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| Sunday, May 17, 04:55:52pm | [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, [8], 9, 10 ] |
| Subject: In 2004, card volumes for all vendors would grow even more, by 16%, to 930 million units, Schlumberger says. SIM shipments would increase by 10%, while the banking; and the ID, transit and pay-TV market segments would both increase by more than 20%. | |
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Author: Schlumberger Forecasts Growth In Smart Card Shipments 17/4/03 |
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Date Posted: Thursday, April 17, 01:56:52pm Schlumberger Forecasts Growth In Smart Card Shipments Smart card vendor Schlumberger today released its annual forecast of smart card shipments, which showed demand for microprocessor cards will remain healthy through 2004, though price pressure continues, at least for this year. The vendor estimated industrywide microprocessor card shipments increased 13% in 2002 to 725 million units. That followed a drop of 11% in 2001, thanks to the collapse in demand for subscriber identity module cards for mobile phones. The vendor predicted volumes would grow by 11% this year to more than 800 million units, fueled by double-digit growth in banking cards, as well as ID, transit, and pay-TV cards. While shipments of SIMs will increase by only 7% to 480 million units in 2003, many of these will be high-end cards, with 64 kilobytes and even 128K of rewriteable memory, cards that carry USIM applications for third generation networks, as well as a large percentage of cards that support Java Card software. In 2004, card volumes for all vendors would grow even more, by 16%, to 930 million units, Schlumberger says. SIM shipments would increase by 10%, while the banking; and the ID, transit and pay-TV market segments would both increase by more than 20%. In the later categories, demand will continue to heat up for banking cards that carry applications that comply with international EMV specifications, as an industry-imposed deadline approaches, says Schlumberger. And, greater security concerns among governments and corporations would stoke demand for chip-based ID cards that control network and physical access. This budding market will translate into "very significant" shipments in a few years, Schlumberger says. Overall prices, however, would not increase this year, says the vendor. That is at least an improvement over the previous two years, during which prices plunged, especially for SIM cards. But, shrinking capacity in the semiconductor industry may mean chip prices will be on the rise, says the vendor. Schlumberger’s projections are annually considered among the most optimistic in the industry. And, the vendor didn’t disappoint this year, especially when it comes to the percentage of microprocessor cards supporting Java Card and multiple applications. For Java Card, the vendor estimated 27% of all SIM, banking, ID and other microprocessor cards shipped last year carried the software, which is designed to allow issuers to buy their cards and applications from multiple vendors. This year that percentage will increase to 35% and next year, 41%. For SIM cards, more than half will be Java-enabled this year, and two-thirds by 2005, according to Schlumberger, which developed the industry’s first Java Card more than five years ago. The software can add a couple dollars to the price of a SIM card. One source at rival card vendor Gemplus put the figure for Java-based SIMs this year at half of Schlumberger’s estimates, or about 25% to 30%. But Olivier Piou, head of Schlumberger’s volume products division, stands by the figure. "It’s now becoming well understood what Java Card can do," he says. "Most people want Java Card to guarantee them a future." The vendor also predicts multiapplication cards will account for more than half of all microprocessor cards this year. The vendor defines the category broadly to include SIM toolkit cards, which store menus on the SIMs for value-added services and e-purses that run on top of chip-based debit cards. It also includes SIMs that combine second-generation GSM applications with USIM applications for 3G networks. While operators that issue the SIMs may not be ready to widely roll out 3G for a few years and their customers may not be ready to buy a 3G handset for the same amount of time, the operators want the application there for when this happens, says Piou. ( 2003-04-17 ) [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] |