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Date Posted: 09/13/04 8:53:03pm
Author: wdepriest
Subject: TD-11

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. THERE IS PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST WITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 60.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.7N 62.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 64.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 66.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 19.4N 68.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 21.4N 71.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.0N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 74.5W 60 KT


$$

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[> Re: TD-11 -- nmetz, 09/13/04 9:47:40pm [1]

If this one ends up hitting Florida, I will officially believe that Florida is cursed. I don't think those people can take much more. Even though the worst of Ivan will probably miss many of the previously affected areas, the psychological effect has to be worse than anything.


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