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Date Posted: 23:09:20 06/12/10 Sat
Author: Don Johnson
Subject: 2010 Early King Run Escapement Projection - 05/12/2010

Date Count Cumulative %MEG
Jun/2010
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-21
June-20
Jun-19 400 8,008 151%
Jun-18 500 7,508 142%
Jun-17 500 7,008 132%
Jun-16 500 6,508 123%
Jun-15 500 6,008 113%
Jun-14 500 5,508 104%
Jun-13 500 5,008 94%
Jun-12 500 4,508 85%

Date Count Cumulative %MEG
Jun-11 533 4,008 76%
Jun-10 635 3,475 65%
Jun-09 592 2,840 53%
Jun-08 572 2,248 42%
Jun-07 215 1,676 32%
Jun-06 259 1,461 28%
Jun-05 266 1,202 23%
Jun-04 165 936 18%
Jun-03 32 771 15%
Jun-02 15 739 14%
Jun-01 25 724 13.1%
May-31 24 699 13%
May-30 36 675 12.7%
May-29 36 639




Date Count Cumulative Notes
Jun-30-09 197 11,334
Jun-29 201 11,137
Jun-28 277 10,936
Jun-27 276 10,659
Jun-26 488 10,383
Jun-25 443 9,895
Jun-24 453 9,452
Jun-23 285 8,999
Jun-22 355 8,714
Jun-21 238 8,359
Jun-20 193 8,121
Jun-19 156 7,928
Jun-18 136 7,772
Jun-17 298 7,636
Jun-16 290 7,338
Jun-15 116 7,048
Jun-14 357 6,932
Jun-13 514 6,575
Jun-12 452 6,061
Jun-30/08 497 15,355
Jun-29 632 14,858
Jun-28 343 14,226
Jun-27 328 13,883
Jun-26 303 13,555
Jun-25 288 13,252
Jun-24 245 12,964
Jun-23 144 12,719
Jun-22 273 12,575
Jun-21 196 12,302
Jun-20 267 12,106
Jun-19 284 11,839
Jun-18 212 11,555
Jun-17 288 11,343
Jun-16 302 11,055
Jun-15 610 10,753
Jun-14 956 10,143
Jun-13 824 9,187
Jun-12 1,047 8,363
Jun-30/07 567 15,904
Jun-29 434 15,337
Jun-28 641 14,903
Jun-27 320 14,262
Jun-26 250 13,942
Jun-25 195 13,692
Jun-24 276 13,497
Jun-23 485 13,221
Jun-22 320 12,736
Jun-21 283 12,416
Jun-20 282 12,133
Jun-19 486 11,851
Jun-18 270 11,365
Jun-17 470 11,095
Jun-16 494 10,625
Jun-15 698 10,131
Jun-14 666 9,433
Jun-13 716 8,767
Jun-12 724 8,051
Jun-30/06 704 23,326
Jun-29 873 22,622
Jun-28 578 21,749
Jun-27 553 21,171
Jun-26 369 20,618
Jun-25 562 20,249
Jun-24 763 19,687
Jun-23 657 18,924
Jun-22 797 18,267
Jun-21 612 17,470
Jun-20 1,046 16,858
Jun-19 901 15,812
Jun-18 1,167 14,911
Jun-17 1,730 13,744
Jun-16 1,099 12,014
Jun-15 1,196 10,915
Jun-14 688 9,719
Jun-13 835 9,031
Jun-12 727 8,196










































http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/Fishcounts/index.cfm/FA/main.displayResults

The above charts show the Kenai River escaping 8,506 kings between June 12-14, in three days.
8,506 total kings div. by 12 days = 709 kings per day average escaping between June 12-14, 2006 - 2009.

The June 3rd, 2010 shut-down on the Kenai River was the (earliest on record) in-season action ever taken by the ADF&G.
Since the last 4 years show an average of 709 kings escaping per day, it appears that the Kenai River will reach its minimum king salmon
escapement goal before June 14th. The above charts uses a below average escapement of 500 kings per day during this period and predicts
that the river will reach its minimum king escapement by June 14th. If the river achieves a normal escapement of 709 kings per day it will achieve
its minimum escapement goal even sooner. This run is beginning to look a lot like the 1999 early run of Kenai kings where the ADF&G did not
liberalize the sport-fishery on June 16th, when it could have. Without liberalizing the fishery there was an escapement was 2,876 kings
over the upper end goal of 14,400. The unrealized yeild represented an unjustified and substantal loss to sportfishermen.

From 1986 - 2001 the ADF&G has estimated that 200 - 300 kings were killed each year from H&R fishing on these early kings.
http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/FedAidPDFs/fds03-02.pdf

If a total of 500 early run kings were calculated for a 2010 H&R mortality, this could be added to the current minimum
king escapement goal thus arriving at a new minimum escapement goal of 5,800 ( 5,300 minimum escapement + 500 H&R kings = 5,800).
According to the above escapement charts this 5,800 minimum king escapement goal would be achieved on June 15th, 2010.
This information concludes that the ADF&G should be able to re-open the Kenai River to at least H&R fishing
on or before June 15th, 2010.

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