44 11/20/03 Thu -- HBM, 15:13:03 11/20/03 Thu

Hi Flinter

Please do not consider this post as advice but only as information for what it is worth. Of course it, being free, is probably worth about as much as you have to pay for it. Then again some people pay for information which is designed to cause them to accomplish exactly the opposite as to what they desire.

I am not a true Hillbilly. I am only a wanna be. I was a flatlander-hick until I graduated from high school. I grew up surrounded by the richest farmland in the world. (Only some of the land along the Nile is worthy of comparison to it).

Let me tell you what happened in the 70’s and 80’s in flatlander-hick country. Soybeans became the crop of choice along corn and wheat for purposes of rotation and double cropping. In the prior decades cotton was king. Soybeans became king during the 70’s and 80’s for this rich, rich land. Soybeans took off and rose from around $3-$4 per bushel to around $7-$8 dollars per bushel. Beans even spiked to nosebleed figures for a short moment in time much in the same way that silver spiked to around $50.00 for a very short moment in time.

Just a little more background before I get to the point. Interest rates began to rise rather astronomically near the end of the great soybean bubble but the dollar had been completely decoupled from gold and the Fed made money free and easy for the purchase of this highly productive land along with all other real estate.

Row crop farming was so profitable for a time that the land in the specific area of which I speak rose in price from $1200-$1500 per acre to an unbelievable of $4,500-$5,500 range. Interest rates were not so bad at the time and soybean prices and other row crops prices were so good that wanna be big-time farmers mortgaged all in order to buy up this land at those astronomical prices. Of course the loans were not as long-term as the farmers had thought because they were in the form of demand notes and the debt service depended upon reasonable interest rates and continued very high prices for the crops produced on this land.

Most everyone one over 50 years of age will remember the great bitterness in the Midwest over the destruction of the family farm when interest rates shot to the moon and commodity prices went back to their old price levels.

In addition, oil prices quadrupled twice and the cost of production (fuel and chemicals especially) went through the roof. Much of this farmland was foreclosed upon and the face of farming in the Midwest changed forever. Those who had debt up to their eyeballs lost their land and most of the family assets which had been accumulated for generations. This all happened mainly because the family wealth accumulated the old fashion way (by earning it) was collateralized against a newfangled style of accumulating wealth (borrowing it into existence).

Time has passed and I find a rather different experience. A different type of real estate surrounds me now. No more high-priced commercial real estate here. No more highly productive row cropland here. What I have been exposed to is meager row cropland, meager pastureland and good timberland. I have watched the swings in beef prices and timber prices and notice that the price of the land of this type is very inelastic downward. What do I mean by this:

First of all when beef prices get high the price of grazing pasture rises. When the price of lumber gets high the price of land with standing timber rises. Yet when beef prices and timber prices cycle back to lower levels, the land of this sort does not tend to drop but tends to hold until the next upward move in beef and or lumber prices.

I know that there are many other factors to consider. Among them, the steady movement of retires and burnt-outs like myself from the city to the hills. But one thing did not happen as did to the row cropland in the southeast section (actually the spur of the bootheel) of Missouri. What did not happen: - there was no wholesale foreclosure on the land of this type.

The circumstances were different, no doubt. The buyers were generally able to service the debt on this land because the debt service was not dependent upon annual cash flow production from this land. This land was took on more of the nature of a long-term investment.

A few questions might be worthy of consideration:

1)Will the real estate which you now own be cross-collateralized with the new loans on the newly acquired real estate?
2)Would a drastic drop in the building industry or pallet building industry put your ability to service the new debt into jeopardy?
3)Would a drastic drop in livestock prices put your ability to service the new debt into jeopardy?
4)Are there other precarious possibilities that might put your ability to service the new debt into jeopardy?

There is an aspect that may be a very positive one. The land which you have described sounds to be self-diversified. Row cropland, woodlands, pasturelands, rural real estate development land. A big hit in row crop prices would not necessarily affect timberland, and pastureland prices. A big hit in livestock prices would not necessarily affect row crop and timberland prices. A big hit in the building industry, while hurting the value of timberland with building-grade lumber, would not necessarily affect the value timberland with pallet-grade lumber or cropland and pastureland for that matter. A general hit in real estate across the land might not necessarily hit this land hard due to the lack of downward inelasticity that this sort of land appears to have.

The only real serious negative here would be a case where you would not be able to service the debt should the “great depression” materialize. My guess is that should that be the case, you would protect yourself by holding physical gold and or silver as insurance. Should the unimaginable happen there is no doubt that just a small portion of PM holdings could be used to liquidate all of the debt in question.

I have probably missed the mark in your specific situation but based upon what I suspect, I would say, go for it. One other note: - if you have to make a choice between that of borrowing to buy this property or selling gold and or silver at this time, borrow the money against the newly acquired real estate without any cross-collateralization and keep the gold and or silver even if part these metals are partially leveraged. The insurance will make the difference if things go sour. If things do not go sour then you will be able to service the debt anyway.

I will shut up for now. As I say that I must continue with one last funny against myself. Someone once told me (I cannot remember who) “Could you please shut up shuttin' up?” (Grin)

HBM

PS: I am convinced that the family farmers who lost all in the 70's and 80's would still be smelling like a rose had they 5% or more of their holdings been in silver.

[Edit]

Flinter -- qwerty, 13:21:27 11/20/03 Thu

---
>Under what conditions would you forsee a DECLINE in the value of this sort of rural/farmland acreage?
---

i would think it would track real estate in the locality but don't know

what i would do is look up previous past data for the area

there must be some chart data that reflects the yearly ups and downs of rural farmland for the area

then overlay that chart with the real estate in the local area

you may be able to see the correlations

another way is call real estate people who deal with farm land and see what they can tell you ... ask them for chart data also

how do rising commodity prices reflect farmland prices

i'd be curious on what your conclusions are and what they were based on

[Edit]

bears really putting up a fight -- qwerty, 13:11:14 11/20/03 Thu

looking at all those downward mostly momentary spikes the past 24 hours in gold shows the bears really putting on a an aggressive fight

it is really something to behold

when was the last time so many spikes occurred within a 24 hour period

if i were a buying bull, i would just buy hanging around the support line until monday

after 12pm on friday, i expect a more concerted effort given that CRIMEX will be the only open market

why fight the bargain prices

just let them give it away, keep loading up and ride the long trend

[Edit]

Once again with feeling -- volavka, 11:46:55 11/20/03 Thu

Ban all options.
Remove options trading.

[Edit]

Flinter -- SLATT, 10:56:36 11/20/03 Thu

It depends on why you are buying it.

If for agriculture: All agriculture (yes ALL) is driven by economies of scale, the larger the more profitable. Are you already a farmer? Do you intend to rent pasture? Many other variables. And ag prices are always driven by the large producers. And so are the regs set by government.

If for real estate investment: Only you would know the market and any issues relative to that land. Generally ag land and rural holdings were killed in the early to mid '80s, only recently recovering.

If you want it for more living space only you can decide if it is worth it or not. Good luck.

[Edit]

Flinter -- volavka, 10:30:46 11/20/03 Thu

Close to home, sounds good, go for it.

Depending on your location, beef is going much higher for several years.
Goats, sheep beefalo all types of options while you wait for the metals to go to da moon.
speaking of moon, he's being held for moon walking.

[Edit]

Flinter request for help -- Flinter, 10:17:44 11/20/03 Thu

Hi All.

I would like to ask the ER community for feedback.

My wife and I are considering a purchase of a farm which surrounds our current property. It is water rich (3 year-round open spring feed streams), and a combination of crop land, wood land, and pasture. Basically, three valleys coming together to form a bigger valley making up the property. We are looking at 440 acres. The property includes an older farmstead (older house, dairy barn, & out buildings, etc....all usable but not new).

And yes...we will be borrowing.

We share a common view, here at the ER, on things economic (at a minimum...we share many views).

I know there are lots of factors to consider, both personal & business...believe me I know. However, my request is quite specific.

My request:

Under what conditions would you forsee a DECLINE in the value of this sort of rural/farmland acreage?

Any feedback or discussion would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Flinter

[Edit]

Wow close to turkey day -- volavka, 09:17:54 11/20/03 Thu

and we're serving up some good meat here:

Put gold on hold maybe till Monday, options expire, but yes todays signal was and still is a good up signal.

Is the universe by its very nature mathematical? rephrased using a famous aphorism of the British physicist Sir James Jeans, as : Is God a mathematician?

[Edit]

tree in the forest -- number six, 08:08:41 11/20/03 Thu

About factions, yep, I was just going off on my own tangent about that topic, I wasn't really adressing what you said. But what you've just posted, I agree with word for word.

[Edit]

@Number Six -- dotti, 07:49:27 11/20/03 Thu

Thanks for your concern!

i was hoping that the "low" for the day would be 29, but, alas, somebody did get their order filled at 28. You hit the nail on the head. I was hoping that you were the 28, but sounds like you have something of more interest for right now. It can be fun. That is, when the markets are going the "right" way.

I'll be shocked if gold does anything before the end of Monday. However, I've been shocked before--not usually in the happy sense, though. LOL

Back to the studio.

HBM, I haven't had time to "digest" your post. It is of interest to me and I think of great importance.

Take care, All.

dotti

[Edit]

Gross National Deficit Update -- HBM, 06:10:01 11/20/03 Thu

The Gross deficit for the twelve months ended 09/30/03 came in at $585 Billion and then was later revised to $555 Billion. Amazing how the Treasury can make a $30 Billion mistake on the final day of the fiscal year and then suddenly correct the mistake a few days after the fact without any mention of it anywhere in the press or any notice by the dumbed-down public.

That is precisely what happened. The treasury department reported the fiscal year end closing Gross Debt (09/30/03) at $585 Billion. A few days later I pulled up the “Debt to the Penny” treasury site and discovered that $30 Billion of the Debt had been lopped off of the final day of the fiscal year. Not a word of explanation anywhere came to the light of day.

I projected a gross deficit of at least $700 Billion for the fiscal year ending 09-30-03. I missed that projection as usual. In fact my projection overshot the gross deficit by $165 Billion, quite a large miss by any standard. Most of that miss actually exists but is temporarily hidden from view. I cannot prove it but I will state emphatically that it does exist. It is one thing to hide something from view and quite another to cause that something to cease to exist.

I believe that auspec has previously hinted that he places little credence in the Gross Debt numbers released by the treasury department. I will not go quite that far. I will agree that the numbers are obviously tainted, but only on a temporary basis as these hidden debt instruments eventually must come into view.

For this reason I will abandon my silly attempts to predict the timing of gross deficits. This does not mean that I do not consider the watching of those deficits to be very informative. I consider these numbers to be very important and I believe that bond traders watch them very closely also. As always, I have held the position that the bond traders will drive interest rates to nose bleed levels when we reach the brink of default on the interest.

I will no longer make predictions as to the timing of gross debt and gross deficits; however, I will post the published numbers and comment on them from time to time. Watch out for the first $1 Trillion annual gross deficit in the history of the world. It will mean that the $USD has become history.

The gross deficit for the new fiscal year is on course for another record. I will comment on it and compare it with last year’s all-time record gross deficit after the close of November when we will have two months to compare. Looks like this year will be a doozie. (sp)

HBM

[Edit]

Dotti re apll -- number six, 05:55:44 11/20/03 Thu

Dotti, I was happy you were happy with how apll went. It made my day. I was sweating your trade more than any of mine - might've been my mortal fear of responsibility, or perhaps it was the 90% humidity at 4am. I haven't got back in yet... those bucks got waylaid on imxpf because I heard about their news release 5 minutes before the market, thanks to a little birdy. But the market ignored the drilling news, and imxpf's not good for flipping because of the otcbb bid/ask spread, and because I'm in love with it. But I think I will still do the apll thing tis morning. I still think apll are cheap, and a real good one to hold as far as el cheapo golds go. (Reading over that, I also think I should try that Alistair Crowley thing where you don't use the word "I" for weeks in a row. :) )

[Edit]

omar re fractals -- number six, 05:32:04 11/20/03 Thu

There's actually a very good movie about a trader who uses Mandelbrot etc to time the next crash. It's called The Bank, and it stars Faramir from Lord of the Rings, plus Anthony LaPaglia who makes a great bad guy. It's Australian, but don't let that put you off. It features lots of Julia sets, and has a very anti-establishment undertone. Plus it makes Melbourne look interesting, which is quite a cinematographic feat imho. ;) Maybe amazon would have it.

[Edit]

@OmarD -- dotti, 05:15:13 11/20/03 Thu

Thanks. I didn't realize that fractals were part of the same principle. Interesting.

Omar: "The first PM Chart Analyst that learns to apply "Z=Z(squared)+C" to historical Au/Ag price movements...will become "King of the World"...anyone else working on?"

Wouldn't the manipulations throw off anything "natural" in the program?

Just wonderin' along....

Off to the studio....

dotti

[Edit]

@dotti..."mathematical configuration" -- OmarD, 04:58:08 11/20/03 Thu

RE:

"... I learned enough to look at the world differently. Even the way trees branch out and the veins in leaves follow the pattern. I have even read that the pattern left by waves on the beach is in the same mathematical configuration--which seems a little harder to believe--but--what do I know?

Actually, dotti, you know much.

the "configuration" is "Z=Z(squared)+C"

welcome to the world of "Fractals" (search: Mandelbrot)

i.e.

"Sand Swept"

Rgds,

OmarD

PS: @All..if you don't (unfortunately) own some "tocqueville" (fund holding exclusivley "unhedged mines" and "physical"...) John Hathaway has a great essay posted at:

http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=53

Just a couple more...

(Wild Mutant Broccoli)

(Sunrise)

Comment: The first PM Chart Analyst that learns to apply "Z=Z(squared)+C" to historical Au/Ag price movements...will become "King of the World"...anyone else working on? (sure way to "predict" future..."Harry Seldon's" secret? huh, Flinter?)

[Edit]

Satisfaction -- AuWag, 04:25:01 11/20/03 Thu

Always good to see the insightful hare out and about. Definitely worth the "poke".

Heading out to participate in the 'curse of man'.......

[Edit]

@volavka, auspec, et al -- dotti, 03:49:08 11/20/03 Thu

Good Morning, All!

volvaka: "Since you love art you need to read the Da Vinci code by brown."

I don't know if it is the same thing as the golden section or the golden mean--different terms for the same principle--but I am very much interested in that idea. I did some research on it about 20 years ago as a psychology student. My paper was titled Art, Math, and Visual Perception. As a student, my "research" was cursory. I learned enough to look at the world differently. Even the way trees branch out and the veins in leaves follow the pattern. I have even read that the pattern left by waves on the beach is in the same mathematical configuration--which seems a little harder to believe--but--what do I know? The simplest representation of this shape is the 3 x 5 index card. It was made a "pleasing shape", but adjusted to the measure in inches. The DaVinci Code sounds like very interesting reading. Thanks. I tried reading "Godel, Escher, and Bach," but found it "above my head" even though my HS nephew devoured it! Maybe I should give it another try. I am also interested in "Man and his Symbols."

My thoughts on who would want physical delivery of gold. two possibles and it could easily be both: China, almost definitely, since they are offering to their people. and the members of the Arab world, who are quickly becoming disenchanted with the US. It would not necessarily be an "attack" against the dollar, but certainly could be.

Auspec, I am such the rebel that I have trouble thinking "inside the box"; how did I grow up with the two who are so comfortable there?!?!? Thanks for your acknowledgement.

I continue to be troubled by what seems to me to be inconsistent. Richard Russell and others say that we are headed for inflation, big time; yet recommend being out of debt. While I would never recommend that someone mortgage their home to buy gold, if I personally came into $100,000 and had a $100k mortgage on my home at 6% interest, I would not use the money to pay off my mortgage. Heck. I'd load up a truck with gold and silver, metals and shares. I have seen this opinion time and again. It sounds good to say "get debt free", but debt loves inflation. Leverage, then pay back in cheaper dollars.

I DO understand that it can be overdone--in fact, it has been overdone. But. Just looking at the $100k example above, would you pay off the mortgage or purchase metals/shares?

Maybe some still think that we could be headed for deflation? I agree with somebody who wrote that they anticipate inflation for things that are "needs" and deflation for things that are "wants". I tend to agree with that.

I guess we beat the inflation/deflation thing to death sometime ago. Seems like inflation is pretty much a consensus now?

When my mind wanders this much, you know I haven't had my first cup of coffee. LOL

Next week will perhaps be more interesting than this one--but I'm enjoying watching this week, as well.

Take care, All.

dotti

[Edit]

AuWag - Rehab....Never Happen To This Fur Ball! -- Harvey, 23:37:47 11/19/03 Wed

Wabbit is never too far; just sit'n back, taking it all in, whilst lapp'n and sipp'n from the fountain of life.......and pondering when the merry go round fornicators will slam the monkey wrench into our feeble cogs, throwing u.s. earthbound misfits onto our pointed little Heads?

Rehab you mention - Is this the mind control plantation foisted by corporate hack journalism, sponsored by the "oligopoly" (see link for definition) which some brain infected pustules refer to as..... "fair and unbiased reporting"?
{no offense meant towards honest working symbiotic pustules}

Hmmmph....Our regurgitating re-education rehab entities have become nothing but pablum for the candy asses who couldn't pick their mother out of a room full of baboons.
{no offense meant to honest working baboons, or their mothers}

From a speach by Bill Moyers, recently:

http://truthout.org/docs_03/111403E.shtml

snip - for fair use, and educational or rehabilitation purposes only.

"Never have hand and glove fitted together so comfortably to manipulate free political debate, sow contempt for the
idea of government itself, and trivialize the people’s need to know. When the journalist-historian Richard Reeves was once asked by a college student to define “real news”, he answered: “The news you and I need to keep our freedoms.” When journalism throws in with power that’s the first news marched by censors to the guillotine. The greatest moments in the history of the press came not when journalists made common cause with the state but when they stood fearlessly independent of it."
end snip

Hau! I'll bet you regret searching under the road apples, for da nefarious wabbit.

Ok, back to my lobotomy induced catatonic state of habitual demensia.

Sipp'n along,
Harvey

[Edit]

questioner -- Tree in the Forest, 22:47:49 11/19/03 Wed

Yes. At that other site where many of us came from, I argued briefly with the gatekeeper. It was his contention that traders would have some sort of epiphany that would lead them to realize that their paper contracts were worthless. I contended that there would have to be some sort of "trigger" to set gold free. Clearly I was early in my post last Monday. And apparently traders are now aware that something is amiss. And yet the game continues! The jury is still out on whether he or I will turn out to be right. There will be another "opportunity" next week.

[Edit]

qwerty & number six -- Tree in the Forest, 22:36:25 11/19/03 Wed

In my post, I stated "Faction 2: It's time to put up or shut up!". How you deduced from this that I believe that Faction 2 is a group of white knights galloping in to "save us" I do not know. The fact is that we are sitting on the threshold of $400 not because of any of us small fry, but because a group of wealthy, well-connected individuals believe as we do that it is time to end the domination of these crooked, socialist paper money bankers. Faction 2 may not be saints. I am not a saint. Nor (I think) is anyone at this forum. That's not the point. The point is that if you define "good guy" as someone who supports PMs, then they and we are "good guys". We're on the same side. That's the point. And in my goading post, I am trying to say that the time to strike is while the iron is hot.

As to optimism versus "realistic" pessimism. I prefer guarded optimism. In this I am not alone. Richard Maybury, (www.chaostan.com) a man whom I respect, professes long term optimism. He's certainly a realist and not a man with a "Pollyanna" reputation but long term, he is optimistic. I find his attitude good enough for me. But to each his own.

[Edit]

john hathaway -- qwerty, 20:09:06 11/19/03 Wed

===
Over the last three decades, it has been the practice of central bankers to demonetize gold, thereby making intertemporal and interlocal assessments of value much more difficult, if not impossible. In theory, a dollar standard might have worked, but in practice it has not. Without a global monetary compass, unrestricted issuance of government and corporate debt, trade imbalances, misallocations of capital, periodic banking crises, and currency turmoil should come as no surprise. It seems more than likely than ever that the world’s central bankers will eventually convene to reprice gold to a level sufficient to persuade a world of paper skeptics that the metal must be reinstated as the numeraire. That level will exceed whatever the market is at that time by a substantial amount. Our guess is the market at the time of an official sector bid will be well into 4-digit territory.
===

hey, well into 4 digits to me means 6900

[Edit]

dotti -- mini, 19:11:17 11/19/03 Wed

Some folk simply aren't teachable..........nada mas, nada menos. Those who appreciate the effort deserve the most attention, no?

Shake the dust off your feet............

[Edit]

House of Saud -- volavka, 18:16:37 11/19/03 Wed

like this stock.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK:TMG&sid=1233028&time=

[Edit]

Dotti -- volavka, 17:51:43 11/19/03 Wed

Inversion is a product of black shoales work.

Since you love art you need to read the Da Vinci code by brown.
Then study all you can on the number phi. You will never again look @ a pyramid, pinecone or Picasso in the same light.

[Edit]

To all people of the world -- Sojourner, 17:08:07 11/19/03 Wed

Greed is the cancer of the human soul.

Sacrificing children is the gangrene of the soul

Very depressing,
Sojo

[Edit]

Gold Rumor Mill -- auspec, 17:07:31 11/19/03 Wed

This post has really made the rounds on the internet:

Interesting Post on Yahoo DROOY Board

VERY Interesting Info From The Pits
by: asianching 11/18/03 08:52 pm
Msg: 149740 of 149741

FYI....I spoke after the close today with a longtime friend of mine. He's been a trader on the floor in New York for about a decade. This guy is a very straight shooter as well as a personal friend; I can always trust him to give me the straight scoop on what's happening and what the chatter is, as opposed to some trader friends who will talk their book no matter how long you've known them.

This guy says something VERY big is happening behind the scenes in the gold market right now and tension on the floor is higher than he's ever seen it. He believes there is now a systematic, behind-the-scenes effort by multiple buyers to take delivery of as much gold as possible. I asked him what was wrong with that, and he replied that there IS no gold out there in size at any level right now. There's no physical offered in size at any reasonable level, and he said it has never been more of a paper market than now. I then asked him two questions: Who are the buyers, and has there been Fed intervention? He thinks that the buyers are too large to simply be short or intermediate-term speculators, and says the chatter is that the buying is coming out of Asia. In terms of the Fed, he said that almost all traders on the floor including him believe the Fed has been periodically intervening to cap the rallies in gold....but then he said something that was somewhat shocking. He thinks the Fed has actually been trying to BUY gold. He thinks the periodic attempts to cap the rallies (which he says happened yesterday, by the way) have two purposes: to not allow gold to spook the bond market and the dollar, AND to give the Fed a chance to buy gold lower from speculators when the rallies fail. Apparently, there is some speculation among in-the-know traders that at some point next year, the Fed may be forced by the dollar and bond markets to float the idea of an eventual return to at least a PARTIAL dollar/gold link. Some of this chatter comes from the fact that earlier this year, Greenspan made a speech that started off mentioning how the gold standard had led to stable prices over a long period of time.

In any event, that's the scoop. There was a lot of tension in my friend's voice, and he repeatedly said that something "very big" is happening in market right now. The last thing he said was that he thinks $500 gold within the next 6 months is "a done deal."

-END-
////////////////////////////////////////////

Comment: Managing the gold market higher as she goes {blows} is the Fed's only viable option.........could they have finally figured it out?

[Edit]

@Big Au -- dotti, 17:00:26 11/19/03 Wed

It is sadly that i point out that freedom of information is no longer in effect. The mass media is in control of information.

I wrote both of my very intelligent, very "well-informed" brothers about the dangers of the fiat world. I pointed out the trillion dollars of combined federal debt and current account deficits. I noted the resistance of the rest of the world to continue to buy our debt at the same pace as they did in August. I also pointed out the beginnings of trade wars. They still consider gold to be "too risky".

Sorry. There is no word that we can convey to the zombies who today call themselves Americans.

They have seen numerous "warnings" over the years that we would perhaps experience another Great Depression--that never materialized. Now, they are immune. Don't worry about things that aren't going to happen.

Sleep, my pretty.

dotti

[Edit]

Currency Positioning -- auspec, 15:44:55 11/19/03 Wed

Article @ G-E by Wallenwein, who is an obvious FOA {ANOTHER one}.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wallenwein112103pv.html

Tiny snippet snatched under darkness, fairly, for educational purposes.

"America" is mainly an idea. An idea of maximum individual liberty under a limited government. They may wipe the country that is today called "America" off the map (though I will die if necessary to keep that from happening), but the idea of America may conquer them in the end. Gold ownership and freedom of information just don't jibe too well with totalitarian - or any other kind of - communism.

You and I have our work cut out for ourselves: alert a lethargic, dis-educated, media-bombarded American public to the dangers that lie ahead - and get them to act in the right direction, i.e., toward the Constitution and Liberty, not toward the idea of "What's in it for me, now?"And that needs to be done BEFORE a serious economic calamity destroys this country's ability to direct its own future.

END

Comment: Wallenwein doesn't come across as "elitist" as the windbag who called for 50c Ag.

P.S. There's a negative article on silver at 321 Gold, but I really wouldn't expect more than that by its proprietor.

Wonder what the cwazzy wabbit is up 2 these days? Probably in rehab {tis a joke, Harv........smile}

[Edit]

@jomama, volavka, et al -- dotti, 15:31:14 11/19/03 Wed

Jomama, thanks for the link.

volavka, I hope your harley ride cleared your head. regarding an inversion--is it the same as backwardation? Is it current POG is higher than future POG--being the exception to the rule?

No. 6, I saw that apll traded at 28 cents. Did you get your execution???

take care, all.

dotti

[Edit]

We have inversion now -- volavka, 15:18:38 11/19/03 Wed

In dec contract:

Due to options you must watch mkt by the minute time frame.

This is a very explosive pattern.

[Edit]

Watching $ demise - dotti -- jomama, 13:13:56 11/19/03 Wed

The link:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[m,a]dhclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J6511704,Y]&listNum=1

[Edit]

volavka -- qwerty, 12:45:16 11/19/03 Wed

parents who allow their kids to "sleep over" at jackson's ...

for those parents, it's a money proposition ... the kid is just a piece of property that they use

having jackson face legal charges without understanding the complicity of the parents is absurd

there are many parents around the world who have kids and sell them into slavery and prostitution just for the buck ...

sorta like some politicians in the US who protect kidnapping, murder and experimentation of children

getting parents who will allow the above happen has to really suck big time ...

being a kid, one doesn't have any reference points to make sense of it ... the leadership in all those organizations that are suppose to help protect children are complicit too ... they are just there to maintain the illusion that the authorities are there to protect them when behind the scenes they protect the racket

[Edit]

reuters gold propaganda -- qwerty, 12:30:32 11/19/03 Wed

--
Some dealers said they expected gold to trade around $380 an ounce level within a week or 10 days.

"This level of $400 is not sustainable," one trader said.
---

it should read .... some crooked dealers expect the price of gold to be rigged at 380 an ounce

i don't think 400 is sustainable either, it will go a lot higher ... if india doesn't buy it, i'm sure some buyers from china will step in

380 number is being propagated by the cabal media

that mitsui guy ... andy ... his call for gold to top at 380 and we really know he speaks for the cabal

380 is the behind the scenes objective for the cabal for this year

we make it up to the next trading range between 420 to 450 and that will be good area to consolidate in and keep the sheep thinking it is a top before it collapses to 200

===

AHMEDABAD, India, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Gold trade in India, the world's largest buyer, ground to a virtual halt on Wednesday after global prices traded above $400 an ounce for the first time since 1996 on a weakening U.S. dollar and global security fears, traders said.
"We were selling at a discount yesterday but today we have not traded even a single bar," a leading trader said in Ahmedabad, a key bullion trading centre.

In the past few days, gold in the domestic market was being traded around $5 lower than the international prices as consumers were selling old gold.

Dealers said attacks on U.S.-led troops in Iraq and fears of fresh al Qaeda attacks had raised interest in safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. There were also worries the United States' "war on terror" would backfire.

Gold touched a high of $400.25 an ounce in early Asian trade before profit-taking erased some of the gains.

"Earlier we were expecting gold prices to come down to $380 an ounce but now it looks like the rates will not fall below $390," a New Delhi-based trader said.

Demand for gold in India is generated mainly through weddings and festivals. The buying season begins in September and peaks in October during Diwali, the festival of lights.

"Purchases from banks for new gold has nearly stopped. People are getting their old ornaments exchanged for new ones," Narinder Singh Rathode said from the northern city of Jaipur.

Some dealers said they expected gold to trade around $380 an ounce level within a week or 10 days.

"This level of $400 is not sustainable," one trader said.

India imports an average of 13,000 gold bars (of 116.64 grams each) a day, and these overseas purchases constitute about 70 percent of the country's total consumption.

[Edit]

reuters gold propaganda -- qwerty, 12:29:48 11/19/03 Wed

--
Some dealers said they expected gold to trade around $380 an ounce level within a week or 10 days.

"This level of $400 is not sustainable," one trader said.
---

it should read .... some crooked dealers expect the price of gold to be rigged at 380 an ounce

i don't think 400 is sustainable either, it will go a lot higher ... if india doesn't buy it, i'm sure some buyers from china will step in

380 number is being propagated by the cabal media

that mitsui guy ... andy ... his call for gold to top at 380 and we really know he speaks for the cabal

380 is the behind the scenes objective for the cabal for this year

we make it up to the next trading range between 420 to 450 and that will be good area to consolidate in and keep the sheep thinking it is a top before it collapses to 200

===

AHMEDABAD, India, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Gold trade in India, the world's largest buyer, ground to a virtual halt on Wednesday after global prices traded above $400 an ounce for the first time since 1996 on a weakening U.S. dollar and global security fears, traders said.
"We were selling at a discount yesterday but today we have not traded even a single bar," a leading trader said in Ahmedabad, a key bullion trading centre.

In the past few days, gold in the domestic market was being traded around $5 lower than the international prices as consumers were selling old gold.

Dealers said attacks on U.S.-led troops in Iraq and fears of fresh al Qaeda attacks had raised interest in safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. There were also worries the United States' "war on terror" would backfire.

Gold touched a high of $400.25 an ounce in early Asian trade before profit-taking erased some of the gains.

"Earlier we were expecting gold prices to come down to $380 an ounce but now it looks like the rates will not fall below $390," a New Delhi-based trader said.

Demand for gold in India is generated mainly through weddings and festivals. The buying season begins in September and peaks in October during Diwali, the festival of lights.

"Purchases from banks for new gold has nearly stopped. People are getting their old ornaments exchanged for new ones," Narinder Singh Rathode said from the northern city of Jaipur.

Some dealers said they expected gold to trade around $380 an ounce level within a week or 10 days.

"This level of $400 is not sustainable," one trader said.

India imports an average of 13,000 gold bars (of 116.64 grams each) a day, and these overseas purchases constitute about 70 percent of the country's total consumption.

[Edit]

I know, judge not -- volavka, 12:24:27 11/19/03 Wed

but they arrest the jackson boy; why don't they lock up the parents of the kid for child neglect.

World is crazy, going out and ride the harley.

[Edit]

@volavka, number six, et al -- dotti, 11:20:04 11/19/03 Wed

Now. I'm ready for gold to roll!

I would have purchased apll @36 yesterday, but my partner saw the post saying you were waiting for 28. He stubbornly (and wisely) wanted to wait for 28, as well. I fudged a little and put the order in at 29. We got execution. It's not a whole lot of shares, but enough to get excited over a 10 cent run! I like three's--sorry number six--and that rounds out my juniors. I surely didn't expect to get execution at that low level, but number six, you set the example.

I think like you said, volavka. Once it gets to $6, who cares whether we bought at 28 cents or 36 cents.

Run, baby, run!

volavka, I like your thinking on gap up today/tonight. Why not?

Well. I'm pretty pleased with the purchase. Thanks for your comments!!!

dotti

[Edit]

Qwerty -- volavka, 10:15:30 11/19/03 Wed

What?
How about we blow thru 400 starting tonite/tomorrow and run strong.
Gap up sounds like fun to me.

[Edit]

Embry & Russell -- qwerty, 09:03:02 11/19/03 Wed

Both don't expect 400 will be broken until the call options expire next monday

if i was the stalker, i would buy big this friday after 12 noon on the COMEX but make smaller purchases between now and expiration

a lot of buying on friday should be easily offset with a lot of selling by the gold call holders ... they can manipulate the price easier

it's a way for the stalker to walk away from gold at lowest prices

this is a lesson on why call or put options are for more savvy investors.

just about any option can be easily manipulated by the big money people

being opposite of big money in such a game seems like financial suicide except for the very savvy or gambling types who really don't care if it is rigged and can afford to lose

observing this gold bull is a real education in how the cabal crooks steal from people in the so called market

as long as there are enough naive investors and a crooked government to protect the manipulators, they can stay in business and be guaranteed to make money at the rigged game

it is one thing to give everyone an equal opportunity to rig the market but it is quite another to allow only the privileged insiders to be above the law

if it were up to me and i were the government, probably the only thing i would support would be transparency...
i would get the government out of the business of regulating investor related instruments. there would be no SEC except to maintain transparency and verify the investor got the product. All disputes would be private contracts between investors and scam artists. Rigging, inside information and everything else would be legal.

The biggest danger I see with regulation is that it gives the the general investors the ILLUSION that they are truly being protected.

This would force people to THINK instead of being drones

This would have the added benefit of getting people scared to invest and the industry in general taking more proactive measures to protect the investor or have fewer customers.

on a side note on the subject of marriage ... isn't it peculiar that so many people who want to keep government out of their life don't see nothing wrong with the government "licensing" of marriage ... people get upset about really stupid stuff like the legislature declaring that two male squirrels are a valid marriage instead of thinking, "hey, this is a private matter" and support a private contract where the government gets out of the licensing business and has no say ...

also two people go into the contract knowing what will happen if they get divorced ... men who have assets get screwed over royally in divorces and no custody of kids ... instead of moving to get government out of such private affairs, they maintain that the solution is government when the solution is no government and no politicans and no beauracrats, just keep it a private matter ... we live in a world with mostly mindless cogs

as this generation grows up with the orwellian patriot act and homeland gestapo security, it will all seem normal to most of them.

[Edit]

forex fraud -- volavka, 08:16:46 11/19/03 Wed

Crows still laughing, there it isn't.

How can you have a fraud of a fraud.

Banks scammed, what a joke, this is the funniest thing I've ever heard.

Corruption of corruption.
Where is Billy shakespear? Kill all the lawyers.
Wooden Nickel, ha ha ha.

[Edit]

drudge -- qwerty, 07:59:35 11/19/03 Wed

you know, drudge is an example of how TPTB create a well known journalist

he prints some tintillating trash about monica that are fed to him by the clinton people and people think he is a journalist

drudge gets paid to keep the sheep entertained with mindless news or outright lies

drudge sells this country out every day and TPTB pay him for it. they are professional traitors. the media is full of them.

as the USA sinks into darkness, drudge works every day to make sure that continues

[Edit]

The crows are laughing -- volavka, 06:49:06 11/19/03 Wed

Have nice day. end of story!!!

[Edit]

will Blacky chase Bluey? -- number six, 06:38:33 11/19/03 Wed

Kitco live

[Edit]

atr -- volavka, 06:19:00 11/19/03 Wed

post # 112050 has figured it out.

maybe we should raise the bar to over 650.00

[Edit]

Bush to china -- volavka, 06:09:47 11/19/03 Wed

Go now, fly Air Hooters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Edit]

alot of you -- volavka, 05:56:46 11/19/03 Wed

will have to pick your jaws off the floor when we hit 650.
Happy chinese new year!!!

[Edit]

Your first headline @number six, ALL -- journeyman, 05:01:20 11/19/03 Wed

Check out Drudge , left column.

You will see "GOLD TO $400...".

Regards,
j.

[Edit]

MIDAS -- auspec, 03:32:01 11/19/03 Wed

9:15p ET Tuesday, November 18, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy's "Midas" commentary
for Monday, November 17, at LeMetropoleCafe.com
has been posted in the clear at GoldSeek and
Kitco here:

http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1069168988.php

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/nov172003.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[Edit]

golden brown -- number six, 03:28:01 11/19/03 Wed

If I was one of the gold price supressors - ESF, La Kosher Nostra, The Moonies or whoever they is - today is a day that I would spend a LOT of ammo. Simply because the big four oh oh will inevitably get some headlines and some attention, but if all the reports could conclude with "...but the excitement was shortlived, because gold sank a massive 5% after reaching the magic figure. So I guess gold is scary and volatile, and the goldbugs were fools for getting excited. Buy the SOX instead." well, this would serve their purposes well. I should apply for a job with them, eh?

[Edit]

Current POG, POS, POP & U$D Live Price -- CHARTs, 01:00:33 11/19/03 Wed

[Edit]

@qwerty -- goldus, 19:21:48 11/18/03 Tue

Re: "Maybe the bulls are hoping they'll take it down again before it goes back up"(paraphrased)
Some bulls in orient perhaps savoring the "moment" by letting it cook to perfection before they put it away.
Or maybe they're taking snapshots in their offices in front of the big screen tv tuned to Asiapulse or BloomburgAsia. Waiting for their wives, friends, partners or caterers to return with more film.

[Edit]

dotti -- $hifty, 18:34:54 11/18/03 Tue

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=15&t=l&a=2

[Edit]

@SoJo -- dotti, 17:04:37 11/18/03 Tue

I hope you're watching!

dotti

[Edit]

@all -- dotti, 17:02:43 11/18/03 Tue

Would somebody please post a link that is good for following the dollar('s demise).

TIA

dotti

[Edit]

@All -- dotti, 16:54:59 11/18/03 Tue

Well. I got to see gold at $400/ounce.

Now it has backed down again. But. Hallelulah.

Thanks to #6 and volavka. I am waiting--uncomfortably--for morning to buy.

I am not a pressure player!

This is a monumental evening for all of us here. Salute!

dotti

[Edit]

GOLD $400.00 !! -- $hifty, 16:50:58 11/18/03 Tue

YEEE HAW !!!!

[Edit]

Gold at 400 -- qwerty, 16:46:01 11/18/03 Tue

gold at 400

7:44 PM EST

YIPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Edit]

398.90 - 399.00 -- qwerty, 16:30:58 11/18/03 Tue

maybe the bulls are hoping the cabal takes it down again so they can buy some more at lower price again

[Edit]

China will be forced to repatriate currency and decouple Yuan? -- goldustorm, 16:28:57 11/18/03 Tue

Trade war stories coming out this week from all directions.
DUCK, DUCCKK, DDUUUCCCCKKKKKK before they take your head off!
Bush wants Chinese textile imports restricted too! Who'd of thunk it?

[Edit]

beesting -- qwerty, 16:01:03 11/18/03 Tue

thank you for those prices

398.60

cabal will probably have to work real late into the night

396 being a support makes the push over 410 feasible

isn't waiting for 400 like the count down to the new year

shouldn't there be goldbugs gathering around time square or some other crowded place with the clock being replaced by a live feeds from kitco to usher in the new era on gold

shouldn't there be some bands playing also

[Edit]

sinclair -- qwerty, 15:50:02 11/18/03 Tue

dyke is leaking too much

===

Comments from Jim Sinclair:

The most amazing number here is the amount of US Treasuries that Japan has purchased in the context of where the Yen is trading today. It reflects the immense nature of the pressures that are being placed on the various currencies in this scenario of a lower dollar.

This type of pressure is so great as to sink the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) activities. Will the ESF now be able to hold up the stock market, control the currency market, fiddle with gold, and hold the CRB from making new highs? No, it hasn’t the chance of a snowball in hell!

The dyke is simply leaking too much and the capital of the ESF is limited below the level of that required to jiggle every market on earth at the same time.

The other important message in these figures is the “follow the leader syndrome” that always exists among central banks. These figures will be viewed historically as the nail in the coffin of the US dollar. The dollar is heading much lower now and we are seeing the beginning of the end of the “Dollar reserve Standard.”

Another observation I have is that the shortfall in these numbers may well indicate that the auctions were not as successful as advertised and the Fed and some of its friends had to eat billions worth of the auctioned bonds. That would be a blockbuster if true.

Some gold experts will say that gold is now destined for $400 plus. I disagree - gold is now heading for $500.

===

[Edit]

bombing fraud -- qwerty, 15:42:49 11/18/03 Tue

another indication of the widescale complicity in the fraudulent war on terrorism

--
Someone said that the biggest achievement of the Devil was that he made us believe that he does not exist. It was clear that most western media is now controlled by the Devil, but, I am very surprised to read that now most 'Arab' AND Israeli 'news' are also under his control.
---

===
Istanbul Bombing - What
We Are Expected To Believe
Commentary
By Margita Lukkarinen
Helsinki, Finland
11-18-3

Dear Jeff,

Since Israel went to 'help' Turkey in solving the Istanbul bombing, the story seem to be turning upside down and all vital data seem to be 'forgotten'. I am enclosing an article from Israel:

1. We are expected to believe that ONLY 3 people did it.

2. Haaretz forgot that a brother of a cousin is a cousin too.

3. We are expected to believe that even thought the two bombers could walk away. they preferred to die in the vans , probably because they were too tired to fight the Zionists :-)

4. We are expected to forget that ALL initial reports indicated that the vans were parked.

5. We are expected to forget that all initial reports clearly said that the drivers were observed by local people walking away from the van.

6. We are not allowed to ask who put the bodies inside the vans before exploding them.

7. As usual, we are told that there is a link to Afghanistan even though this country has been already evaporated.

8. As usual 'they' 'found' a 'link' to Syria to justify attacking Syria soon.

8 Again we are expected to believe that al-Qaeda exist, based on 'intelligence' reports.

9. We are expected to believe that the 'suicide' bombers whom we were told repeatedly produced VERY sophisticated bombs, decided to use their own vans so that the rest of their family could be implicated and arrested.

10. We are expected to believe that the Turkish government, which until now insisted that there is clearly another government behind this bombing, changed its opinion this morning after getting 'help' from Israel, and decided that only one family is involved.

11. We are expected to believe that the Turkish police were lying when they told us initially that they have a security video showing clearly the bombers walking away from their vans.

12. Again, we are expected to believe that bin-Laden is alive, and he is behind all the evil of this world.

Someone said that the biggest achievement of the Devil was that he made us believe that he does not exist. It was clear that most western media is now controlled by the Devil, but, I am very surprised to read that now most 'Arab' AND Israeli 'news' are also under his control.

Yours,

Margita Lukkarinen Helsinki Finland

===================

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/362079.html

Last Update: 18/11/2003 20:24

Turkey: Man who dispatched Istanbul bombers fled to Syria

By Jonathan Lis, Yossi Melman and Zvi Barel, Haaretz Correspondents, Haaretz Service and News Agencies

Turkish investigators are reportedly close to uncovering the full story behind the terror bombings of two Istanbul synagogues on Saturday morning in which 25 people were killed and over 300 wounded.

Their probe has thus far revealed that the World Islamic Jihad was behind the attack. The bombings were apparently carried out in cooperation with Al-Qaida and other terror organizations.

It became clear on Tuesday that the terror cell that carried out the attack was primarily made up of members of one family. The two suicide bombers were cousins and the brother of one of the bombers headed the planning and execution of the attack. The brother fled to Syria immediately following the Saturday morning attack.

Turkish government figures on Tuesday accused Syrians not connected with the ruling regime of assisting the Istanbul terrorists in carrying out their double attack.

The investigation has also revealed that all four individuals involved in the planning and execution of the suicide bombings came from the city of Bingul in southeast Turkey.

All four were considered extremist Al-Qaida activists. They trained in Afghanistan and Iran and fought in Chechnya and in the Balkans. They were also previously active in Muslim organizations made illegal by Turkish authorities.

Turkish intelligence authorities and police said Monday that they had identified at least one of the suicide bombers from the attacks.

The suspected bomber is Azad Ekinci, from southeast Turkey, whose older brother has been called in by Istanbul police to provide a DNA sample.

The license plate on the vehicle that blew up outside the Beit Yisrael synagogue in Shishli was registered to the older brother.

Meanwhile, six Jewish victims of the attacks, including a young girl, were laid to rest Tuesday.

The six were named as eight-year-old Anita Rubinstein and her grandmother Anna, 85; Avraham Idinvarul, 40; Yoel Cohen Ulcher, the 20-year-old security guard at one of the two synagogues; Berta Usdawan, 34, who was killed along with her Muslim husband, Ahmed; and Yona Romano, 50, who died of a heart attack as a result of the bombing.

Their coffins were draped with Turkey's red-and-white flag emblazoned with a crescent and star, an honor normally given prominent citizens. Wreaths lined the walls of the cemetery in an affluent hilltop district of Istanbul.

Behind the area where the six coffins were displayed lay the victims' graves from a 1986 attack at Neve Shalom where gunmen opened fire during services, killing 22. The latest victims will be buried nearby.

An Arabic newspaper said Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaida network, which operated broadly in Afghanistan until the militant Islamist Taliban administration was overthrown by U.S. forces in 2001, had claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul confirmed in a Tuesday press conference that the tracks of the Istanbul terrorists lead to Afghanistan and Al-Qaida.

"It has emerged that there is a link [in the Istanbul suicide attacks] with an organization in Afghanistan in terms of belief and understanding," Gul told reporters.

He gave no details.

"The emerging evidence demonstrates that the security services have been very successful in their work," he said. "A trail has been found and relationships have emerged."

Gul did not say whether Turkish security services, who are being helped by Israeli authorities, were moving towards any arrests.

===

[Edit]

Past Peaks in Gold Price in U.S. Dollars. -- beesting, 15:31:57 11/18/03 Tue

From the Kitco charts page, don't know if the charts will post but here is the URL:

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgi

Since we should be blasting thru $400.00 POG any minute now I thought others might be interested in the peak prices of Gold, over the last 23 years, of course none of these prices are adjusted for loss of purchasing power of the dollar.

Going back in time:
Feb. 1996 Gold peaked over $417.00.
.....And then down.
Then we have to go back to 1990 to see a peak of $420.00.
......And then down.
Then to 1988 to see $480.00 Gold.
.......And then down.
Then we see $500.00 was touched in 1987.
.....And then down.
Then back to 1983 to see Gold higher than $500.00.
......And then down.
Then back to 1981 to see a $600.00 peak.
.......And then down.
Then back to Jan. 1980 when POG reached the record $850.00.

This tells us that many down days are to be expected along with the up days........The long term down trend lasted about 21 years.......And the up-trend is still very young at a little over 2 years.....

....Some thoughts only.....POG should pass the 1996 high of $417.00 and the 1990 high of $420 by the end of this year.........
.....Since Dec. 5th 2002 when Gold was $320.00 it (Gold) has gone up about $80.00 per ounce........It is rising about $100.00 per year.....Hence $500.00 Gold by Jan. 1st 2005 taking out the current 20 year (1983) $500.00 high.

We Watch together.......Of course a sudden "Melt UP"(Very High Peak) could occur at any time.........beesting.

[Edit]

dotti & qwerty -- Sojo, 12:26:55 11/18/03 Tue

qwerty - thanks for posting the link. I just happened across the article last night, saved it, but didn't know the link.

dotti - not only do we not see it posted, usually we don't even hear about it from our public media.

Good ideas from both of you, but I still don't understand it. Has the gov't asked for US corps. in other countries to come home? Or is this a "punishment" to the British people who may be employed in the company because they are protesting against him? Nahhhh Nobody gets THAT petty in such a big way.

Thank you for your comments,
Sojo

[Edit]

sojourner -- qwerty, 10:15:52 11/18/03 Tue

here is the link to the robert lea story

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid70616

i find it interesting since the US and Britain have the closest relations in the world as far as cabal activity

germany has also been tight with US ... germany and US worked behind the scenes to destroy yugoslavia and bring in destruction and chaos there ...

even one of moloslovic's aid was a former thatcher aid ... it ... we live in a small world

in drawing up plans to usher in global economic control, they are manufacturing a trade war

of course, the cabal one worlders will come to the "rescue" to "save" us with international "reform" ...

most people will be grateful and laud the political action

and some of us will see thru it

the more economic global chaos, the more order ( especially centralized control ) they bring to the global economic system

every so called crisis allows them to put up another barb wired fence around us

[Edit]

fast bop recovery -- qwerty, 09:48:17 11/18/03 Tue

a really quick bop recovery

another strong support level is forming or being verified at around 396

if i was the stalker, i would have been buying the large bop

[Edit]

Dotti -- volavka, 09:38:46 11/18/03 Tue

#6 is correct in what he stated, in mkt like this though could be left behind.

still dirt cheap.

[Edit]

dotti re apll -- number six, 09:21:43 11/18/03 Tue

Dotti, no there's no news on the golden apple, it's just going down a bit because it's gone up so much, if you know what I mean. I'm out at .35 and looking to get back in today at .28ish,... I think it will correct a little more before challenging resistance at .36 again. But I might get left behind on this little maneuver, who knows. This is all just hunches, btw, it might be dumb advise one way or another, but it's basically how I'm doing it.

[Edit]

Some sound advice... -- OmarD, 09:20:59 11/18/03 Tue

"Recommendation" from those blokes down under...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0311/S00133.htm

Good on ya! - Will give it our best shot...

OmarD

[Edit]

SoJo -- dotti, 09:00:53 11/18/03 Tue

Thanks to you for alerting us. That is not the type of news that we routinely get posted. Please keep us informed if you see further info on this.

Trade wars are a distinct possibility in this environment--seems perfect for it, in fact. (What do I know???)

Take care.

dotti

[Edit]

@volavka -- dotti, 08:58:02 11/18/03 Tue

I notice that apll is down 3 cents today. Is there news? I am considering a purchase.

TIA

dotti

[Edit]

dotti -- Sojourner, 08:17:01 11/18/03 Tue

dotti, thanks for pointing out my error. YES, that should be November 17. Many thoughts come to mind as to why I posted March, but the truth is - I don't know why. The Evening Standard by the way is a London paper.

Thanks for a quick eye.
Sojo

[Edit]

C.P.I. -- volavka, 07:36:15 11/18/03 Tue

C.P.I.= Chinese price index.

[Edit]

mkt run objective today -- volavka, 07:29:50 11/18/03 Tue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$407.00$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$4

[Edit]

Dr Hwang say -- volavka, 07:26:34 11/18/03 Tue

Hung fat enters mkt.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/031118/16/3fzaq.html

[Edit]

todays open positive -- volavka, 06:57:04 11/18/03 Tue

churn and burn.

[Edit]

@volavka -- dotti, 06:56:08 11/18/03 Tue

Okay. So the Cabal sends the signal via the technicals that gold is going to go down. Institutions and big day traders see the signal and jump on the bandwagon. Is that how it works? Sort of like a self-fulling prophecy?

I noted that even in the face of yesterday's rout of gold, apll gained ground. Not much carnage in the shares that I watch. XCL took a bit of a hit, but rebounded nicely. Wheaton seems to be a darling right now. Do you follow that one?

I have tried to imagine a scenario where gold would go back down below $360 or so. Just can't--short of something like the 30's when ownership was made illegal. We have inflation, war, corrupt markets, corrupt governments. Even China is facing a major problem with inflation. Debt worldwide is totally out of control. Again with China: the government is having to bail out banks for bad loans.

Even if I believed the "recovery" story, I don't think that it would overcome the debt problem.

And the US it seems has become World Enemy #1.

Sojo, I trust that your article was November 17, not March 17. Thanks for posting that. It doesn't seem like sound diplomacy. And. Does anybody really think it will have any effect other than to p___ them o__?

Thanks for sharing your knowledge!

dotti

[Edit]

Relevance and more. -- jomama, 06:52:06 11/18/03 Tue

[BTW, The Pentagon just ordered 3 million gallons of
colloidal silver.]

Found on a list discussing the manufacture and merits
of Colloidal Silver for medicinal use:

The brain has an almost absolute power to form
the body according to what the mind thinks.
Variences [sic] in [medical] treatments have to
do with the fact that no one knows what
99.999999% of their mind is doing or why.

[Variances in investment success have to do with
the fact that no one knows what 99.999999% of
their mind is doing or why. -ed]

Spontaneous remissions and the successes of the
Witchdoctor are rooted there as well. Both cures
and diseases can be instantaneously achieved.
Circumstances are but plausable
excuses.[Justifications] Huge tumors have been
known to vanish over night and come back just as
big the next week. Some people can live in the
midst of the most virulant plague and never get
sick...not just "not sick" because their immune
system is really good at fighting, but not sick
because they never even had to fight. The
disease was irrelevent to their purpose.
[italics mine.]

[And some people can live in the midst of the
multi-level abstractions and mind rapes like, the
"nation", "corporation", "government" and never
take it up because it was irrelevant to their
purpose. -ed]

It can even be said that the scientific
successes [and failures] are a matter of accepted
symbology...that all medicine is magic.

[There is no magic. There's just shit we don't
understand. To paraphrase Arthur C. Clark, any
sufficiently advanced technology looks like
magic. -ed]

Any given symbol never means exactly the same
thing to any other person as we each live in an
entirely different, but similar in appearance,
universe. "Mind" transcends the limits of this
body and this lifetime. Every event, be it the
fight or the surrender..or the 'non event',
serves the larger purpose of your 'root' beings
desire to experience.

For the sake of clarity and perspective,
'mind' contains the brain...not the other way
around.

['Mind' is the third brain, the one that exists
when both halves are connected. The third eye, so
to speak. The eye that when activated can see
thru the fog and into the future etc, etc. -ed]

Brain is the translator and executor, a
computer, so to speak. It doesn't think, it
sorts thought into and out of awareness according
to relevance to the program it's running. [This
is why there's no talking to a "believer"]

The program can be altered. Faith healing,
prayer, hypnosis and so on [yes, even hospitals
and drugs] are methods of altering programs.
Often these things are temporary because the old
program has merely been suspended by permission
and a new one run 'on approval'. [Failure is by
the same reason]

No will can conquer another.
Each is as equally powerful as the next. [No one
can change anothers mind, they can only persuade
it to change itself...IF...it will listen in the
first place.] [italics mine]

Look at the symbology of silver. Rare and
valued but not unobtainable. [available to those
who seek it] True Mirror. [reflection]
Communication and trade. [of thought?]
Conductivity...making connection [best electrical
and thermal conductor of all the metals] Easily
alloyed with or bonded to almost any other metal.
[Interfaces] Noble metal. Moon metal
[Mother...creation. Gold is sun
metal..Father...influence]

[Edit]

Dotti -- volavka, 05:37:46 11/18/03 Tue

It is what you do not see.
Those in the know trade the paper. If you have a trading signal for a sell as shown on yesterdays open, the big funds will jump with the mkt and follow the money flow.

If they don't like the game they'll change the rules, see copper

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/shareholder/notice_to_member.jsp?id=ntm434&archive=2003

[Edit]

Current POG, POS, POP & U$D Live Price -- CHARTs, 22:46:52 11/17/03 Mon

[Edit]

@Tree in the Forest -- Questioner, 21:42:11 11/17/03 Mon

Are you talking about a major event that will close stock and gold markets and divert the attention of the masses like a 911 event? Nothing like smoke and disaster to change the focus channel. Perhaps after this trading hours for gold will be reduced again and they will find out that it was financed by gold so all owners of gold will be terrorists. We certainly live in interesting times!

Walk in Balance, Questioner

[Edit]

Netking & All - Almost Armageddon -- Tree in the Forest, 21:23:26 11/17/03 Mon

Hello Netking and regards to you. Back before summer 2001, I was predicting gold action. I was wrong of course but I believe it was at that time that I predicted the precursor to a run in gold. A run up in POG to take out the shorts followed by a sharp spike down to take out the longs. That would free the yellow metal to run. Today, I was debating whether to buy more gold stock calls or not. I logged on and when I saw the graph of gold at Kitco, it blew my mind. It was exactly what I had envisioned. A sign from God (or at least TPTB). Of course I bought more calls. The time for buying gold is now over. We all know what happens tomorrow. The only question is, will it be dirty or red mercury? It may be hard to tell at first because the effects at least superficially are similar. An explosion with radiation. Good luck to everybody and stay away from large cities.

[Edit]

What next? -- Sojourner, 19:54:24 11/17/03 Mon

According to an article in the Evening Standard, March 17,2003, by Robert Lea - one day before Bush arrives in Britain, his administration has asked all US corporations operating in Britain to return to the US with their jobs. Fears of a trade crisis now looms.

SJ - what could be the purpose of this? I feel sure that Britain isn't too pleased to know that they will lose the income that the corporation employees generate there.

[Edit]

@volavka, et al -- dotti, 18:37:19 11/17/03 Mon

Okay. First, thanks for the answer.

Now. You talk about emotion. But. Aren't all the rational indicators positive for gold? Is there any reason--other than manipulation--that gold would have dropped drastically today?

All the reasons seem to be on the positive side for gold. Without manipulation--which some consider to be a given--what is the downside for gold? Inflation, war, uncertainty, corruption, safe haven, on and on. Low interest rates.

Isn't it just pure manipulation? Is there any other rational reason for the pull back in gold prices?

Thanks for your communications!!!

dotti

[Edit]

Dotti -- volavka, 18:05:25 11/17/03 Mon

Yes.
In reference to todays action and those who think they are bigger than the mkt.

Tom Baldwin: That is the key thing, it's emotional. The bond market, because of the liquidity and way it trades, if you are unemotional and you pick your right spots with timing you'll be able to execute your trades at better prices than if you are emotional about it. You would then save the kind of money you are talking about. I've always found that when I'm in a losing trade, I would like to get out but I know the liquidity isn't there, it's not offered, nobody want's to take the other side of the trade to let me out. So I need to pick my spot where I'm going to get out of my trade rather than just throw up my hands, I can't take it anymore and bid 4,5,6,7,8 and then throw up my hands and take my loss Every time I ever done that the market went my way then immediately went down the other way. I often found that by staying calm and getting out with resolve, continually buying it with patience, which is hard to do when you are losing money. Its not that this is easy.

Moderator: I'd like to quote Tom from an article, dealing with pain thresholds are very difficult, that's why the world developed systems. You try to develop a computerized system that doesn't have feelings and you don't have to deal with emotion. You can blame the system and make adjustments.

[Edit]

@volavka, et al -- dotti, 17:49:44 11/17/03 Mon

Re: wow, sounds like jimmy -- volavka, 13:59:51 11/17/03 Mon

"This sell off was all over the chart based upon someone doing their homework and technical studies."

Okay. I don't do charts or technical studies.

But. Looking at the slide of the dollar, the overseas markets, lack of confidence in mutual funds, etc., war in Iraq, terrorism, threats of inflation, not just here, but in china and the rest of the world--what was the basis for gold to go down?

I just don't see it. volavka, do you have an explanation other than manipulation??? Technicals?

Further: "Long Live M.I.T. education worth gozillions."

volavka, do you have an M.I.T. education? If you do, more power to you.

Oh, well.

Take care, All. Manipulated markets and all.

dotti

[Edit]

Through the looking glass -- volavka, 17:46:22 11/17/03 Mon

lewis carroll:
When I use a word,'' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, ``it means just what I choose it to mean--neither more nor less.''

``The question is,'' said Alice, ``whether you can make words mean so many different things.''

``The question is,'' said Humpty Dumpty, ``which is to be master--that's all.''

[Edit]

Houston we have 3 problems -- volavka, 17:27:38 11/17/03 Mon

1. You've got a ga-zillion paper fiats all forex fiat which compete for the yellow King.
2. rule margin changes in middle of game
3. A PRECIOUS METAL(S) AUAG IN LIMITED SUPPLY.

Demand and supply.
Force delivery will pull the string tight around the pencils neck.

If you rip someones face off (force default) you weed out the whimps.
Go in the Bond pits @ chicago and face Baldwin and you'll understand.
Humpty Dumpty was a big gun until it fell off the wall.

[Edit]

The Pied Piper of Paper Gold is Presently Peeved -- auspec, 15:10:54 11/17/03 Mon

From Sinclair's requests to post:

Gold Market Summary
Gold Community Stampeded
For the Profit of COT Expiring Option writers.
Look at the good side! Each time the Big Boys snooker us at these levels, they actually eliminate the weak hands in the Gold Community.

Today's decline was a pure power play and in my opinion a manipulation by COT option writers for the sole purpose of preventing the strike $400 December gold Calls from expiring in the money.

However, my observation is that the game of expiration is not yet over on the bullish side. In terms of respecting the opposition, I must say that the coordinated selling was quite professional. It certainly appeared to have all the market credentials of a coordinated action.

If this is the crime that I believe it is, there is a U.S. paper trail out there that lies quietly as an NY State smoking gun, the most lethal in the country. The difference between the Gold Cartel and this Gold Community is that we do not talk to each other. Anything we do or don't do is done independently.

Today's market action had the earmarks of coordinated action between gold sellers who transacted on the NY Comex Exchange. If true, that would be a crime in New York State regardless of where on earth the order comes from. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer are you listening?

Those that work together do in fact manipulate in a classic legal sense. Clearly, that gives them an advantage that we do not have or want for that matter. However, since these manipulators have losses behind them, do not concern yourself. Gold will not remain down because the US dollar is hopeless and heading lower.

I have a contact who asked me to inform the Gold Community that he will pay a reward of $US50,000 in gold coins for hard evidence of commercial dealers conspiring to launch actions such as we have seen today. I will personally guarantee his payment.

I would ask that you post this offer on every gold chat site on the Internet. Let millions of people read it so that the person we need will do the right thing and expose these illegal actions. The evidence must be obtained legally so as to be potent. Such evidence is not a mathematical compilation of the repeated anomalies in the marketplace but rather the smoking gun of a conversation, email, or affidavit of a conversation concerning manipulation of the markets.

Eventually, somebody at COT is going to get sick of supporting what I believe is in fact a crime. That person will rise to the circumstance and do his/her civic duty, remembering New York State's definition of manipulation as being "a coordinated attempt to reduce or increase the price of a publicly trading item without taking real individual risk by sales or buys done in a series of increasing or decreasing levels in conspiracy with others doing the same thing in New York State."

I am sick and tired of the so-called professionals working together in order to run the US gold futures market for their own best interests at the cost of your hard won profits.

If you trade on the Comex Gold Exchange in New York State and handle yourself the way you do in the international cash gold market, then in all probability you have committed a crime while leaving a hard copy, smoking paper trail for all to see.

On one side of the gold equation, you have articulate gold bears posing as bullish gold advisors panning gold at every opportunity. On the other side are commercial traders of gold (COT) working together to run the gold market in New York State in order to rip you off royally. These two forces represent two sides of a merciless gauntlet that you are running. My job is to get you, the Gold Community, to the other side in one piece.

I don't just write about gold I actually do it. I did not come here on your behalf to run but rather to defend our interests. Those of you who know me realize that I have spent many millions in legal fees on matters of principle only.

Coordinated manipulation of the gold market in the US - especially in New York State - is theft pure and simple.

The gold manipulators are not brain surgeons and their weakness is the paper trail which passes through many hands and simply never disappears.

Your Watchman,
Jim

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cartel takes its Best Shot
However this Play is directly into the Currency Wind.
It is all a Bluff!

In order to save their bacon the Gold Cartel of Common Interest is spitting directly into the currency wind. I have to compliment the opposition because this is as gutsy a play as I have ever seen on anything. This is a last ditch attempt to scatter the gold community, you. This is decision time. Are you going to take to fear and flight or are you going to simply shut off the machine, put 100 MPH tape over you mouth, stuff cotton in your ears and pull the cord of your telephone out of the wall while stamping up and down on your sell phone. If you have no margin commitments then the answer is simple Do as above. I have done 1000 options so far and intend to attempt to call the Cartel's hand. We are facing in my opinion the best bluff of the past 20 years. I actually compliment those crudes for their courage but there is no money behind it. If this gold community would show 50% of the moxie the Cartel does, gold would close at $529 before December 31st. Have you the right stuff? If so then demonstrate it with me and lets run these guys straight to $433. I came here to fight, not to run! The selling is a total bluff. Repeat after me – BLUFF! Do not open the paid for gold advisors missives as they will be herding the cowards. Do not browse the gold sites that love to publish ever opinion even if written by buffoons. Stand with me if you have no margin worries. If you do shame on you.

Jim Sinclair

END

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Comments: NOW, he deccides the market is rigged........??? I'll say it once more:

RUN IT HONEST OR SHUT IT DOWN!!!

Playing w paper is playing w fire & the kids following this Piper are getting toasted. DELIVERY is the only answer. Sinbad will likely come out smelling like a rose here, he's that gutsy and talanted, & I sincerely hope he accomplishes his missive of spiking the POG.

Just a little hint here on Mr. Gold. If he was a Colonist during the American Revolution he would have advocated taking on the Red Coats in formation..........head on, flags waving and definitely a few pipes playing. Playing by the enemy's rules only prolongs the war and leads to unnecessary casualties.

mr v...........what say U? Make em deliver? Who's gonna collect the Au?

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wow, sounds like jimmy -- volavka, 13:59:51 11/17/03 Mon

is going to pop a vessel.

This sell off was all over the chart based upon someone doing their homework and technical studies.

Long Live M.I.T. education worth gozillions.

Dr Hwang say, you hung fat, lose weight or pop vessel.

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400 gold call expiration -- qwerty, 13:12:16 11/17/03 Mon

===
Today's decline was a pure power play and in my opinion a manipulation by COT option writers for the sole purpose of preventing the strike $400 December gold Calls from expiring in the money.
===

i forgot about option expiration

probably a good time for the stalker to come in and buy gold up knowing there will be COT sellers unloading ...

if they wait until after expiration, the COT sellers may disappear

anybody who plays option without being aware of the manipulation by the call sellers is naive ...

i did buy options many years back on some stocks ... gee, was i stupid about this stuff ... most of the options i ever bought i was able to get out of them with very little ... a few i took a relatively small hit on but it was money i kissed goodbye when i bought them ... if i was a little smarter and not greedy, i could have made money ... i will just stay away from them

i wouldn't touch anything that is time dependent unless i didn't mind losing the money - i consider it just gambling money no matter how great the technicals are ... unless one accumulates the savvy, know how and experience, they are a bad deal

there are many people with bank accounts stuffed with fiat and just like the thrill of playing even if they lose

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Red Devil -- volavka, 12:01:27 11/17/03 Mon

or PINK IMP.

http://english.pravda.ru/science/19/95/380/11293_Diamond.html

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questioner -- volavka, 11:52:09 11/17/03 Mon

apll; no resistance: forget .60
potential upward of 6.00 +
looking for acquization.

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Mini me or Yao Ming -- volavka, 10:37:01 11/17/03 Mon

http://www.ivanhoe-mines.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=71279&_Title=IVANHOE-MINES-SHARES-TO-BEGIN-TRADING-ON-U.S.-NASDAQ-STOCK-MARKET

Tall and strong...

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hey mr cryptic :) -- number six, 10:31:43 11/17/03 Mon

You scared me for a second there. I was thinking amchitka island was some seismic hotspot above Japan which had gone apedroppings... was ready to buy cisco and sony puts when you were talking about waves. What's actually going on?

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