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Date Posted: 09/28/04 3:29:38pm
Author: mbardou
Subject: weekend weather

Not sure if many of you have had time to look at the models much the last couple days, but this weekend looks like it could be an interesting one in the plains and Great Lakes. The GFS has a big trough swinging down from well into Canada. It phases together with a southern stream low in the southwest and brings in something like a 528 thickness line into North Dakota...as well as -10 850 temps. The UKmet and the Euro pick up on this too to varying degrees. One solution suggests a clipper type system after the main trough bringing temps cold enough for rain/snow to northern IL. Obviously this is probably over done given the time of year....but the first freeze looks possible in many spots this weekend (many of these spots will see their first 30's of the season tonight)...and given the run to run consistency of a big trough and cold Canadian air, as well as some teleconnection to some broader scale features, the cold and damp scenario looks good...snow in Illinois....I'm not too convinced. Anyways, I thought this was interesting...the first real sign of fall and a pattern change...at least for a few days...looks like some Zonal flow soon after!

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Replies:

[> Re: weekend weather -- ldavison, 09/29/04 12:49:42am [1]

Doesn't surprise me that the first 30 degree temps are possible tonight. It's already dropped to 43 in DeKalb according to my weatherbug and it isn't even midnight. It'll be good to see fall temperatures finally.


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[> [> Re: weekend weather -- reager, 09/29/04 5:33:02pm [1]

Have fun in the snow. That's the only good thing about the south...I'll be sitting in shorts and a tanktop.


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[> [> [> Re: weekend weather -- sjaye, 09/30/04 10:18:03am [1]

I've never lived there, but I love the south too!!


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[> Re: weekend weather -- dkeeley, 09/30/04 12:14:16pm [1]

friday is when the bottom drops out here in the twin cities. a very strong cold front will be visiting our area finsihing out our 5th warmest september on record. we may get our first subfreezing temp of the season friday night.


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[> [> Re: weekend weather -- mbardou, 09/30/04 6:47:39pm [1]

Yep...it looks like Saturday morning has a good chance of having a freeze here in the Quad Cities....depends on if the boundary layer winds can decouple...the front looks to be a little faster than previous days so that just might be able to happen. Monday morning looks like possibly the best chance for a freeze here having had the secondary artic front roll though. Moline just missed having a warmer September than August. If Dubuque got to 72 today, then September would be warmer by a tenth of a degree or so. A tv guy mentioned that the last time this happened...at MLI and DBQ...was 1897....then he was quick to mention that there was 50 inches of snow that winter...quite a bit for around here.


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