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Date Posted: 10:20:37 10/19/04 Tue
Author: siempre
Subject: Jim Willie DOW TRANSPORTS & GLOBALIZATION CURVEBALLS

With its expansive import trade to the USA and emerging manufacturing offshore and service outsource from the USA, powerful limitations are placed upon finished product prices and domestic wages inside the US Economy....Once upon a time, trade flows and matched capital flows would dictate a direct response from the FOREX. Not any longer, not in the age of globalization,Global trade requires the transportation of a wide assortment of commodities. At the same time, retail consumption has led to aggravating US trade gaps which have fostered Asian growth, and US indebtedness, which has its roots in the 1980 decade....When business investment takes place on foreign soil, the USA is not the ultimate beneficiary. When technology transfer accompanies the direct investment abroad, the USA gives away its only comparative advantage...
Global trade requires the transportation of a wide assortment of commodities. At the same time, retail consumption has led to aggravating US trade gaps which have fostered Asian growth, and US indebtedness.....The transportation phenomenon is aberrant, and has little to do with S&P profitability or the health of the US Economy. In my considered opinion, the Transport index confirms the rising Commodity price index (e.g. CRB) and the dynamic Asian export trade measures....The US Economy has lost its manufacturing base, has gone haywire in consumption, and now sees evidence of neurotic statistics as a result....
One can go further with the argument of divergence. As production costs rise from increased prices paid for raw materials and energy, the end user suffers while the shippers benefit....

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