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Date Posted: 04:03:04 09/11/02 Wed
Author: Weird_Enigma
Author Host/IP: 209.252.119.9
Subject: Talk to Iraq's people first
In reply to: Weird_Enigma 's message, "Top 10 reasons U.S. should not invade Iraq" on 22:08:37 08/17/02 Sat

Talk to Iraq's people first
How will they react to an attempt to oust Saddam Hussein?
ROBERT J. LIEBER AND EHUD SPRINZAK
Knight Ridder/Tribune

The critical question about Iraq is not only how Saddam Hussein will react when American precision weapons start pounding his army but the reaction of the scores, perhaps hundreds, of people who surround him. If senior Iraqi officers remain loyal, the war could be longer and costlier than necessary. But if they decide to disobey orders, push no unconventional weapon buttons and wait for the tyrant's downfall, the war could be over quite quickly.

The loyalty of Iraqi officials to Hussein will not depend exclusively on what he does or does not do. To a large extent it will also depend on the ability of the U.S. administration to send the Iraqi people an unequivocal message of hope. Yet it appears that official Washington has paid insufficient attention to this critical issue. While enormous energy necessarily goes to the military and political preparation of the war, there is little sign of a concerted campaign to isolate Saddam from his own people.

In all likelihood, once freed from Saddam's ruthless regime, the vast majority of the Iraqis will appreciate the great contribution of the United States to their liberation. Most of them know all too well that they have been living under a terrorist regime and they will be relieved to see its demise. That does not mean, however, that the United State is presently popular in Iraq or that its impending attack is welcome.

Not only has the population been brainwashed for years about U.S. "imperialist" Mideast policies but their own experience has given them little reason to think otherwise. The Gulf War brought the Iraqi people enormous disaster. This was an unintended but necessary consequence of the U.S. struggle to liberate Kuwait and disrupt Saddam's weapons of mass destruction threat.

But they only know that they paid the price of the war, and that those who rose against the regime were crushed while the United States remained aloof.

The Iraqi people are worried about the gathering storm. Courtesy of the Saddam propaganda machine, they are sure that if it breaks out another wave of suffering is inevitable. While the more sophisticated among them are afraid of a possible territorial disintegration of their country, the majority have been indoctrinated with the idea that this is just another diabolical pro-Zionist and capitalist plot.

Fully familiar with their leader's legendary survival instincts, most of them also assume that he will outlast the Americans. In these circumstances, senior officers around Saddam could very likely fight along with him to the bitter end.

If the administration is serious about its determination to topple Saddam, it ought to start talking to the Iraqi people now. Because the Iraqis distrust empty promises, a lot more than hollow psychological warfare is needed. Together with the local opposition, the United States ought to develop what David Mack of the Middle East Institute calls a meaningful "pro-Iraqi plan" that would offer all Iraqis a better future.

The United States must make sure that every Iraqi citizen including that nation's key officials learns about the plan before the war, believes in its credibility and is doubly reassured of the U.S. determination not only to oust Saddam but to improve life for ordinary Iraqis.

The program's principles, for an Iraq free both of Saddam and weapons of mass destruction, should include a guarantee for that country's present international borders; technical assistance for rebuilding its infrastructure as well as its educational, health and industrial systems; wide-ranging political reforms involving the protection of minorities and the development of civil society; and an international business initiative for modernization of the oil industry. Stressing the positive side of rebuilding modern Iraq, the program should offer broad amnesty for all but the very top officials and end all that nation's remaining war reparations.

The president should propose a comprehensive design for the reconstruction of Iraq including, perhaps, a massive "Powell Plan" for that country's civic and economic modernization. Iraq, let us all remember, is not Afghanistan. It has an educated public and a potentially large, though currently impoverished middle class. Iraqis must know that liberation would mean dramatic improvement of their lives.

Once announced, the plan should repeatedly be relayed to the Iraqis through every available Middle East channel including Radio Free Iraq, satellite television, and the Arab print press. Private channels should be used to convey the same message to Iraq's top echelons.

Talking credibly to the Iraqi people is unlikely to be easy. It will require plenty of resources, great creativity and at least a few months of a serious "one-sided" dialogue. But it is an effort worth making. If successful, it will cut the war short, save American and Iraqi lives, and dramatically reduce the cost of this entire timely operation.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Robert J. Lieber is professor of government and foreign service at Georgetown University in Washington. Ehud Sprinzak is dean of the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzilya, Israel.

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