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Friday, May 08, 11:25:18amLogin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 123[4]5 ]


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Date Posted: Thursday, September 13, 07:05:14pm
Author: M's nemesis
Subject: So much for that Trump success

As we mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.

The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the US is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose fiscal and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.

There are 10 reasons for this. First, the fiscal-stimulus policies that are currently pushing the annual US growth rate above its 2% potential are unsustainable. By 2020, the stimulus will run out, and a modest fiscal drag will pull growth from 3% to slightly below 2%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/13/recession-2020-financial-crisis-nouriel-roubini

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