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Date Posted: 11:26:34 09/09/04 Thu
Author: ChrisH
Subject: Re: Heras has some serious competition this year
In reply to: LAHobo 's message, "Re: Heras has some serious competition this year" on 18:01:25 09/08/04 Wed

>I'm glad to see you're supporting your guy, and I will
>admit things are looking better for Heras now that
>Vino is out of contention and Sevilla doesn't seem to
>have recovered from his injuries. However, I wouldn't
>be so dismissive of Beloki and Hamilton. The jury is
>still out on whether Beloki has regained his form but
>he looked much better than I expected today and should
>be able to put some serious time into Heras in the
>ITTs.

Doubtful. You also said Beloki is better than Heras in TTTs despite the fact that Liberty beat Saunier in the TTT. This isn't the Tour and 2002 is history. Beloki would be fortunate to gain 2 minutes in the flat TTs. Even then, he'll be dropped in the high mountains like he has been all season.

In regards to Hamilton, based on the current
>times and factoring the two flat time trials, Heras
>will probably have to make up 4-5 minutes in the
>mountains. If Hamilton has form anywhere even close
>to his peak it's going to be a big hurdle for Heras to
>overcome.

If Hamilton is to have a chance of winning, he has to be at his peak. Then, he has to overcome his inconsistency in the mountains and do it with a questionable back. Hamilton wasn't near the front in stages 3 and 5, but hopes springs eternal, I guess.

>I agree about Cunego, and I would also add that I am
>skeptical about Menchov (I'm unconvinced he can keep
>up in the high mountains). Valverde is going to be
>tough, though, and I wouldn't rule out Mancebo or
>Sastre from contention.

Forget about Sastre. Last year he had a solid Tour and looked good in the first week and then proceeded to disappear. Look for the same this year. Mancebo is a bit stronger so he can have two solid, but not great, GTs. If I had to throw another name into the mix, I'd take Aitor Gonzalez. However, Heras won't give him a head start this year.

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