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Date Posted: 08:32:47 04/02/05 Sat
Author: siempre
Subject: El Nino....the rising tide in Molymania

El Nino: warming up for MolyMania
Harry Barr has a keen ear for sirens signaling a hot new theme that lends itself well to the efforts of this tireless promoter, be it a new gold discovery in Venezuela, a nickel discovery at Voisey's Bay, soaring platinum group metal prices, Alaska gold or a new mania for uranium projects. Sometimes he is quick and latches onto good plays as he did in Venezuela, Labrador and with Pacific Northwest at River Valley, but sometimes his timing is a little off as I suspect will be the case with Canalaska's rush into uranium where there is now quite a bit of competition from other juniors. With El Nino I think he is ahead of the curve. El Nino Ventures Inc (ELN-V: $0.44) has been an inactive shell in Harry Barr's stable since August 19, 1999 when a predecessor called Corum underwent a 12:1 rollback. El Nino optioned the Sassy property near Teck's Pogo gold discovery in Alaska which the junior still holds but has not done any work on for years. In October 2003 the TSXV pushed El Nino onto the NEX board where it hides companies deemed inactive. El Nino completed a private placement of 1.5 million units in late 2003 which cleaned up most of the company's liabilities and which was largely taken down by Harry Barr who now controls 1,750,299 shares plus a bunch of warrants. A year later El Nino did another private placement of 1 million units at $0.20 and announced its intention to acquire projects in the uranium, silver and molybdenum sectors. As of this writing El Nino has not acquired any projects but since the announcement the MolyMania buzz has increased noticeably and it would not surprise me if Harry Barr makes molybdenum the primary focus of El Nino. I include El Nino in this MolyMania writeup because the stock, unlike all the rest of the moly juniors, is well structured to deliver big price gains if Harry Barr latches onto good molybdenum plays without incurring heavy dilution for El Nino's capitalization.





There are presently 4.6 million shares issued, of which Harry Barr controls 38%, and 8.2 million fully diluted if the $0.20 private placement closes, leaving the junior with about $150,000 working capital. Although El Nino meets the classic criteria of a well-structured bottom-fish controlled by management with a good track record funding and promoting their projects, and on that count should be a top priority bottom-fish recommendation at current prices, my participation in the recent financing prevents me from making a formal bottom-fish recommendation. El Nino is presently featured on Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online as a "Shellfish", a category for experienced bottom-fishers who can recognize a bottom-fish without being told it is one. When such KBFO featured companies acquire a decent project they are reclassified as "Gamefish", which may receive analytical coverage from me if their story is topical.

Conclusion: As you can see, all these molybdenum juniors are flawed in some way, which makes you wonder, when you also take into account the uncertainty that MolyMania will materialize in 2005, why bother to speculate in these juniors? Well, if these projects did not have their flaws, the juniors would never have gotten hold of them, and if MolyMania were already a raging fad, the juniors with moly plays would be trading considerably higher. In the real world the potential for big gains always comes with big risks. The trick is to find speculative situations where big risk actually correlates with big gain potential. Most of the time the juniors offer big risk and small gain potential. I have tried to make a case why this time is different for molybdenum prices, why the current spike to record price levels will not be followed by a collapse to historical levels, why instead a new equilibrium long term price several times higher than the historical average of the past two decades lies ahead. If my analysis proves correct, these moly juniors can overcome the flaws associated with their projects and turn into big winners.

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