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Date Posted: 14:33:46 07/05/10 Mon
Author: Don Johnson
Subject: H&R MORTALITY 10% OR less than 1%?


H&R MORTALITY 10% OR less than 1%?

The average person reads the Hook and Release studies and ends up believing that 10% of a salmon
run will die under a H&R sport fishery. The reason they believe this is because of how the studies are
mis-conducted. If our current Kenai River H&R study were conducted correctly it would have
begun by first collecting data on the actual chances of an angler hooking a fish in the first place.
Our current study ignored this question completely because it would be very difficult to estimate angler hook-up odds.
How do you study the chances of a salmon striking a lure? How do you do you study an anglers chances
of hooking a fish when they are forced to use only artificial baits? How do you study the chances of
getting a hook-up when anglers are forced to only use a single hook? How do you study the chances
of an angler landing a salmon when there is such a large variety of things they can do wrong while trying to
land a fish? How do you study the chances of, even if they do everything right, some other angler may
do something which causes them to lose their fish?
How do you study the chances of an anglers tackle failing, while trying to land a fish?
How do you study the odds of an anglers having an experienced person attempt to net their fish?
How do you study the chances of fish survival when the angler takes more time to release the fish
than is took to land it? Most of these questions went without answers during our Kenai River H&R study
because they are difficult questions to study. It is much easier for a study to just go out on a river
and tag a fish, which anglers plan to release. Then follow that fish around to see if it spawns correctly.
Then just add up the data and it comes out close to 10%, simple right?
Unfortunately any H&R study which does not consider the chances of a fish becoming a H&R candidate
in the first place, is like trying to calculate the odds of dieing while fly in an aircraft, by only studying
those who are injured while flying. How could anyone expect to get a realistic idea of the actual
risk of flying by just studying those who are injured while flying? Say that you came up with a finding
that 10% of those injured while fly actually died? What would that mean with regard to your personal
risk of dieing when you flew in an aircraft? The truth is that only studying injured passengers could never
give you a correct idea of your chances of dieing while flying. If this is true for calculating the risk of flying,
why isn't it also true for calculating the risk of a fish dieing from H&R on the Kenai River?
Most H&R studies only focus on injured fish, to see if they are able to survive after being hooked and
then released. H&R studies give little if any consideration to what lead up to a fish actually becoming
a H&R candidate in the first place and that is why their 10% results is basically meaningless on the Kenai River.
Our Kenai River H&R study did not collect enough information to give real insight into the actual effect
a H&R fishery would have on a run of salmon. Many of our fisheries managers take their 10% results
literary and transpose it directly onto a run of fish by claiming that 10 out of 100 fish in a run actually die
from a H&R fishery? Nothing could be farther from the truth but these managers still believe that it is true.
The actually truth regarding H&R on the Kenai River is that the early run king fishery is greatly effected by
many natural and unnatural angler restrictions, BEFORE you are able to apply any kind of H&R
10% mortality factor. These natural and unnatural factors reduce angler efficiency down to a point to where
the vast majority of any incoming king run never even touch the point of a hook. From the beginning over
90% of a run is automatically eliminated from the 10% H&R factor. Then at least half of all fish hooked
somehow manage to get loose so now you're down to studying 5% of the run. A person who is careful
while releasing a fish can at least double its chances of survival so that will take you down to studying
maybe 2.5% of the actual run. Now that you have considered most of the elimination factors you can actually
apply the 10% mortality issue and that might come out to .25% of the run being negatively effected by
a H&R fishery. A quarter of 1% is significantly different from 10% but when people speak about H&R
on the Kenai River, do they use 10% or less than 1% for a mortality argument?
The truth is that our current H&R studies create a 10% mortality myth and that myth is currently being
applied to our Kenai River salmon runs. The truth is that if we really did a complete and accuracy
H&R study on the Kenai River, we would discover that the actual mortality percentage on a run of fish
is closer to 1% and not 10%.

Don Johnson

P.O. Box 876
Soldotna, Alaska
ccpwow@gci.net

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