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Date Posted:10/20/04 9:39:41pm Author: mbardou Subject: chase weather?
Friday looks to be an interesting day...with some severe potential for IA and IL perhaps. Lots of variables still left to be resolved though...air mass recovery after waa rain event (elevated hailers?) early Friday...amount of instability if air mass does recover...alignment of kinematic features...location of warm and cold front and surface low...etc. Shear profiles look favorable for supercells and possible tornadoes...provided features come together. As we have seen in recent years, some significant severe events take place with somewhat marginal sfc based instability b/c of strong dynamics. I'd be curious to hear some thoughts and if anyone has pondered the idea of chasing.
Friday is definately looking interesting, especially for Iowa. As far as daytime convection is concerned, the prime area looks to be Des Moines, or just to the west/northwest. Closer to Madison or even Debuque, I am not convinced the instability will reach these parts. However, western Iowa will likely end up in a left exit region of WAA and on the nose of the LLJ. This will move off to eastern Iowa or something around sundown!!
All I gotta say is if you're going chasing, you better call me because it's in my back yard. My cell phone is 319-631-3011 for those of you that will go chasing, and I don't have class on fridays, so lets git-r-done!!!
