The next day or so will be telltale in terms of whether or not the market has the potential of holding and rallying or whether it�s going to break down and do some testing of lower levels. -- ERG trade data forum

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Date Posted: 01:30:48 03/04/03 Tue
Author: so we need to get above that area. On the S&P 500 initially we have to back through the old 840 resistance level which was broken as well, and then through the 852-3 area.
Subject: The next day or so will be telltale in terms of whether or not the market has the potential of holding and rallying or whether it�s going to break down and do some testing of lower levels.

Harry Boxer's Technical Trading Diary: Miserable Showing After Strong Start
Monday, March 3, 2003
By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader
(www.thetechtrader.com)

The market started off with a bang, gapped up, went to nominal new rally highs on the Nasdaq 100, but met resistance at the Jan 29 high. The S&P 500 similarly got to a double-top from the prior highs over the last few weeks and backed off as well.

The indices then experienced a sharp back-off in the morning. The market stabilized into the lunch hour, and then, when they couldn�t rally, broke downward through support and kept sliding the rest of the afternoon. Only a little late firming avoided closing at the lows for the day.

Net on the day it wasn�t very bad, but considering the strong start the market ended up poorly. The Dow was down 53, 6 1/3 on the S&P 500, 17 on the Nasdaq Composite and 18 2/3 on the 100. The Nasdaq was pressured heavily today by the SOX Index, down nearly 12, or about 4 � percent.

Advance-declines managed to hold pretty even on New York but were down about nearly 400 more on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 7 to 4 negative on New York and about 3 � to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Total volume was 1.15 billion on New York and about 1.2 billion on Nasdaq.

A review of my personal board showed a very mixed picture. ImClone, up 1.02 today, led the board, and only three or four other stocks managed to get into the plus column and only by very small fractions.

There were no losers of as much as a point. Losers were led by market leaders eBay down .87, Amgen down .79 and IBM .62

Reviewing the chart patterns, the pullback that occurred today was a sharp one and pulled right back to the rising bottoms line off the Feb 12 low. So far the channel that appears to be forming remains intact unless we break down from here tomorrow and is certainly a possibility.

Overhead resistance is now back up through 1000-02 area on the NDX that they had broken out through and broke down back through today, so we need to get above that area. On the S&P 500 initially we have to back through the old 840 resistance level which was broken as well, and then through the 852-3 area.

If we do that the indices have a chance of holding the up channels & snapping back. But net on the day it was a very poor start to the week. The next day or so will be telltale in terms of whether or not the market has the potential of holding and rallying or whether it�s going to break down and do some testing of lower levels.

Good trading!

Harry

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