| Subject: Back of envelope calculations Erg's March 11th half yeary 2002 profit. |
Author:
Steve Bonkers.
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Date Posted: 06:30:47 02/06/02 Wed
Profit/22.36/mill/53.6 mill/56.61 mill.
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CEO PETER FOGARTY---Feb 6th 2002.
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We actually advised the market we had potential cash inflow of about $265 million, of which $180 million to $200 million is high probability. By December 31, 2001 we'd received nearly $120 million from the high probability sources. Of that, approximately $49 million came from the Singapore project and approximately $12 million from San Francisco.
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This is extremely rough---it is just back of envelope calculations for every operation ERG has in the world are at different stages of development and if you read back through some of the projects ERG has been undertaking they all have their own unique contribution by Erg, ie in some cases ERG runs the whole operation in other cases only part of it, to do it more precisely would require something better than below.
It is quite clear to me that ERG will definitely make more money in six months than they did for the whole of the last twelve months.
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1728 Known about Rome March/2001. bonkers 5 February, 2002 12:27
Known about Rome March/2001.
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The contract is over 9 years.The gross revenues are consevatively valued at $5.7 billion over the full term. ERG is expected to reap 7.8%.
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Correctly predicted on the thread--ERG would come out with some PR and rightly so in the authors opinion as the market had some questions and I feel the response was excellent. (working as a team at H/C.)
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By December 30th 2001 Mr Fogarty has stated that ERG have received a great deal of the monies that they gave a high probability of receiving, he has stated nearly 120 million, if we applied March 2001 analysis of Rome to all of ERG's operations we get a margin on that revenue of 7.8%--so simply 7.8% of 120 million is 9.36 million.
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We add to the 9.36 million a conservative 13 million from the sale of Downer--see below.
1736 13 to 15 mill, Downer EDI.bonkers 5 February, 2002 13:57
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Downer EDI 8/10/2001. ERG Telecommunications Pty Ltd decreased its relevant interest in Downer EDI Limited on 11/09/2001, from 55,538,461 ordinary shares
(9.60%) to 42,720,384 ordinary shares (5.40%).
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DOWNER EDI LIMITED 26/10/2001. ERG Telecommunications Pty Ltd decreased its relevant interest in Downer EDI Limited on 10/10/2001, from 42,720,000 ordinary shares (5.4%) to 20,920,000 ordinary shares (2.6%).
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13 to 15 mill, Downer EDI.
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Traded Shares in Other Corporations Investment in listed shares includes shares in Downer EDI Limited at a cost of $37,612,469 (2000: $38,000,000), a company involved in multidisciplined services focused on infrastructure maintenance, engineering, construction, telecommunications, mining and resource services.
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The investment represents 7.1% of the issued share capital of Downer EDI Limited.The market value of the shares traded on organised markets was $32,454,000 (2000:$46,144,000).
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Erg had 55 million EDI Downer shares latest information is the entity has sold 35 million at between 68c and 84c per share the original price paid was 40c per share Erg received the Downer shares as part consideration for the sale of the telecommunications business in August of 2000.
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ERG so far have realised a profit of between 13 and 15 million dollars.---Source telephone call to ERG by associate of writer.
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Taking the lower of the figures of 13 million profit received a profit on each share of 37.14285 37c rounded taking the highest at 15 million profit 42.85714 43c rounded.
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9.36 million plus 13 million equals 22.36 million net profit, if within the money that came back by December 31st (and the payment to ERG was to be no later than then) we then add 22.36 mill to 31.2 mill total equals 53.56 million profit (haven't calculated tax) (or the refund--re depreciation--research and development--which makes it even more.)
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Then we would add the profits ERG makes normally---ie for the full year ERG made 6.1 million last time reporting--so without adding any growth---half of 6.1 equals 3.05 you then get 53.56 plus 3.05 equals 56.61 million profit.
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