Something diff about that SG -- WASHINGTON BOARD

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Date Posted: 09:36:07 04/05/02 Fri
Author: MJ
Author Host/IP: wks-166-152-9.kscable.com / 24.166.152.9
Subject: Something diff about that SG
In reply to: Southern Gent 's message, "Re: Is torture the order of the day, do you think?" on 16:43:43 04/04/02 Thu

Who knows about the proposed invasion - read this.
[for discussion and educational use only. Fair Use]
STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Key U.S. partner warms to Iraq
Bahrain's move could offer clue to Washington's plans
Posted: April 4, 2002
5:00 p.m. Eastern

Bahrain took an odd and seemingly dangerous step April 3 by announcing that it will appoint an ambassador to Iraq. The tiny Gulf island state may be motivated by regional concerns, but given its close working relationship with the United States, it also may be betting that the appointment won't alienate Washington.

The source of that confidence might be a clue as to Washington's true plans for the region.

Manama downgraded ties with Baghdad in 1990 to protest its invasion of Kuwait, but relations have been warming recently: Bahrain has a charge d'affaires in Baghdad, and Iraq sent its first ambassador to Manama last year.

Even so, the appointment of an ambassador is a substantive leap in diplomatic relations. The appointment comes at a particularly awkward time, since the United States has declared repeatedly that it means to topple the regime in Baghdad.

It is telling that Bahrain � home of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters � chose this moment to announce the move. It could suggest that Bahrain is willing to alienate Washington at a decisive moment or, more likely, that the United States isn't quite as ready to strike Iraq as its rhetoric suggests.

Bahrain would be a key part of any U.S. military campaign against Iraq. Besides serving as headquarters for the 5th Fleet, it is also the site of a pre-positioned U.S. Air Force war-reserve depot and the base for regular U.S. Navy P-3 Orion reconnaissance operations for the region. Because of its strategic importance, Bahrain would be well aware of any U.S. military preparations in the region.

Given that the United States has been slowly building up forces in the Persian Gulf for the past few months, ostensibly for an attack against Iraq, it seems odd that Bahrain would be putting itself in such a difficult position. If the United States did strike Iraq, Manama would have two choices: either restrict the U.S. military on its territory from participating in the campaign � which Washington would find unacceptable � or recall the new ambassador and leave itself open to diplomatic censure from Iraq and possibly from Saudi Arabia.

With neither an attractive option, why send an ambassador to Baghdad now?

Manama likely has several reasons. Regionally, Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa may be aligning with Saudi Arabia, which adamantly opposes a U.S. assault against Baghdad. Bahrain is tied both politically and economically to Riyadh and also relies on the Sunni Muslim government there to counter Shiite Muslim Iran's influence in the Gulf. Bahrain's population is mostly Shiite, but a minority Sunni government is in power � an imbalance that is a constant source of tension.

Hamad was one of the few Gulf heads of state to attend the recent Arab League summit in Beirut, a rare demonstration of support for Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah that also may hint that Bahrain is likely to fall in line with Saudi policies regarding Iraq.

More important, though, may be the possibility that Bahrain isn't really worried about alienating Washington because it doubts the United States' commitment to striking Iraq, at least in the short term.

Since taking office and especially since Sept. 11, the Bush administration has threatened repeatedly to take down the Iraqi regime. In recent months, it has begun to look like Washington was doing more than ranting. There has been a quiet yet consistent buildup of U.S. troops in the Gulf region that is not directly a consequence of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. Logic followed that the buildup was meant as the first step of a military campaign against Iraq.

But what if Iraq is not really on the hit list, or at least not the first likely target? Washington's stated goal for hitting Iraq is to prevent al-Qaida from getting its hands on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. But there are other states more closely tied to al-Qaida that also could be sources for illicit weapons. The U.S. rhetoric against Iraq could be a cover story Washington is using to disguise its real intentions.

Bahrain may have decided to play hardball with the United States and act on its own geopolitical reality, but it also could be playing a double game. Manama may be letting Riyadh sweat the U.S. threat against Iraq while gaining brownie points by backing it up. At the same time, Bahrain isn't really risking anything because it thinks the U.S. threat is hollow � or at least less serious than it has been made out to be.

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Replies:

Re: Something diff about that SG -- Donk, 20:54:43 04/05/02 Fri
Re: Something diff about that SG -- Southern Gent, 22:10:05 04/06/02 Sat