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Date Posted: 21:50:31 06/08/02 Sat
Author: 蘿蔔糕
Subject: 世界盃爆冷同賽馬有關係（見內文）

今屇世界盃爆冷連場，種子隊法國，阿根廷，葡萄牙，意大利出線機會危危乎，其實以賽馬角度睇，賽果絕非太出奇。
開幕戰法國ＶＳ塞內加爾，法國賽績好而成熱門，但球員在各地聯賽硬仗連場，疲態難免，更有傷在身，反而塞軍首戰決賽周，如同初出馬，血統角度睇，根本法國陣中亦有韋拉等球員源於此地，估計會是匹前景不俗的質高馬，加上整隊塞軍均在法國聯賽搵食，經驗已有，所以爆冷不出奇，報章賠率讓球半是抵博，從投注角度看，一Ｗ（塞軍Ｗ７倍）三Ｐ（下盤）是絕對上算。可惜香港賭波不是合法呢！
另一場意大利ＶＳ克羅地亞，意軍第一場輕勝弱隊厄瓜多爾，而克軍則熱倒負於墨西哥，賽前意軍被一面倒看好，反而上屇季軍克軍被大眾認為實力退化會提早出局，結果克軍爆冷勝出，其實等如一匹有質馬熱倒一場令馬迷洗腦，一招回馬槍爆冷，事後球迷會嘆句“克軍上屇成績比意軍好呢！”
從哲學分析，足球與賽馬一樣，只要整體水準上升，形勢會平均，沒有任何一方有絕對贏面，熱捧絕不適宜。
回說世盃，小弟開鑼前已睇好“西班牙”奪魁，因為抽組有利，等如快活谷排了內檔，其本身質素亦不差，現今公認西班牙聯賽水平冠絕全球，當地球員經驗亦有所得益，唯一隱憂只是守門員，因卡斯拿斯太後生，經驗與表現穩定性略有不足。

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