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Date Posted: 14:52:57 01/03/08 Thu
Author: JMR (Hopefully for the good.)
Subject: Predictions for 2008

My 2008 predictions on illegal immigration. And "HAPPY NEW YEAR."
2008/1/1
"Burning Atlanta" website

As most are aware, the tide has definitely turned as the anti-illegal wave continues to grow.

The last amnesty attempt went down in flames with most republican senators opposing it and 15 democrats joining them. Congress did not FAIL to pass "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" as many biased writers would lead you to believe. That was a huge VICTORY for the American people who stood up and raised such total hell that some of the politicians decided to back off. The "Silent Majority" may not be so big on demonstrating in the streets, but they sure know how to fax, call, and email. Those politicians' phones were ringing off their desks. There are still those in such total denial that they continue to blame talk radio and a small but vocal minority of anti-immigrant, nativist, extremists. Such people are total idiots or total liars.

More states and localities are passing tough laws, either cutting benefits and/or targeting employers. Many eyes are focused on Arizona as they passed the really toughest laws. Nobody knows how many illegals are taking the hint and leaving for home. Could be in the hundreds of thousands around the country. Best of all, some politicians are losing office specifically for taking a weak or pro-illegal stance. Yes, it's mainly on a local level but all it would take is a few republican and democrat Congressmen getting tossed for others to sing a different tune.

Some illegals seem to be holding out hope that if a democrat is elected President then they may still gain an amnesty. I don't think it's going to make a bit of difference. I sure hope not.

Prediction 1. Current trends will continue as more states and localities take up the "Welcome" mat and get serious about enforcement. And more police and sheriff's departments will be screening for illegal aliens at the jails.

Predicition 2. More illegals will be leaving the country and fewer will be making the trip here. Border patrol reports a 20% reduction of apprehensions in 2007. I expect that downward trend to grow in 2008. Perhaps a reduction of 25-35%. As more illegals leave for their home countries, the message will be, "Don't go." In the far reaches of overly optimistic possibilities, reaching "stasis" is not impossible for 2008. But one would have to use the smaller number of about 500,000 new illegals getting in per year. A more commonly accepted number is a million or more.

Prediction 3. Remittances to Mexico and some other countries, for the first time in many years, will drop. Last I read, remittances were growing annually in the double-digits but, now, that growth is zero. Mexico is so bent out of shape over the issue that they've started a PR campaign to counter "anti-immigrant sentiments."

Prediction 4. The Zero Tolerance policy of imposing some fines and/or jail time on illegal crossers will grow. In areas where illegals are being apprehended and fined/jailed there's been a sharp reduction of crossings.

Prediction 5. A "Fence" will not be completed even though some federal spokeshole may claim "Operational control" of the southern border. I do not consider a "fence" as a solution to our immigration problem though I totally support more enforcement along the borders. It's just the way they lied about it that irritates me.

General predictions: All the typical scare tactics and rhetoric will continue. "The economy sky is falling...we can't possibly survive without an additional 400,000 migrant workers a year...prices will skyrocket...you're splitting up families...you're racially profiling...you're forcing them deeper into the shadows...you're building mistrust of the police in the immigrant communities and they'll be less likely to report crimes...you're disenfranchising immigrants and they're going to be riots like in France, " etc...

I fully expect to see an economic "hit" in some areas. As more illegals leave, the businesses that catered to them will either have to adapt or close. And there may be less revenue BUT there will also be less expenditures. Education, medical, judicial costs, etc.. And, as happened in some areas, I expect wages will rise to attract legal workers. I still expect Congress to try and pass some mini-amnesties such as one for farm workers and their families. As more states and localities see the benefit of passing laws such as in Oklahoma or Arizona, especially as those states' laws overcome legal challenges, they will feel compelled to pass similar laws. A Domino Effect. They won't want all of their neighbors' illegals to descend on them.

Overall, 2008 will be a pivotal year on the issue. If current trends continue, and if Congress doesn't sell out the American people, then this country, for the first time in about 50 years, may get a grip on the problem.

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