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Date Posted: 00:56:41 02/28/03 Fri
Author: Àäìèí
Subject: "äëÿ ïîääåðæàíèÿ ÷èñëåííîñòè íàñåëåíèÿ..."

Ìðàçü äîâåëà íàøó Ðîäèíó è íàöèþ äî ïëà÷åâíîãî ñîñòîÿíèÿ. È ÷òî òåïåðü? À òåïåðü ïðîøó âíèìàòåëüíî îçíàêîìèòüñÿ.

Çàñåëåíèå Ðîññèè èíîñòðàíöàìè áóäåò ïðîèñõîäèòü ïîä òàêóþ âîò ïåñíþ, íà÷àëî êîòîðîé âåðíî, à âîò äàëüøå...:

http://www.temadnya.ru/ (íà ñàéòå â òåêñòå - ññûëêè, çàâòðà ñì. â èõ àðõèâå çà 28 ôåâðàëÿ)

Èç î÷åðåäíîãî ïðîãíîçà ÷èñëåííîñòè íàñåëåíèÿ Çåìëè (World Population Prospects), ïîäãîòîâëåííîãî ñïåöèàëèñòàìè ÎÎÍ, ìû óçíàëè, ÷òî ê ñåðåäèíå âåêà ðîññèÿí ìîæåò ñòàòü â äâà ðàçà ìåíüøå. Ïðîãíîçû ïÿòè-øåñòèëåòíåé äàâíîñòè îáåùàëè áîëåå îïòèìèñòè÷åñêóþ öèôðó: ïîðÿäêà 110 ìèëëèîíîâ ÷åëîâåê. Îñòàëüíîå ÷åëîâå÷åñòâî òàêæå íå áóäåò ðàñòè ñòîëü ñòðåìèòåëüíî, êàê ïðåäñêàçûâàëè åùå íåäàâíî.

Ïðè÷èíà êîððåêòèðîâêè - ýïèäåìèÿ ÑÏÈÄà è ñíèæåíèå òåìïîâ ðîæäàåìîñòè, îáíàðóæèâøååñÿ íå òîëüêî â áîëüøèíñòâå âûñîêîðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí, íî è â ìåíåå ðàçâèòûõ òîæå.

Èçâåñòíî, ÷òî íà ïðîòÿæåíèè íåñêîëüêèõ äåñÿòèëåòèé ïîñëå Âòîðîé ìèðîâîé âîéíû íàñåëåíèå íàøåé ñòðàíû íåïðåðûâíî ðîñëî.  1955 ãîäó áûëà âîññòàíîâëåíà åãî äîâîåííàÿ ÷èñëåííîñòü, à ê 1992 îíà óâåëè÷èëàñü åùå íà òðåòü. Ïîñëå 1992 ãîäà íàñåëåíèå Ðîññèè ñîêðàùàåòñÿ.  öåëîì, ïî îôèöèàëüíûì äàííûì, çà èñòåêøåå äåñÿòèëåòèå ýòà óáûëü ïðåâûñèëà 4,8 ìèëëèîíà ÷åëîâåê, èëè 3,2%, â òî âðåìÿ êàê çà ïðåäøåñòâóþùåå äåñÿòèëåòèå îíî óâåëè÷èëîñü íà 8,7 ìèëëèîíà ÷åëîâåê, èëè íà 6,2%.

Ïåðâûìè äàííóþ òåìó âçÿëè íà âîîðóæåíèå âñåâîçìîæíûå "ïàòðèîòè÷åñêèå ñèëû". Îò íèõ äîñòàëîñü è "àíòèíàðîäíîìó ðåæèìó" çà ñïàèâàíèå íàðîäà è óõóäøåíèå óñëîâèé æèçíè, è "ìèðîâîìó ïðàâèòåëüñòâó", êîòîðîå çëîáíî ãíåòåò Ðîññèþ, è òåëåâèäåíèþ ñ åãî çàïàäíîé çàðàçîé. À ðåøàòü ïðîáëåìó ïðåäëàãàëîñü, â ÷àñòíîñòè, è âîò òàê.

Ó÷åíûå-äåìîãðàôû, îäíàêî, íå ñîãëàñèëèñü ñ áîðöàìè çà íàðîäíîå äåëî è îáúÿñíèëè, ÷òî øèðîêî ðàñïðîñòðàíåííîå ìíåíèå î ðåçêîì ïàäåíèè ðîæäàåìîñòè â Ðîññèè â 1990-å ãîäû êàê ñëåäñòâèè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî è ñîöèàëüíîãî êðèçèñà â êîðíå íå âåðíî. Ìèðîâîé îïûò íå îïðàâäûâàåò òàêèõ îæèäàíèé: ìíîãèå âïîëíå áëàãîïîëó÷íûå ñòðàíû ñîâñåì íåäàâíî ïðîøëè ÷åðåç òîò æå äåñÿòèëåòíèé ïåðèîä ðåçêîãî ïàäåíèÿ ðîæäàåìîñòè, è îíî íèãäå íå ñìåíèëîñü ðîñòîì.

À òÿãîòû è ëèøåíèÿ 1990-õ ãîäîâ áûëè íå ïðè÷èíàìè, à ñâîåîáðàçíûì ñîöèàëüíûì êàòàëèçàòîðîì, ñòèìóëèðóþùèì äåéñòâèå äåìîãðàôè÷åñêèõ òåíäåíöèé, çàëîæåííûõ ãîðàçäî ðàíüøå. Ê ÷èñëó òàêîâûõ êàê ðàç è îòíîñèòñÿ ñîêðàùåíèå ðîæäàåìîñòè êàê îäíî èç ïîñëåäñòâèé óðáàíèçàöèè, ýìàíñèïàöèè æåíùèí è èçìåíåíèÿ ðîëè ñåìüè.

Íàïîìíèì, ÷èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ îïðåäåëÿåòñÿ òðåìÿ îñíîâíûìè ôàêòîðàìè: ðîæäàåìîñòüþ, ñìåðòíîñòüþ è ìèãðàöèåé. ßñíî, ÷òî íåâîçìîæíîñòü ïîääåðæèâàòü õîòÿ áû ïîñòîÿííóþ ÷èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ â Ðîññèè çà ñ÷åò îäíîãî òîëüêî áàëàíñà ðîæäåíèé è ñìåðòåé çàñòàâëÿåò îáðàòèòüñÿ ê òðåòüåìó ôàêòîðó.

Åñëè ðàíüøå ãîñóäàðñòâî ïûòàëîñü ëèøü ñòèìóëèðîâàòü ðîæäàåìîñòü, óâåëè÷èâàÿ ðàçìåð ïîñîáèé íà äåòåé, ïðåäîñòàâëÿÿ äîïîëíèòåëüíûå ëüãîòû ìíîãîäåòíûì ñåìüÿì, òî òåïåðü ó íåãî åñòü öåëàÿ êîíöåïöèÿ.

Òîëüêî âîò è íàïðàâëåííîå ïðîòèâ ïîòåíöèàëüíûõ èììèãðàíòîâ çàêîíîäàòåëüñòâî, è âðàæäåáíîñòü (òóò êîíå÷íî â òåêñòå ññûëêà íà ñàéò ÄÏÍÈ)ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê ÷óæàêàì, è ïðîáëåìû, ïîðîæäàåìûå èäóùèì íà ãëàçàõ èçìåíåíèåì ýòíè÷åñêîãî ñîñòàâà ðîññèÿí, òîæå åñòü.

Ìåæäó òåì, êàê îïÿòü æå ïîäñ÷èòàëè ñïåöèàëèñòû, äëÿ ïîääåðæàíèÿ ÷èñëåííîñòè íàñåëåíèÿ íà ñîâðåìåííîì óðîâíå çà 50 ëåò â Ðîññèþ äîëæíî âúåõàòü 35 - 69 ìëí ìèãðàíòîâ ; äëÿ ðîñòà íàñåëåíèÿ èõ ÷èñëî äîëæíî áûòü 76-117 ìëí. Ýòî çíà÷èò îò 500 òûñ. äî 1,2 ìèëëèîíà ÷åëîâåê â ãîä. À ïîêà íà ãîä ïðèõîäèòñÿ âñå ïîðÿäêà 200 òûñ. ïåðåñåëåíöåâ.

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