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Date Posted: 10:28:32 02/10/03 Mon
Author: STAGAL
Subject: STAG SLIDE

Reversion to the mean? Maybe we were playing above our heads and now we are seeing the Stags of old again?????

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Replies:

[> Re: STAG SLIDE -- jenningbeach, 12:48:50 02/10/03 Mon

While there is cause for concern, I don't think it's time to freak out yet.

Fortunately, the remaining schedule is favorable.

@ Manhattan—The Jaspers are a runaway train, and we're reeling. Fairfield could make a HUGE statement with a win at Draddy. The Stags need to play well, find a couple of go-to guys and build confidence for the last five games. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening. Manhattan wins in a blowout.

vs. Marist—The Foxes have a shot. Magarity, Eppehimer, Ellerbee and company could find a way, especially with the Stags struggling. This is most dangerous of the four second-tier games, but I think we'll start to right the ship next Saturday. A close win.

vs. Rider—The Broncs can't stop our inside game. An easy win.

@ Niagara—This will be a barometer game, a chance for the Stags to make a real statement. A win in Buffalo would build confidence and all but clinch the No. 2 seed. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening. A close loss.

@ St. Peter's—Second-most dangerous game of the second-tier schools, and Keydren Clark is the reason. He could have a Luis Flores-type game and take us down. But I think we'll survive Jersey City. A close win.

@ Loyola—If the Stags lose this one, we'll be one and done in Trenton. Easy win.

These last games are definitely going to test TOT. Tim is going to have to provide steady leadership, stay cool and calm. And he's going to have to trust his players, avoiding the random substitution patterns of yesteryear. These guys cannot be looking over their shoulders, waiting for the hook.

Fairfield has proven to be tough and resilient all year, and I think they'll bounce back one more time. I still think we're a top-three team in the league, and I still expect a comparable seeding. But defense, hustle and hard work aren't enough to get us to Monday, March 10. If someone—Delfico, Todd, Bell, Ajou, Kudjo, Goode—doesn't start sticking some J's consistently, we won't survive the MAAC semifinals.

It's going to be an interesting four weeks. I hope the Stags—and Tim O'Toole—are up to the challenge.


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[> [> looks pretty realistic -- STAGAL, 17:55:55 02/10/03 Mon

We SHOULD do no worse than 4-2 the rest of the way, with likely loss to MC and possible loss to Niagara, both on the road. Anything worse than that does not bode well for us in Trenton. Why all of a sudden have we gone into a funk?


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[> [> [> Re: looks pretty realistic -- Stagman, 19:46:58 02/10/03 Mon

Trivia Time

Look at the numbers and answer the question below.

Stags 3-pt shooting
Goode 45%
Gai 41%
Todd 37%
Sogadzi 35%

Trivia Question
Which of those four takes the most 3's for the Stags?

Answer
None of them. Delfico, who shoots 27% takes the most.

Trivia Question
The Stags came into the season with what many called the best front line in the MAAC (Gai, Garcia, Thomson and Deng). Which Stag has taken the most shots this season?

Answer
Freshman point guard Todd has taken 169 shots and shoots 35% overall.

Trivia Question
How many shots does Deng Gai, possibly the best player to don a Stag uniform in 20 years, average per game?

Answer
Gai shoots over 57% (41% from 3 point range) but takes only nine shots per game or about one every 4 minutes and 27 seconds.

I hate to harp on these things, but good offensive schemes accentuate players positive traits and minimize their negative traits. They get the ball in the hands of the players who can score.

I don't think that Todd was recruited in order to lead the team in shots taken. I'd like to think that someone shooting 27% from 3 point range might actually be taking fewer than someone shooting over 40%. I'd like to think that a kid who might be playing in the NBA in a couple of years could somehow get double digit shots per game.

I'd also like to think that a team that is touted for its strong defense, would not give up 85 points to Niagara. Or 93 points to Manhattan.

There is still time, though not much, to make something out of this season. I agree that 4-2 should be the minimum expected for the rest of the regular season. 5-1 should be the goal. It would be a crying shame if they only went 3-3 or worse from here on out. But the good coaches in this league tend to figure you out the second time around and if you don't make adjustments, you're in trouble.

Time to find five guys who can play the game and stick with them.


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[> [> [> [> Re: looks pretty realistic -- Running Man, 20:40:07 02/10/03 Mon

Stagman,great analysis. This should open some eyes.


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[> [> [> [> Re: looks pretty realistic -- Menzies, 07:22:07 02/11/03 Tue

Does Gai make himself available in shot making position often enough? He is sorely going to miss McLeod. As he has only played bball for 3-5 years, he needs a mentor.

Todd would have to take fewer shots if we were not horrible about moving without the ball. My guess is if we did a better job moving, Todd would make the same number of baskets on fewer shots AND get more assists.


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[> [> [> [> [> Re: looks pretty realistic -- RayS, 08:39:53 02/11/03 Tue

Both Stagman & Menzies make excellent points. Their analysis raises an important question, why does our offense remain so one dimensional. I can't believe our only strategy is to pound the ball inside regardless of our opponents adjustments---or is it?


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