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Date Posted: 09/13/15 8:49:47am Sun
Author: Willaim James
Subject: Yale / Homecoming

In August I posted a back-of-the-envelope analysis predicting a 38% chance that Colgate would start the season 0-3. At that point, I was estimating a 50% chance of beating Yale. If the Yale probability holds, we've now moved to a place where there is a 50% chance we'll be 0-3. Many of us expected being 0-2 at this point, but it is somehow more painful living it.

So, two questions for the fine minds on this board:

1) What do you think the probability is of Colgate defeating Yale this coming Saturday? Not asking for hopes and dreams, but your honest assessment (made more difficult by Yale not having played yet this year).

2) Did Navy and UNH make us look worse than we are, or are the weaknesses we saw over the last two weeks going to persist against Yale, and then later, Patriot League competition?

GO GATE.

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Replies:

[> Re: Yale / Homecoming -- 'gate80, 09/13/15 9:44:58am Sun

1) Yes Yale lost Varga, but they were pretty good last year. In addition to beating us by 2 TDs, they beat Army, a Lehigh team we lost to, and common opponents Cornell and Princeton far more decisively than we did. In recent years I've been unpleasantly surprised at Colgate games far more often than the other way around. A weaker Yale team beat us easily at Kerr in their opener 2 years ago, when we had 3 games under our belt including Air Force and UNH.

2) Perhaps Navy and UNH are that good. A poster said Navy may be the best team we played since Syracuse in 1987. We'll see. Some other teams since then which may have been better than Navy were Rutgers in 88 and 92 (they beat Mich St, Penn St, Pitt, WVU, Va Tech, and BC in those years); Army in 95 (lost to top-10 ND by a point, beat BC 49-7); Navy in 97 (7 wins); Syracuse in 2010 (bowl win over Kansas St); and even in I-AA Georgia Southern in 1998 and Delaware in 2003 (who beat an 8-win Navy team that year). In some of those games we more more competitive than we were the last 2 weeks.

I can't shake the feeling of ongoing decline in our program. This weekend I watched games played by 2 schools we beat decisively 12 years ago. Fla Atl was tied with Miami 20-20 in the third before the Hurricanes pulled away, and Buffalo was only down 10-7 to Penn St. at the end of the 3rd. What schools have Colgate gained on in the last decade?


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[> Re: Yale / Homecoming -- agatefan, 09/13/15 9:51:46am Sun

UNH was NOT a very good team, their O was average and they ran the ball on Gate D and threw the ball as well,
LB's can't cover and have yet to show they can set the edge very concerned if this is the best front 7 in 20yrs
secondary looks alarmingly weak
The O is sporadic at best and the misuse of 3 rb's is awful
also seems like talent on the sideline with lesser talent on the field.
HOPEFULY things begin to turn around


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[> Re: Yale / Homecoming -- gate, 09/13/15 10:02:30am Sun

These OOC games prepare us better for PL competition, but starting the season 0-4 and righting the ship has become too common. The injuries that pile up with each game make me sick with grief for Colgate.

Having played two games already, we should win and Yale shouldn't. I see this game as our best chance of getting an OOC win. That said, I still think the Bulldogs will persevere. Am glad to be playing them and not Dartmouth anymore.

And thank God for the 1pm start time, rain or shine. Only 4 home games left, the next not being until Oct. 31.


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[> [> Re: Yale / Homecoming -- agatefan, 09/13/15 10:25:37am Sun

>These OOC games prepare us better for PL competition,
>but starting the season 0-4 and righting the ship has
>become too common.

while this is stated repeatedly "the ship has not been righted" the past 2 seasons


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[> Re: Yale / Homecoming -- Gate Raider, 09/14/15 2:29:27pm Mon

I have to give Yale a 70% chance for the win even with the loss of their good RB, Varga, who is now playing in the NFL.
Colgate's defensive backfield is weak, with the exception of Hardegree, and have missed many tackles. The loss of Steffen is huge, UNH ran right at his replacement. And, UNH took their starting QB out. Don't see 'gate defense as a strength. The offense is mightily struggling. Hunt's stubbornness with the continued use of 3 RB's hurts the run game. Had another dropped hand off. In spite of using 3 RB's, Melville was the leading rusher against UNH with 59 yards. Russell fumbled again, killing a drive around the 20. Go with Holland and Wilkens for short yardage. Melville had a career high 41 pass attempts for 195 yards but, could only produce 8 points. The receivers dropped many balls and deserve half of the blame. Melville's underthrown pass was completed for a gain but, it should have been a TD. See nothing to cheer about but, I hope the team looks better in the PL.
So far, there has been no benefit to adding scholarships. In fact, performance has worsened.
I don't mind a stretch game but, starting every year with three losses doesn't do much for team confidence and fan interest. Wouldn't it be nice to start with a couple of wins after three games, build team confidence and get fans excited? Wins help recruiting. Good players want to go to winning teams and fans attend games when their team is winning. Sorry about the rant, I'm getting frustrated. Go 'gate beat Yale.


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[> [> Re: Yale / Homecoming -- agatefan, 09/14/15 3:51:19pm Mon

>I have to give Yale a 70% chance for the win even with
>the loss of their good RB, Varga, who is now playing
>in the NFL.
>Colgate's defensive backfield is weak, with the
>exception of Hardegree, and have missed many tackles.
>The loss of Steffen is huge, UNH ran right at his
>replacement. And, UNH took their starting QB out.
>Don't see 'gate defense as a strength. The offense is
>mightily struggling. Hunt's stubbornness with the
>continued use of 3 RB's hurts the run game. Had
>another dropped hand off. In spite of using 3 RB's,
>Melville was the leading rusher against UNH with 59
>yards. Russell fumbled again, killing a drive around
>the 20. Go with Holland and Wilkens for short
>yardage. Melville had a career high 41 pass attempts
>for 195 yards but, could only produce 8 points. The
>receivers dropped many balls and deserve half of the
>blame. Melville's underthrown pass was completed for
>a gain but, it should have been a TD. See nothing to
>cheer about but, I hope the team looks better in the
>PL.
> So far, there has been no benefit to adding
>scholarships. In fact, performance has worsened.
> I don't mind a stretch game but, starting every
>year with three losses doesn't do much for team
>confidence and fan interest. Wouldn't it be nice to
>start with a couple of wins after three games, build
>team confidence and get fans excited? Wins help
>recruiting. Good players want to go to winning teams
>and fans attend games when their team is winning.
>Sorry about the rant, I'm getting frustrated. Go
>'gate beat Yale.

yes, well said raider


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