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Date Posted: 16:40:06 06/21/10 Mon
Author: The best time to buy shares'Eclipse' hits Rome and Berlin
Subject: Re: 58 dollars===85 days start Iran calendar==Tuesday 22/6/2010
In reply to: Jaywalking Ticket at 79% waxing Gibbous cancer June 22nd 's message, "58 dollars===85 days start Iran calendar==Tuesday 22/6/2010" on 16:34:07 06/21/10 Mon

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Personal Finance > Columnists > Aaron Lynch > Archive > Timing your trades

Columnist Aaron Lynch
Timing your trades
by Aaron Lynch
posted on Jun 21 11:53am
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Aaron LynchThe theory here suggests that we shouldn't be concerned with getting in and out at the right time, but we should allow ourselves plenty of time for the market to move in our favour.There is a widely used phrase among investors that "TIME IN the market is more important than TIMING the market."

The theory here suggests that we shouldn't be concerned with getting in and out at the right time, but we should allow ourselves plenty of time for the market to move in our favour.

Top to bottom

Unfortunately, markets don't just move up and down in straight lines. They move is a series of higher tops and higher bottoms or lower tops and lower bottoms.

Let's take a look at the ASX200 index, which tracks the performance of the top 200 stocks on the Australian share market.

In Chart One below, we can see that the ASX200 has fallen over 3500 points from the All Time High at the end of 2007.



This is the largest points drop we have seen on this market in its history, but as you can see from the chart, it wasn't just a straight fall.

There were periods of choppy, sideways action in August and September 2008 and from October to April, 2010. There was also 50% retracement from the March 2008 lows, with the market running up nearly 1000 points from the lows.

I don't know too many traders who could hold on while the market moved 1000 points against them. Had you sold short (a technique for making money as the market falls) in early March, there is a good chance you would have lost money in this market, even though you were right about the overall market direction.

The little things

In many of these cases, some simple timing techniques applied to this market could not only save a trader thousands of dollars but also save them the stress and emotion of being in a losing position and watching it go against them.

Even though the markets have fallen so far over the last two and a half years, not everyone who took short trades during this period made money. In fact, some actually lost substantial amounts of money.

Markets take time to unfold, whether they are on the way up or on the way down. A bear market will consist of many moves to the downside, followed by many other moves to the upside along the way.

Time to sell?

By measuring the size and the duration of each fall and each retracement, you can get an idea as to whether the market is getting stronger or weaker and when and where it is likely to pull up.

The time to sell in a bear market is at the end of a rally, not at the end of a large fall. Looking at the chart of the ASX200 above, we have had a large fall from the April 2010 top, followed by a rally. Could this be the next place to sell?

Good Trading!


Download a FREE Investment Know How book courtesy of Safety in the Market.

All recommendations are provided without consideration of any specific reader's investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Those acting upon such recommendations do so entirely at their own risk.

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