Rhino's Undeserved Oscar Predictions -- Rhinotainment

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Date Posted: 14:13:56 02/07/04 Sat
Author: The Rhino
Subject: Rhino's Undeserved Oscar Predictions

Welcome to Rhino's Undeserved Oscar Predictions! You may ask yourself, "What does 'Undeserved' mean?" While I may have seen many, many films this year, I have not seen many that were nominated. With that in mind, I don't deserve to do an Oscar predictions column. But I'm doing one anyway, so if you don't like it, seek out the professional critic of your choice and place your bets on their predictions. If you want to continue reading these predictions, however, then prepare for an interesting ride.

My predictions will be based on the films I have seen and the buzz surrounding the films that I haven't. I'm only going to predict the major categories, as Lord of the Rings: Return of the King will likely clean up in the technical categories anyway. So without further ado, let's undeservedly predict the winners!

BEST ACTOR
* Johnny Depp - The Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
* Ben Kingsley - The House of Sand and Fog (Did Not See)
* Jude Law - Cold Mountain (Did Not See)
* Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
* Sean Penn - Mystic River
Winner: My prediction for this one is kind of a political one. I think Sean Penn will win this one for a couple of reasons. 1) Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, Penn has been nominated three times already and has yet to win. He was truly excellent as the tortured father of a dead daughter and Oscar voters seem to love roles like this. 2) He is actually showing up this year. This will be his first time attending the Oscars, as he wants to support this film moreso than the other films he was nominated for in the past. I also seem to recall that he has boycotted the past ceremonies because he doesn't like the whole Hollywood scene. Who knows with a wild card like Penn. I did love his role in this film and it would have been my pick otherwise. Murray was also excellent, but his delivery is so deadpan that I think it hurts him in the long run.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
* Benecio Del Toro - 21 Grams
* Djimon Honsou - In America (Did Not See)
* Tim Robbins - Mystic River
* Ken Watanabe - The Last Samurai
Winner: I have a pretty good grasp on this one, since I have seen all but one of the films. I really want Alec Baldwin to win this one, as his old-school, hard knocks casino manager in The Cooler was a dramatic return to form for Baldwin after years of doing schlock roles in dumb comedies. He was the reason to watch a somewhat disappointing movie. For that, he deserves the Oscar. I wouldn't be upset to see Robbins or Del Toro take it home, however.

BEST ACTRESS
* Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider (Did Not See)
* Diane Keaton - Something's Gotta Give
* Samantha Morton - In America (Did Not See)
* Charlize Theron - Monster
* Naomi Watts - 21 Grams
Winner: If Charlize Theron doesn't take home this award (especially if Diane Keaton does) then I may boycott the remainder of the show. I never would have thought that she had a role like this in her, basically because I thought she was just a fair actress to begin with. I can't recall the last time I saw a performance by a woman this amazing. Roger Ebert calls her role "one of the best of all time", which is a huge statement for the huge critic to make. I would tend to agree.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog (Did Not See)
* Patricia Clarkson - Pieces of April (Did Not See)
* Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
* Holly Hunter - Thirteen (Did Not See)
* Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain
Winner: Obviously, this is a tough one for me to call, but again I am going to go with the buzz and predict Renee Zellweger to take it home. I have seen clips of her performance on television and it appears to be a remarkable turn for her. Deep southern American dialect is a tough one to realistically pull off, but she really seemed to do it in spades. Besides, she's been nominated the last two years in a row, so I think third time's the charm for a deserving actress like herself.

BEST DIRECTOR
* Katia Lund & Fernando Meirelles - City of God (Did Not See)
* Peter Jackson - Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
* Sofia Coppola - Lost in Translation
* Peter Weir - Master and Commander: Far Side of the World (Did Not See)
* Clint Eastwood - Mystic River
Winner: This award used to automatically guarantee that the winner would also win Best Picture. That hasn't been the case in the last few years. I think tradition could return this year as I think Clint Eastwood will take home the award and will win Best Picture as well. Who would have thought that a film without a single special effect could be interesting and emotional! Savor the thought!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
* Finding Nemo
* Brother Bear (Did Not See)
* The Triplets of Bellville (Did Not See)
Winner: Brother Bear was a flop at the box office, Triplets was a limited release and Finding Nemo took home more money than any other film this year, worldwide. Who do you think will win* Nemo deserves to win. It was hard to find another film with this much heart this past year.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
* Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor (Did Not See)
* Braulio Mantovani - City of God (Did Not See)
* Walsh/Boyens/Jackson - LotR: Return of the King
* Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
* Gary Ross - Seabiscuit
Winner: I forsee and underdog victory in this category, as everyone I know and every critic I have read say that Splendor is one of the best scripts in recent memory. Many predicted that Paul Giamatti and Hope Davis would be nominated for their roles in this film as well, but, alas, they were not.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
* Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions (Did Not See)
* Steve Knight - Dirty Pretty Things (Did Not See)
* Andrew Stanton - Finding Nemo
* The Sheridans - In America (Did Not See)
* Sofia Coppola - Lost in Translation
Winner: While I loved the script to Translation, I don't think I laughed harder this year or was more endeared by a script than by Nemo. While many frown upon the box office king winning awards, this one deserves the awards because it was one of the best films of the year, in my opinion.

And finally�

BEST PICTURE
* LotR: Return of the King
* Lost in Translation
* Master & Commander: Far Side of the World (Did Not See)
* Mystic River
* Seabiscuit
Winner: I think this year is all about Mystic River. I just think it is untouchable. And for the life of me, I don't understand why Seabiscuit got as many nominations as it did. I think Finding Nemo deserves a spot in the Best Picture race compared to Seabiscuit and, from what I hear, Master and Commander.

So there you go! When all my predictions come true, make sure that you remember ol' Rhino told you so. See you on the red carpet! Or not.

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Replies:

Will the day come when a voice over wins an Oscar -- Walt K, 13:59:50 02/18/04 Wed
- Re: Will the day come when a voice over wins an Oscar -- The Rhino, 17:28:55 02/18/04 Wed