for war---An immediate start---War starting March 7-10--War in mid or late March--War in April -- ERG trade data forum

[ Show ]

Support VoyForums

[ Shrink ]

VoyForums Announcement: Programming and providing support for this service has been a labor of love since 1997. We are one of the few services online who values our users' privacy, and have never sold your information. We have even fought hard to defend your privacy in legal cases; however, we've done it with almost no financial support -- paying out of pocket to continue providing the service. Due to the issues imposed on us by advertisers, we also stopped hosting most ads on the forums many years ago. We hope you appreciate our efforts.

Show your support by donating any amount. (Note: We are still technically a for-profit company, so your contribution is not tax-deductible.) PayPal Acct: Feedback:

Donate to VoyForums (PayPal):

[ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, [2], 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ]

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Date Posted: 04:09:41 03/02/03 Sun
Author: scenarios for war out of paper
Subject: for war---An immediate start---War starting March 7-10--War in mid or late March--War in April

Name: A fool and his money
Location: Sydney, NSW Australia
Date: Saturday, March 1, 2003 at 12:00:00 PM
Subject: Iraq Timetable for ?
Comments:
Article in saturday paper - regarding possible timetable scenarios. Looks like the market is going to continue in a trading range until this is sort out. Up one day, down the next.

"When could a war begin, and how would it unfold?
The United States Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has declared that the US-British coalition now has enough firepower in the Gulf region to begin an invasion whenever the US President, George Bush, and Britain's Prime Minister, Tony Blair, order it.
Yet it is clear that the US and Britain do not yet have all their forces in place, and that there are serious downsides to beginning the invasion at such a premature point. So what are the options, and the pros and cons of each?

An immediate start
Why not surprise Saddam Hussein? Beginning a war while United Nations inspectors continue their work and the UN continues to look for a peaceful outcome would have huge diplomatic costs, but it would have military appeal if it caught elite Iraqi forces and the regime napping.

Coalition forces already have nearly 1000 combat aircraft in the theatre. That is not as many as in Desert Storm, but today's aircraft are much better equipped with precision weaponry and thus more effective.
But this approach seems unlikely. Forces now in the combat theatre are too small for the mission ahead, which must include not only defeating Republican Guard divisions but protecting oilfields, finding weapons of mass destruction and providing humanitarian relief to the Iraqi population.

War starting March 7-10
Elements of the 4th US Mechanised Infantry Division and the 101st Air Assault Division would be in place; British forces would be closer to nearing their projected strength of about 40,000. Coalition strength would approach 200,000 troops, in contrast to just over 150,000 now. This timing would also precede the full moon, meaning that in the early morning hours night attacks could profit from true darkness(assuming Iraq's main electricity grids were taken down). Temperatures would still be about 21 degrees even at midday, easing the strain on infantry troops in particular.
But this has two big problems. Firstly, it may not be consistent with the emerging Bush-Blair strategy of giving diplomacy a few more weeks. Secondly, the 4th Mechanised Infantry and 101st Air Assault divisions would not be up to full strength.

War in mid or late March
Nearly all coalition forces might have reached the combat theatre. Coalition forces would be approaching 250,000, about the size discussed recently as appropriate.
Mr Blair and Mr Bush would also have had time to play out their diplomatic strategy. The period is also still relatively cool in Baghdad, with high temperatures approaching 27 degrees. It is the time of the full moon. But that may not pose a big problem if the early days emphasised high-altitude bombing and ground force operations in open terrain, where US-British forces have enormous advantages.

War in April
The advantages are primarily diplomatic, although waiting would allow for complete military deployment and training. Baghdad daytime temperatures would often surpass 27 degrees, but the night would still be cool, allowing soldiers in chemical gear to operate effectively.
War in the northern autumn
It seems the furthest thing from the minds of Mr Blair and Mr Bush, but should diplomatic concerns seem to argue for it, troops could spend the northern summer in the Gulf and fight in the autumn.

My money is on the middle option: a war beginning about March 17."

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]