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Date Posted: 13:07:35 01/06/05 Thu
Author: siempre
Subject: how much silver?

Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 10:26
siempre33 (Ted Butler's latest) ID#147464:
Copyright © 2002 siempre33/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Friedman’s Theory holds that, on a relative and absolute basis, there is less silver remaining underground than any other important metal. There just isn’t that much left anymore. If he is correct, it should make you run, not walk, to buy silver. Because that would mean that not only are we running out of above ground silver, we are also running out of silver below ground ( in the earth’s crust ) much sooner than anyone has imagined.

So profound is Friedman’s finding that I dismissed it at first, yet given my respect for the man, I investigated his claim. I went to the mineral surveys of the United States Geological Survey ( USGS ) and reviewed their latest studies on the major metals for 2004.

The following table reflects their information. I was looking for how many years of each metal remained to be mined. I’ve divided current annual world production into known world reserves ( reserves that are proven ) . I’ve also divided annual production into the much larger resource base, which is the amount of silver thought to still exist in the earth. I’ve rounded the numbers in some instances to keep it simple.


I chose the statistics from the USGS because they are comprehensive and free of any known bias. It certainly is not my intention to mislead anyone or distort the information. I believe the USGS statistics to be generally accurate. Any other sources I checked all confirmed the USGS data.

Commodity Production Reserves Resource Base Reserves Resource Base

( ………Metric Tons……….. ) ( … .Years Remaining… )

Aluminum 30 million unlimited unlimited 100+ 100+

Copper 14 million 470 million 940 million 33+ 67+

Lead 2.6 million 67 million 140 million 23 48

Nickel 1.4 million 62 million 140 million 44 100

Zinc 8.5 million 220 million 460 million 26 54

Silver 20,000 270,000 570,000 14 29

Gold 2600 43,000 89,000 17 34

PGM 350 70,000 80,000 200 200+

( Platinum+Palladium )
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Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 12:22
trotsky (siempre, 10:26) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
even the permabulls must surely see that something doesn't quite add up here.
it's an example of selective data focus, not dissimilar to the 'visible inventories' ploy.
for instance, SSRI alone reports about 2.2 billion ounces in silver resources. these are NOT proven reserves, and yet we can be pretty sure that they are present in the earth's crust.
iow, the discrepancy between what exists below ground and proven reserves reported by miners has to do with the economics of resource extraction. it makes e.g. no sense for SSRI to prove reserves it isn't planning to extract in the near future.
furthermore, looking at the USGS report, a proven reserve base of 570,000 tons vs. annual production of 19,000 tons doesn't exactly strike me as giving cause for alarm. we're looking at reserves representing 30 years worth of production. so well before the remaining below ground silver ( not to forget, resources are continually upgraded to reserve status as extraction proceeds ) becomes a real concern, most of us will already inhabit the next world.
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Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 15:11
ted butler (trotsky@12:22) ID#233236:
Copyright © 2002 ted butler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It’s not like you to post with so many substantive incorrect assertions.

1. The US Geological Survey is considered the premier geological statistician. If you know of a better source, just list it and we’ll dissect their data

2. SSRI is hoping to hit 1 billion ounces in silver resources, not the 2.2 billion you wrote. Seeing as SSRI advertises itself as the having the largest silver resources of any North American company, this does not suggest that the USGS is way off in its data stating 18 billion ounces

3.. The remaining mineral reserves has nothing to do with the “visible” inventory debate. That has to do with the word “verifiable”. If you can document more than 150 million ounces of world silver bullion inventories, just do it. Just don’t post some crap that GFMS says there are hundreds of millions of ounces in secret European dealer inventories that only they can see.

4. You may think that less than 30 years of remaining silver resources is no big deal, because that may be a long time away in terms of an individual’s lifetime, but I’m surprised you would reach such a conclusion, as it seems beneath your analytical standards. Do you only invest in commodities that will run out in your lifetime? Please list them.

You’ve conveniently ignored the basic premise of the article, namely, that according to the US premier statistical gatherer, there is less silver left in the ground, in terms of years supply remaining, than any other important metal.

In the good news dept, the tech funds appear to all cleaned out in silver, and close in gold. The COT resolution is the same as it ever was, with the dealers engineering the brain dead tech funds out of the market. Silver is now a flat-out buy and maybe gold as well. Or you could wait for the Nutty Prof’s P&F signal at $ 8+ Gone for the day.
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Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 15:41
Hambone (ted butler) ID#263170:
Copyright © 2002 Hambone/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To assume you know, or even have a good idea about the amount of any given mineral left in the Earth's crust is quite a stretch, even for the most gifted of analysts.

Surely you know that. I suggest that your original skepticism was correct, rather than your subsequent acceptance of the figures you cite.

To assert that the amount of silver or any other mineral has changed in proportion to other minerals in the Earth's crust flies in the face of all geologic knowledge and history.

Sometimes we believe what we want to. Mull your conclusions about this over a few more times.

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