Re: Polls/Rankings -- Bucknell Bison Sports

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Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings

Author:
Bison137

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Date Posted: 20:47:27 12/08/05 Thu
In reply to: Bucky 's message, "Polls/Rankings" on 18:10:37 12/08/05 Thu

The Sagarin rankings by the end of January are pretty accurate and the algorithms behind them are well thought out. At this point, obviously, it is very early.

On the other hand, few rankings make less sense than the RPI. A 75 point loss to a high ranked team is better than a 75 point win over a bad team. That is why the loss to Villanova did not hurt the Bison. Sadly, though, the games vs Army etc will cause the rankings to slowly drop no matter what. Let's hope we can beat St Joes and HC twice, and also that we get assigned a good bracket-buster game. My guess is that, with all of the Bison publicity, we have a good chance to get matched up with a good team in one of the televised games. That would be interesting.

By the way, the way the RPI works, Bison fans need to hope for lots of wins by Bison opponents. The better that Syracuse, DePaul, Villanova, etc do, the better for the B.U. rankings.

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[> [> Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings
Author: eric... [ Edit \| View ]	Date Posted: 22:29:23 12/08/05 Thu well, obviously wins by our opponents is important to our rpi, but it is quite an insignificant factor compared to winning percentage. based on some quick mental math, bucknell cannot lose more than four games this year if they want a chance at an 'at large' birth to the ncaa tournament. three or fewer and it would be nearly impossible to leave them out.

[> [> [> Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings

Author:
unwired
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Date Posted: 22:49:07 12/08/05 Thu

actually the rpi was 7 before the VU game. i would think an espn bracket buster tv appearance is a done deal barring a complete collapse. the bison are definitely media darlings at the moment, and the espn poll mentioned elswhere on this board had them far ahead as the team people wanted to see more of on tv. now watch them end up matching us with gonzaga.

[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings

Author:
bison137
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Date Posted: 00:51:00 12/09/05 Fri

I could see ESPN loving a Gonzaga-B.U. matchup, although they may try to pair teams more geographically given that some of the teams may have fairly tight travel schedules. Northern Iowa is another tough team. If they do pair teams geographically, then we could see Iona or Manhattan, both tough matchups on the road but games the Bison could win.

As far as the ESPN poll, I see now that Iona is putting forth a fierce "get out the vote" campaign and has moved into a slight lead. However, the Bison vote total is still much more impressive since they lead in 44 of the 50 states, based on the state-by-state totals shown by ESPN )not sure how they do that). New York State, however, has far more votes than any other state thanks to the Iona effort. There obviously has been no such effort from B.U. as the Pennsylvania totals are quite low.

[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings

Author:
KenZ
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Date Posted: 09:01:05 12/09/05 Fri

1) Gonzaga does not participate in the bracket buster. Nevada is probably the most notable team given their current ranking.

2) Iona has caught the Bison in the ESPN poll. interesting that their athletic department is actually pushing their get out the vote campaign (an email from an assistant ad). i think anyone who looks at the results even the least bit critically would conclude Bucknell overwhelmingly garners the most interest. in this case, i 100% agree with the sentiment that the poll has no value, team performance is what matters. okay, i'd still like to see BU come out on top anyway.

[> [> [> Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings
Author: res [ Edit \| View ]	Date Posted: 08:22:05 12/09/05 Fri Actually, opponents winning percentage counts twice as much as own winning percentage in calculating RPI.

[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings

Author:
eric...
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Date Posted: 13:54:48 12/09/05 Fri

yes, but regardless of who you play, your opponents winning percentages are going to approach 50%....

for example, kansas had highest rated strength of schedule last year (opponents and opponents opponents) at 0.4689. norfolk state had the lowest ranked at 0.3030. in a 30 game season, that only accounts for 20 more wins. in other words, the difference between the best and worst team in gained rpi points is almost 50% larger in the 25% that is attributed to winning percentage than in the 75% attributed to stength of schedule.

so, in short, bucknell winning its games is far more important than anything else going on.

[> [> Subject: Re: Polls/Rankings
Author: res [ Edit \| View ]	Date Posted: 08:30:09 12/09/05 Fri Bison137, I agree with you regarding the Sagarin ratings, although the teams are now "connected", using his terminology, so the ratings are already significantly more reliable than they were a couple of days ago.