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Date Posted: 13:15:54 12/03/01 Mon
Analysis: The allies' Afghan gamble
By the BBC's Paul Adams
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1631000/1631326.stm
With Western military officials admitting openly that they are making their campaign against Afghanistan up as they go along, it is hardly surprising that questions are being raised about strategy.
Do Washington and her allies still know what they are doing?
With a number of factors now pressing in - notably the onset of winter and the Muslim holy month of Ramadan - strategy is evolving.
Washington and London can ill-afford to enter this period with no tangible gains.
Alliance attention
Winter will not bring the coalition campaign to a halt, but it will restrict the type - and area - of ground operations.
Ramadan, meanwhile, is likely to be an issue to would-be Muslim coalition partners, rather than to the warring parties in Afghanistan.
It is perhaps with these two factors in mind that the Pentagon now says it is dropping supplies of ammunition to the Northern Alliance.
Not only that, but US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said that US planes are now devoting more of their effort to hitting Taleban frontline troops.
On Wednesday, B-52 bombers pounded some of these positions north of Kabul.
For the first time on Tuesday, Mr Rumsfeld also admitted that a small number of US ground troops were operating with the Northern Alliance, "doing an excellent job of assisting with the coordination for resupplies of various types as well as targeting".
Northern Alliance commanders have been pressing hard for greater co-ordination and for more direct American action against their Taleban opponents.
They do now seem to be getting more of what they want.
This could result in a renewed push for the strategically important northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, which American officials have identified as a possible forward base for US troops.
It could also clear the way for the Northern Alliance to use the Bagram airbase, north of Kabul.
Seeking friends
But if the picture in northern Afghanistan is complex, little hard information exists about the situation in the south.
Western officials say they are anxious to win friends among ethnic Pashtun tribesmen but admit that they are not making much progress.
Intelligence is the key to success but Britain's Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, last week admitted that this was still "the biggest problem".
Speaking at the Pentagon on Tuesday, Rear Admiral John Stufflebeem said the south was "more problematic" than the north.
"We have not been invited, we have not been asked for, we have not been requested, as we have in the north," he told reporters.
More than 230 Royal Marines commandos will soon be ready to conduct ground operations.
Officials say it could be months before they are used.
One last word on coalition strategy: We should not necessarily base our conclusions on what we can see.
At the Pentagon, officials have warned for some time that some parts of the campaign would be visible, others would not.
In the words of one observer: "We are deep in disinformation at the moment...which is where we should be."
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