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Author: Oropan |
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Date Posted: 14:19:56 04/23/07 Mon In reply to: jw 's message, "Lake superior rarely freezes over? Not according to scientists!" on 07:48:55 04/23/07 Mon This hardly sounds like global warming to me. There is no..zero trend to show the area is getting warmer over the long term. Short term ups and downs just like has always been the case. Posted 3/6/2003 9:41 AM Ice threatens to cover Lake Superior HOUGHTON, Mich. (AP) — Record-shattering cold temperatures threaten to freeze massive Lake Superior's surface for the first time in more than two decades. "The lake is fairly well covered," said Craig Evanego, an ice forecaster with the National Ice Center in Washington. "It's the thickest its been in years." Lake Superior last froze completely in 1979, and this year's ice cover is the most since 1996-97, lake watchers said. Ice currently covers more than 90% of the greatest of the Great Lakes, Evanego said. In some areas, the covering is a scant inch or so, but vast portions of the big lake have 12 to 28 inches of ice, according to the National Ice Center. Lakes Huron and Erie are ice-covered, with much of shallow Lake Erie buried under 28 or more inches of ice, the center reported. Northern Lake Michigan is frozen, but the mid- to lower section is open, other than coastal areas. Relentless cold temperatures are responsible for the ice buildup. While snow swept across much of mid- and lower Michigan early Wednesday, Upper Peninsula residents again bundled up against record lows. "It's more than just a little bit cold here," said Dave Petrovich, a forecaster with the National Weather Service office in Marquette County's Negaunee Township. Temperatures at Houghton County Memorial Airport hit minus 17 degrees at 8 a.m. Wednesday, shattering the day's previous record of minus 5, set in 1960. Petrovich also said minus 16 in Marquette County set a new low. At the western tip of Lake Superior, Duluth, Minn., saw a low of 12 below Wednesday. The winter of 2002-03 is shaping up to be slightly colder than normal in the area, though not as bitterly cold as many might believe, said Keith Bergens, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gaylord. Mild temperatures dominated October through the end of December, while colder than normal weather settled in since, he said. "In history, when we look back at the winter of 2003, I'd say it was pretty average," Bergens said. > Scientists actually studying the lake have >determined that lake superior is warming very rapidly, >it is warming faster than the surrounding land, which >shows a positive feedback similar to what is happening >in the arctic, usually large bodies of water warm >slower than land areas because of water's higher >thermal inertia, but when it involves loss of sea ice, >bodies of water can warm faster than the land. > > This research was published by the american >geophysical union, it is subject to peer review, where >do exxon mobile scientists publish there work? > > > >Scientists: Lake Superior warming rapidly >Friday, 06 April 2007 > > > >NASA photo shows ice almost completely covering Lake >Superior, upper left, and Lake Huron, right of the >mitten-shaped state, and circling Lake Michigan, the >dark shape, in March 2003. DULUTH, Minnesota (AP) -- >Lake Superior has been warming even faster than the >climate around it since the late 1970s because of >reduced ice cover, according to a study by professors >at the University of Minnesota Duluth. > > >Summer surface temperatures on the famously cold lake >have increased about 4.5 degrees since 1979, compared >with about a 2.7-degree increase in the region's >annual average air temperature, the researchers found. >The lake's "summer season" is now beginning about two >weeks earlier than it did 27 years ago. > >"It's a remarkably rapid rate of change," Jay Austin, >an assistant professor with the university's Large >Lakes Observatory and Department of Physics, told the >Star Tribune newspaper. Austin co-authored the study >with geology professor Steve Colman. > >The study is based on data collected by National >Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration buoys on the >lake and on 102 years' worth of daily temperature >readings at a hydroelectric plant near Sault Ste. >Marie, Michigan. > >Austin said the surface temperature increase is not >only "a symptom of climate change," but also could >reinforce itself. A trend toward warmer winters would >mean less winter ice cover, which would allow more >solar radiation of the lake and continued warming, he >said. > >Lake Superior freezes over completely about once every >20 years, according to the Minnesota DNR's climatology >office. If trends continue, it could be routinely >ice-free by about 2040, the study found. This would >cause water levels to continue to drop because the >lake loses more water to evaporation in a winter >without ice cover than it does during the summer. In >recent months, the lake's level has been lower than at >any equivalent time since 1926. > >The study was first published by the American >Geophysical Union on March 23. > >Source: CNN.com > > > >>Since I live within a few miles of the lake I'll give >>you a few facts.....Lk Superior very very seldom every >>freezes over. In fact I have never seen it. It just >>gets shelf or shoreline ice because it is too deep to >>freeze completely. That is the reason you get lake >>effect snow. >>AND, we have had a multi year drought around here. If >>you look at the table of numbers that I posted from >>the Corp of engineers you can easily see when there >>were periods of drought. Nothing new or terrible is >>happening around here and the drought will end just >>like it has always ended. Those numbers from the Corp >>show absolutely NO TREND. BTW, was there a bunch of >>global warming in 1925? I'm sure if you were around >>back then you would have claimed there was!LOL >> >> >> >> >> >>> You forget to mention that december 06' was the >>>second lowest year ever, and that the low level of >>>1926 was caused by a drought, whereas now there is a >>>lack of ice coverage in recent years. When a 30,000 >>>square mile lake drops a foot in a year, we have >>>reason to be concerned. The temperatures of lake >>>superior and surrounding areas have reached record >>>highs in the last year, the lack of ice coverage and >>>increased evaporation from the warming waters are a >>>big problem for lake superior and the rest of the >>>great lakes region. >>> >>> Btw, the article i posted was from the chicago sun >>>times, which is a conservative news paper, and they >>>even attributed the near record low levels of lake >>>superior to the lack of ice cover. >>> >>>> >>>>I know the point of your post was to claim Global >>>>warming was lowering the level of Lake Superior. The >>>>chart of Lk Superior water levels that I posted >>>>totally debunks that. It shows that water levels in >>>>the Lake very slightly every year. The highest >>>>December level waqs 183.81 meters in 1981. The >lowest >>>>Dec level was 182.92 in 1925. Dec of 2006 was >182.98. >>>>All this proves is some years have more snow cover >>and >>>>rain than other years. THERE IS NO TREND IN THE >>>>NUMBERS!!!!!! In fact if you graph the numbers, you >>>>will easily see that. I mentioned the polar bears >>>>because your post was just like that >>story.....totally >>>>untrue....there are many more polar bears today than >>>>just a couple decades ago. Lake Superior is doing >>just >>>>fine and a wet year will bring water levels right >>back >>>>up just like has happened many times before. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>>From the article in my post- >>>>> >>>>> "Lake Superior is within a few inches of its >>>record >>>>>low 599.5 feet deep, set in 1926. It's now about a >>>>>foot lower than last year and projections for this >>>>>summer are that it'll get even lower." >>>>> >>>>> O's observation - >>>>> >>>>> "Note that the overall Great Lakes level was >>lower >>>>>in >>>>>December 1925 than it is/was in Dec 2006 and also >>>>>lower than the long term average. " >>>>> >>>>> What O left out is that lake superior is at it's >>>>>second lowest level ever, and it is predicted to >get >>>>>lower and break the record that was set in 1926. >>>Btw, >>>>>i was able to get the website by clicking on O's >>>link, >>>>>but the link ran a few screens wide. >>>>> >>>>> From O's post, there is a link to this article >>>from >>>>>the business section of the chicago sun times, >which >>>>>is essentialy the same article i posted. There are >>>no >>>>>starving polar bear pictures in this article, just >>>>>some hard facts about how the shipping industry in >>>the >>>>>upper midwest is being hurt by the decline of the >>>>>level of lake superior, many ships have to reduce >>>>>their payloads by 10% now. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>href="http://www.suntimes.com/business/343966,CST-F >I >>N >>>- >>>>L >>>>>ake17x.article">http://www.suntimes.com/business/34 >3 >>9 >>>6 >>>>6 >>>>>,CST-FIN-Lake17x.article >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> In the last year, superior lost a food of >>>>>elevation. If such a trend were to become >>permament, >>>>>even at a slower rate, it would be a disaster for >>>>>shipping on the great lakes and the regional >>>economy. >>>>>If global warming threatens polar bears, that >>bothers >>>>>me. If global warming threatens capitalism, that >is >>>>>indeed the redemption of man from slavery to greed. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>>I always like cold hard facts....no fake polar >bear >>>>>>pictures from me! >>>>>> >>>>>>href="http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/_plugins/Progr >a >>m >>>s >>>>/ >>>>>H >>>>>>istoricGreatLakesLevels/pages.cfm?page=table&LakeI >D >>= >>>1 >>>>& >>>>>Y >>>>>>earID=19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33 >, >>3 >>>4 >>>>, >>>>>3 >>>>>>5,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51, >5 >>2 >>>, >>>>5 >>>>>3 >>>>>>,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,7 >0 >>, >>>7 >>>>1 >>>>>, >>>>>>72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88 >, >>8 >>>9 >>>>, >>>>>9 >>>>>>0,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,101,102,103,104,1 >0 >>5 >>>, >>>>1 >>>>>0 >>>>>>6,107&MonthID=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12&Max=0&Min >= >>0 >>>& >>>>M >>>>>e >>>>>>an=1&CFID=5812714&CFTOKEN=60825872">http://www.lre >. >>u >>>s >>>>a >>>>>c >>>>>>e.army.mil/_plugins/Programs/HistoricGreatLakesLev >e >>l >>>s >>>>/ >>>>>p >>>>>>ages.cfm?page=table&LakeID=1&YearID=19,20,21,22,23 >, >>2 >>>4 >>>>, >>>>>2 >>>>>>5,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41, >4 >>2 >>>, >>>>4 >>>>>3 >>>>>>,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,6 >0 >>, >>>6 >>>>1 >>>>>, >>>>>>62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78 >, >>7 >>>9 >>>>, >>>>>8 >>>>>>0,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96, >9 >>7 >>>, >>>>9 >>>>>8 >>>>>>,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,107&MonthID=1,2,3, >4 >>, >>>5 >>>>, >>>>>6 >>>>>>,7,8,9,10,11,12&Max=0&Min=0&Mean=1&CFID=5812714&CF >T >>O >>>K >>>>E >>>>>N >>>>>>=60825872 >>>>>> >>>>>>Note that the overall Great Lakes level was lower >>in >>>>>>December 1925 than it is/was in Dec 2006 and also >>>>>>lower than the long term average. And I see no >zero >>>>>>nada info in the numbers to point to anything that >>>>>>shows the Lakes are dropping. And yes, the Great >>>>lakes >>>>>>are an interconnected series of lakes. Accually, I >>>>>>find it quite surprising that the levels are not >>>>>>dropping with the steadly larger amounts of water >>>>that >>>>>>are deverted from emptying into them along with >the >>>>>>increasing amounts that are drawn from them. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>Just recently he posted how cold it was there in >>>>>>>mockery of global warming. And you know, if it >>>>hasn't >>>>>>>happened to Oro, it hasn't happened. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> "lake huron rolls, superior sings, in the >>rooms >>>>>of >>>>>>>>her ice water mansion" (gordon lighfoot, wreck >>>of >>>>>>>>the edmond fitzgerald) >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Lake superior's status as an "ice water >>>>mansion" >>>>>>>>is in danger, as ice coverage has been well >below >>>>>>>>normal for years, and increased evaporation are >>>>>>taking >>>>>>>>a toll. Even with winter's dramatic comback in >>>>much >>>>>>>>of the eastern and central part of the united >>>>states >>>>>>>>in february and now in april, the greatest of >>>>>>american >>>>>>>>lakes is approaching all time record low >levels. >>>>>All >>>>>>>>the other great lakes are fed by superior, and >>>>>>>>superior is about a third of the total area of >>the >>>>>>>>great lakes, this may be a disaster for the >>entire >>>>>>>>great lakes region in coming decades. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Lower water means lighter loads, headaches on >>>Great >>>>>>>>Lakes >>>>>>>>Sunday April 15, 2007 >>>>>>>>By EMILY FREDRIX >>>>>>>>AP Business Writer >>>>>>>>MILWAUKEE (AP) When Fred Shusterich looks around >>>>the >>>>>>>>harbor on Lake Superior, he sees things he >hasn't >>>>>>seen >>>>>>>>in years little islands poking out of the water. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Shusterich is concerned, like many others >>>connected >>>>>>to >>>>>>>>the shipping industry, about what those islands >>>>>>>>signify off the city of Superior in far northern >>>>>>>>Wisconsin. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>``I think it may be another very poor year if >>this >>>>>>>>drought continues as far as water levels,'' he >>>>said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Now's the time when harbors along the Great >Lakes >>>>>>>>Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario and Erie thaw >>>>and >>>>>>>>shipping begins, carrying 10 percent of the >>>>>country's >>>>>>>>waterborne cargo. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>But excitement over the shipping season is being >>>>>>>>replaced with frustration over low water levels, >>>>>>which >>>>>>>>is forcing shippers to lighten their loads so >>they >>>>>>can >>>>>>>>move safely into harbors. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>The lighter loads sometimes hundreds of tons per >>>>>ship >>>>>>>>turn into headaches for suppliers that send >their >>>>>>>>goods on vessels, shippers and companies whose >>>>>orders >>>>>>>>come up short. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Midwest Energy Resources, the coal supplier >where >>>>>>>>Shusterich is president, just sent out its first >>>>>>>>vessel of the season with a load just under >>60,000 >>>>>>>>tons, shy of a typical 62,000-ton shipment, he >>>>said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Shippers don't expect the situation to improve >>>>soon. >>>>>>A >>>>>>>>warmer-than-normal winter this year means more >>>>>>>>evaporation because the lakes aren't protected >by >>>>>ice >>>>>>>>cover. They also worry about dredging the >process >>>>by >>>>>>>>which sand, silt and other debris are removed >>from >>>>>>>>harbors. Dredging doesn't solve the problem of >>low >>>>>>>>water levels. But it does give ships wiggle room >>>to >>>>>>>>carry more weight. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Unfortunately, the federal government, which >pays >>>>>for >>>>>>>>most of the harbor dredging, can't keep up with >>>>>>>>demand, said Glen Nekvasil, vice president of >>>>>>>>corporate communications for the Lake Carriers' >>>>>>>>Association, a trade group for shippers on the >>>>Great >>>>>>>>Lakes. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>For every inch the lakes recede, ships must >>reduce >>>>>>>>their loads between 50 and 270 tons, he said. At >>>>the >>>>>>>>end of last season, with waters particularly low >>>on >>>>>>>>Lake Superior, ships lost about 8,000 tons per >>>trip >>>>>>>>about 11 percent of their carrying capacity, he >>>>>said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>``Every ton has an impact. These companies, they >>>>>earn >>>>>>>>their living carrying cargo, so every lost ton >of >>>>>>>>cargo is lost revenue,'' Nekvasil said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Shipping is big business. Last year, a little >>more >>>>>>>>than 1 billion tons of goods such as iron ore, >>>coal >>>>>>>>and limestone, were waterborne in the U.S., he >>>>said. >>>>>>>>Shippers on the Great Lakes hauled 110 million >>>tons >>>>>>of >>>>>>>>cargo, with more than half of that iron ore. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Back in the late 1990s, shippers hauled as much >>as >>>>>>125 >>>>>>>>million tons of cargo a year on the Great Lakes. >>>>>Last >>>>>>>>year's numbers are at least partially due to the >>>>low >>>>>>>>water levels, but the steel industry which uses >>>>iron >>>>>>>>ore has been slow, too, Nekvasil said. The coal >>>>>trade >>>>>>>>has been steady and the roughly 70 ships in the >>>>U.S. >>>>>>>>fleet regularly sail, he said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Water levels have slipped for years and the >>>>forecast >>>>>>>>isn't getting any better. Lakes Erie and Ontario >>>>are >>>>>>>>faring better than the others this year, said >>>Scott >>>>>>>>Thieme, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of >>Engineers' >>>>>>>>hydraulics and hydrology office in Detroit. But >>>>>>>>numbers show they're still lower than last year. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Lake Superior is within a few inches of its >>record >>>>>>low >>>>>>>>599.5 feet deep, set in 1926. It's now about a >>>foot >>>>>>>>lower than last year and projections for this >>>>summer >>>>>>>>are that it'll get even lower. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>It's unclear how long the other areas will >>>maintain >>>>>>>>levels above record lows, because all the lakes >>>are >>>>>>>>connected, Thieme said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>``The lakes are so large that there's such a >huge >>>>>>>>volume of water. It takes a long time for some >of >>>>>>>>these impacts to move through the system with >>them >>>>>>all >>>>>>>>being linked,'' he said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>One way to combat it is to dredge so vessels can >>>>get >>>>>>>>in. This year the Corps of Engineers will spend >>>$20 >>>>>>>>million on dredging projects in the Great Lakes >>>>>>>>region, up from $19 million last year. But that >>>>>>>>increase is due to projects on Chicago >commercial >>>>>>>>ports, which are not dredged as often, said >Angie >>>>>>>>Mundell, project manager for operations for the >>>>>corps >>>>>>>>in Detroit. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Nekvasil's group argues the government should >>>>>>spending >>>>>>>>more. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>``This is a major issue for the industry. It's >>our >>>>>>>>primary focus right now,'' he said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Grain exporter Chicago and Illinois River >>>Marketing >>>>>>>>isn't waiting for the government to dredge its >>>>>harbor >>>>>>>>in Milwaukee. Richard Blaylock, manager at the >>>>>>>>company's site, said the company spent $200,000 >>in >>>>>>two >>>>>>>>years to dredge its own spot off the Milwaukee >>>>>>Harbor. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>With shipping season just under way, he's not >>sure >>>>>if >>>>>>>>the company will have to dredge for a third year >>>in >>>>>a >>>>>>>>row. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>``Dredging is expensive and I'd like not to have >>>to >>>>>>do >>>>>>>>it,'' Blaylock said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Iron ore mining company Cleveland Cliffs will >>>>simply >>>>>>>>hire more ships to carry its ore to customers >>like >>>>>>>>steel plants throughout the region, said Dana >>>>Byrne, >>>>>>>>vice president of public affairs for the >>>>>>>>Cleveland-based company. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>The dwindling water levels mean a typical vessel >>>>>>>>carrying between 25,000 and 30,000 tons will >have >>>>to >>>>>>>>reduce its load by 1,000 tons per trip, he said. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>``We're going to move the tons we need to move >>and >>>>>>>>we'll just have to do it,'' Byrne said. ``It's >>>just >>>>>>>>going to take more trips and added cost.'' >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Shusterich's company, Midwest Energy Resources, >>>>>plans >>>>>>>>to contract to have 450 ships again this year. >He >>>>>>said >>>>>>>>it'll continue to serve customers, like electric >>>>>>>>utilities and industrial companies, by rail and >>>>>truck >>>>>>>>when it can. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>``When we're running at the levels we're >running, >>>>it >>>>>>>>means you need more vessels to carry the same >>>>amount >>>>>>>>of cargo,'' he said. ``But at some point you run >>>>out >>>>>>>>of vessels.'' >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On the Net: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Great Lakes: >>rel=nofollow target=_blank >>>rel=nofollow target=_blank >>>>rel=nofollow target=_blank >>>>>rel=nofollow target=_blank >>>>>>rel=nofollow target=_blank >>>>>>>rel=nofollow target=_blank >>>>>>>>href="http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/greatlakes"> >h >>t >>>t >>>>p >>>>>: >>>>>>/ >>>>>>>/ >>>>>>>>www.lre.usace.army.mil/greatlakes >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Lake Carriers' Association: >target=_blank rel=nofollow >>target=_blank rel=nofollow >>>target=_blank rel=nofollow >>>>target=_blank rel=nofollow >>>>>target=_blank rel=nofollow >>>>>>target=_blank rel=nofollow >>>>>>>target=_blank rel=nofollow >>>>>>>>target=_blank >>>>>>>>href="http://www.lcaships.com">http://www.lcashi >p >>s >>>. >>>>c >>>>>o >>>>>>m >>>>>>>< >>>>>>>>/a> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>(Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press. All >>>Rights >>>>>>>>Reserved.) [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] |
| Subject | Author | Date |
| First you say the lake doesn't freeze over, they you say it does, please make up your mind! | jw | 20:54:39 04/25/07 Wed |
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