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Subject: Oil orice likely to stay very low in the years to come


Author:
Knuit Holt
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Date Posted: 18:06:50 10/20/17 Fri



The Oil Price Likely to Stay very Low in the Years to Come

Around 1950 the oil price lay far below 20 dollars for each barrel. It rose unevenly to 120 dollars in 1980. Then there was a steady decline to below 20 again in 1999 the second year of the finacial crisis. After that the price rose to an all times top of 180 in 2010, Since them the price sank to a new bottom level of 27 in 2014.

In the time since then until october 2017 it has risen to around 55 and seems to fluctuate stably somewhat around this level.

The main force behind the steep rising periods have been the fact that the production capacity of oil from developed field was been just a little higher than the demand on the World market, and that the OPEC cartel that was furnishing much of the needed oil held the production some lower than the actual market demand and gradually elevated the price.

Another force was a gradual rise in market need.

A main force behind each of the steep declines were economical crises that had the effect that the luxury element of the market demand disappeared and the total demand sank below the offers.

The decline in oil price since 2010 is also due to a massive rise in production capacity that by 2017 far exceeds the market demand especially from shale oil resources outside OPEC.

It is also due to a conciderable rise in production of natural gas, nuclear power and alternative energy sources, and a shift from use of oil to these resouces where that is technically feasible and ecomomically favourable.

It is also caused by the technological development that have made the use of any energy resource more economical and lowered the demand for oil.

The competition from other energy producers have made the traditional strategy of OPEC for keeping the oil prices high mostly useless, so That OPEC has lost the ability to dictate the oil price globally.

As by 2017 there is a steady increase in use of natural gas, nuclear power and a variety of green energy resources. New technology still provides more economical use of energy. Furthermorem, the world population is in a process of stabilization and seems to begin declining before long, so there will not be more consumers of oil.

Huge, so far undeveloped, oil fields have been discovered, and mainly in countries with feeble economy that are eager to get their oil onto the market. Also great gas fields have been discovered that are likely to be developed in the years to come.

The development of the fundamental factors from 2017 and foreward will therefore make the basic demand for oil decline heavily, and the added luxury demand is also likely to decline.

If one bases the analysis on the mentioned fundamental factors, the oil price is likely to be stable for many years to come, with periodic variations, around the price of mid 2017, namely 55 dollar per barrel, but with a possible correction for general inflation.

But the world economy is far from stable, and economical crises are likely to reoccur, and those will take away much of the luxury demand in long periods and cause the oil price to decline below that dictated by the fundamental factors.

The climate policy also dictates a decrease in use of fossil energy, wich also will have a negative effect on oil prices.

The real average oil price in the years to come will therefor likely be far below 50 dollars per barrel,

By Knut Holt

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Norway soon without industry and sinking into powerty and misery

Look to Nprway and learn how things should not be done, and Norway does exactly that which the globalist Clinton, Bush and Obama regimes have done for decades. The industy in Norway has declned all the time worse than any other western country, except for harvesting the oil fields.

Now the oil fields have lost nearly all profitability, Norway is living off saved assets, for the time being still modestly well, but the industry is still declining.

But the saved assets are running out, and Norway is heading without any hope towards a state of powerty and misery. The misery has already stroken a substatial part of the population. Another part holds the misery preliminary at distance by establishing steadily greater dept.

By Knut Holt

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