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Date Posted: 18:14:50 09/13/04 Mon
Author: saursoor
Subject: Re: In order for Heras to lose, somebody has to beat him
In reply to: crit racer 's message, "Re: In order for Heras to lose, somebody has to beat him" on 15:55:52 09/13/04 Mon

>>Who, at this stage of the game, is likely to improve
>>enough to beat even this "weakened" Heras? It seems
>>to me only Valverde and perhaps Nozal have a real
>>shot. Landis is not going to hold on much longer.
>
>In response to your subject heading: you aren't paying
>attention, Ludwig. Heras isn't in the lead.
>Defending champion does not equal current champion.
>He hasn't won this race. That's why you hold the
>race, to see who does come out on top in the end.
>It's silly for you to annoint Heras the winner now.
>
>By your "system" of determining the Vuelta "winner,"
>you'd have been wrong at least 3 out of the past 4
>Vueltas. You'd never have predicted a Casero win.
>You'd never have predicted the Aitor Gonzalez win.
>You'd never have predicted Heras's first win with
>Kelme.
>
>I disagree that this race is only about Landis vs.
>Heras. Heras hasn't looked that strong. I think
>Valverde, Nozal and even Mancebo are still contenders
>too.
>
>Remember, Heras has to win the Vuelta. It won't be
>handed to him. Armstrong won the 2004 Tour despite
>not having even one mountain stage where he left
>EVERYONE behind. But Heras subpar in the mountains,
>and I consider him indeed to be subpar this year, is
>less likely to lead to overall victory in the Vuelta.

my two cents: heras has at least won. none of the others, however vaunted, can claim that.

landis: to my eye, hasn't yet demonstrated the tactical intelligence, or killer instinct.
mancebo: is due for a jour sans. he's almost a lock to have one.
nozal: has to show he's matured enough not to crack, like last year. plus, until heras shows weakness, what's the point? saiz would never allow nozal the space.
valverde: hey, that's why we're all watching, right? this is his put-up-or-shut-up moment, as far as i'm concerned. what else of significance has been on his schedule thus far?

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