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Date Posted: 01:19:09 09/05/12 Wed
Author: Charisse Bartoli
Subject: Euro softer as traders eye ECB meeting

This morning, financial markets are on the softer side as traders face uncertainty ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting. There is a building expectation that the ECB will move towards effectively being a de facto central fiscal authority for Europe. Ultimately, more formal fiscal integration is the only way the euro will survive, but this path is fraught with uncertainty with the German constitutional court set to rule on the legality of such an extension of power by the ECB. The EUR/JPY is down 0.40%, the EUR/USD down 0.33% and the EUR/GBP off by 0.22%. The pound is holding steady in relation to the euro after yesterday's services data gave hope for the UK economy. Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars continue to fall after Australian GDP came in below estimates this morning.

We have a number of lower tier European economic releases this morning including European retail sales at 10.00. US revised non farm productivity is released at 13.30. At 14.00 we have the latest rate statement from the Bank of Canada. We also have a German 10 year bond auction running through the day. The AUD/USD has been in a steady down trend since the start of August, as traders bet on an interest rate cut in the future. Such extended runs can last some time on this trend following pair, with the trend tending to end with a blow out down day more often than not. As this has not happened yet, it could imply either further downside to come or that a sharp short term move lower is on the cards.

A good way to play this on BetOnMarkets.com might be a TOUCH trade predicting that the AUD/USD touches 1.0075 in 5 days time for a potential return of 155%.

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