Iraq & The Market -- WorldTradeStocks.com

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Subject: Iraq & The Market

Author:
Lussenheide

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Date Posted: 19:21:01 02/19/03 Wed

Markets continue to be on hold, waiting for more direction based upon the Iraq situation. I monitor the Rydex Ratio which measures the ratio of holdings at Rydex Mutual Funds that are in their bullish index funds vs. the holdings that are in their negatively correlated bearish index funds. Currently the ratio of money in bearish funds is at a historical high. On a contrarian basis this is very bullish, (remember that when the masses are in overwhelming consensus either up or down they are almost always wrong!)

Concerning the Iraq situation, it may be that any USA led invasion could occur somewhere around the first day of March. This is a period of "New Moon" or totally moonless nights. The air campaign on Iraq in 1991 started on Jan.16th which also was a new moon . The reason for this was to make US aircraft all that harder to track, in addition, ground movements made at night are harder to recon as well.

Historically the military has considered the phase of the moon for nighttime operations. The Pearl Harbor attack, Dec. 7th ,1941 happened on a full moon as well as the D-Day invasion on June 6th, 1944. In the era before GPS satellite positioning , Awacs radar planes, and computer coordination, air forces and ground troops needed the additonal light of the full moon to operate efficiently en mass. By contrast the Enola Gay, took off, and flying alone dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima on a moonless new moon on August 8th, 1945.

If the USA does not take advantage of this new moon window, it will have to wait another 28 days for the next new moon. I consider the odds of an invasion during this lunar cycle to be high and certainly this will have tremendous impact on all of the financial markets.

Bill Lussenheide - An Invitation To Learn More http://www.InvestmentWarrior.com

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