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Date Posted: 02:12:59 04/01/02 Mon
Author: Danny
Subject: Re: MLB Predictions 2002
In reply to: Mike 's message, "Re: MLB Predictions 2002" on 20:17:36 03/31/02 Sun


>i am just gonna take a shot in the dark here and guess
>that the infamous seth is a cubs fan? who else would
>give them the W.S. win

Well, since you asked....
From Tim Cowlishaw, columnist for the Dallas Morning News.


If not the Yankees, then who?
Now that commissioner Bud Selig has performed his civic duty by informing fans that owners don't plan to lock out the players prior to the Fall Classic, we can consider the possible conclusions to another 162-game season.
And the instant reaction is always to say that it will be the Yankees. Yet even while adding former MVP Jason Giambi at first, Robin Ventura at third, Rondell White in the outfield and David Wells to the rotation, they will not be better in 2002.
Something is missing. Tino Martinez, Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius were not All-Stars anymore, but they were a big part of the guts of that great team. The loss of those character players along with the problems that come with a rotation, even an outstanding rotation, with so much age will keep the Yankees from capturing their fifth World Series in seven seasons.
Here's a look at 28 other teams that won't win, which, if we do the math right, should give us the winner.
Let's throw out the easy ones, the ones who aren't even competing for a ring.
There go the Expos. And the Pirates. And Bud's Brewers. And, spend as they might, the Rockies. And the interesting but too young Padres. And the Reds, who just can't get along with or without Griffey. And the Marlins, to the disappointment of both of their fans.
In the American League, there go the small-market, small-minded Royals. There go the Devil Rays with that awful park. There go the Blue Jays with their 60-cent Canadian dollars. There go the Orioles without their Iron Man in the infield. There go the Tigers, hopeless even in a bad division.
You could put either Anaheim or Texas in the AL Central, and they would contend for a division title. But the Rangers' pitching is falling apart faster than anticipated, though it was never going to be great anyway. They look like an 85-win team that could latch onto a wild card if all breaks right, but that's the end of the line.
The Angels don't have enough quality on offense to compete.
Seattle won 116 games last year, and it wasn't a mirage. But a rotation that starts with Freddy Garcia, 39-year-old Jamie Moyer, 34-year-old Paul Abbott and journeyman James Baldwin needs more than the safety of Safeco Field to get it done.
Oakland still has the arms, but you don't subtract Giambi and Johnny Damon and advance.
Of the three teams that could win the AL Central, the contraction-dodging Minnesota Twins are the best on paper. But their lineup is still too meek, not enough power to pound that baggie in right field. The Indians have lost too much punch in saying good-bye to Juan Gonzalez and Roberto Alomar. The White Sox have had pitching problems in the spring and lack the depth in the rotation to do the job.
There's new life in Boston, but the Red Sox are counting on full recoveries from Pedro Martinez, from Nomar Garciaparra and from Jason Varitek. That's asking for too much, especially for Boston.
In the loaded NL West, Arizona won't have the staying power to defend its crown. There's a lot of age on this roster, and Matt Williams is already out. The Dodgers won't get better just by losing Gary Sheffield and Chan Ho Park. The Giants won't get another 73 homers and .515 on-base percentage from Barry Bonds, and even that wasn't enough last year, was it?
The Mets cling to the notion that Mo Vaughn and Alomar will give them a new look. It's still a look that can't match the Braves pitch for pitch when it counts. The Phillies will make a better run at Atlanta than New York, but they're at least a year away.
Atlanta's mix of new and old arms is the division's best, but that offense with Vinny Castilla and Wes Helms doesn't frighten anyone. Bobby Cox has had five better teams than this one that didn't win.
There's a lot to like about St. Louis and Houston both. Tons of offense. But too many questions in the Cards' rotation erase them from the picture, and I think Houston's ballpark is going to wear out their young pitchers and test their patience.
And so there it is.
2002 ? Year of the Cubs.
Sammy Sosa has never batted with the likes of Fred McGriff and Moises Alou behind him. Jon Lieber is the game's most anonymous 20-game winner. There's nothing anonymous about Kerry Wood, and for his attitude alone, his arm deserves one more year of magic. Juan Cruz already is a solid starter, and Mark Prior might be the best young pitcher in the minors. He won't stay there all year.
If there was a problem created by the injury to closer Tom Gordon, the Cubs fixed it when they robbed Florida of Antonio Alfonseca on Wednesday. Besides, in losing a closer, the Cubs are merely following the path plowed by Arizona, which lost closer Matt Mantei after just seven innings last spring.
If you require further evidence, a recent personal field study of Las Vegas casinos revealed nothing better than 12-1 odds on the Cubs to win the Series. In some places, their odds were as low as 6-1.
Somebody knows something. There's a reason they call them wise guys.
Cubs win. Cubs win

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Replies:

  • Re: MLB Predictions 2002 -- Crystal, 10:38:10 04/01/02 Mon
  • P.S. -- Crystal, 10:42:18 04/01/02 Mon
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