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Date Posted: 19:50:06 10/18/01 Thu
Author: Danny
Subject: My OPS answer to JP

It isn't that I hate it I guess, it's just that I think it is largly overated and worthless. I realize that when judging prospects, you don't get to see them play all of the time, so you have to look harder at their #'s. I dug up a few #'s for you to consider. This also will include BB/K, though once again, I realize that you are talking about prospects.

Player A: OPS 692 43/149 BB/K 636 AB
Player B: OPS 689 53/89 BB/K 456 AB
Players A and B are both considered better than average in the field and Player A is a better baserunner.
Based on that evidence, you would probably want Player B over Player A though they are both comperable. The only large difference is that Player A stuck out 60 more times than Player B.
Their Identities?
Player A: Alex Gonezalez
Player B: Carlos Guillen
Gonzalez is considered by many to be in the 2nd class of short stops. In another era, or maybe in the NL, he would be an All Star. Guillen is though of as the weak link in the Seattle offense, usually hitting 9th. So while OPS might rate them as similar, I am guessing if you asked GM's around baseball who they would take, most would prefer Gonzalez.
"OK, Danny" you say, "Nice job looking those #'s up, but its not like Alex Gonzalez is Tejada and Carlos Guillen is some Benji Gil, those guys are pretty close in talent"
Ok then, I will offer up another comparison.

Player A: 807 OPS 14/57 BB/K in about 250 AB
Player B: 801 OPS 43/89 BB/K in over 600 AB

Both Players are considered to be good in the field, making the spectacular play but failing to make the regular play at times. Both also are known to make stupid plays in the field and occasionally on the bases. Based on the evidence provided, you would say they were about even. I can't find ratios, but I wouldn't say thier BB/K rates are all that different when compared to their AB's. Player B had 2 and 1/2 times as many at bats.
No, lets lift up the curtain and reveal the two player's names.

Player A: Benji Gil
Player B: Miguel Tejada

Now in fairness, Gil is mostly a platoon player while Tejada is an everyday (literally) player. But my point is that OPS and BB/K are not end all be all stats.
The downside of this comparison is that now Weas is going to start telling us how Benji Gil should be up there in the top tier, hehe (sorry, I couldn't resist)
I think better than OPS, you could take OBP+SLG-AVG, because in OPS, the batting average is counted twice. I do not know if there is currently a stat in use that uses that formula, but I think it would shed a bit better light on things than OPS.
As far as OPS itself is considered. I just do not see it's value. A great player is going to have a very high OPS, a mediocre one won't. Plus, it won't tell you where a player should hit, or any idea of what kind of hitter he or she is. If a guy has an 800 OPS, That doesn't tell you much. If that 800 is comprised of a 400 OBP + a 400 SLG%, then obviously that is a guy who you would want to lead off for you, because he gets on base alot, but doesn't hit for much power. If that 800 OPS is a result of a 500 SLG % and a 300 OBP, then you would think he is better suited for hitting 5th or 6th.
So an 800 OPS might tell you that he is a pretty decent player, it still isn't as valuable as OBP or SLG% if you want to know what kind of player you are dealing with.
As far as BB/K, that is flawed a bit too, though not as much. I think that when looking at a player's #'s, the more you look at, the better idea you have of him. You can have fine players, even great players with not so great BB/K ratio's. For instance Arod had 75/131 BB/K this year.
I guess I have a problem with stats being a total judge of things. I will quote the great Darrell "Razor" Reagh, Star's color commentator here. "Stats are like a bikini, they show you alot, but they don't show you everything".

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